“The estimate seen by MobileTechWorld, while not directly controlled by Microsoft, would mark a distinct reversal of the current pattern for Windows Mobile,” Electronista reports. “Just 3.7 million Windows Mobile phones shipped in the winter and could leave Microsoft shipping less than half IDC’s number this year.”
Electronista reports, “Sales could be lower still as any rebound from the formal launch of WP7 in the fall could be offset by declines as customers either wait for the new OS or decide on alternatives like Android and iPhone.”
Full article here.
MacDailyNews Take: Buy One Windows Phone, Get 10,000 Free.
Hmmm, perhaps they meant 2111 instead of 2011.
When pigs fly
I predict that Microsoft will ship exactly ZERO Windows Phone 7 devices, and an embarassingly low number of WP7 licenses.
How can IDC have “data” on phone shipments out to 2011???
Sounds disingenuous not to call it what it is, a wild ass guess meant to apease a major client (MS).
“Land of the Lost Intro”
Just how will Microsoft sell so many Windows 7 phones?
Microsoft plans to double the number of retail outlets to four,
problem solved.
Sell it like commodities, next to the toilet paper aisle, with discount coupons in weekly mailbox stuffings, aimed at the below $50 market, with barely a margin…
Nope, still won’t work.
zero percent probability
ridiculous
sorry just calling it what it is
I saw this story yesterday (or late last night) and laughed. First, Microsoft has to actually ship it before the end of the year. Second, they have to enlist enough hardware partners to make phones for it and wireless carriers to support it. Third, they have to sell it in a crowded marketplace that has been transformed by Apple and iPhone.
Microsoft may get halfway there if (1) it ships well before the end of 2010 and the 2010 sales count toward the “by end of 2011” number, (2) MS essentially gives it away for free to match the licensing cost of using Android, and (3) do a lot of “get one free” deals with the carriers.
Frankly, if Microsoft reached 15 million by the end of 2011, that would be a pretty good achievement. But now, it will be seen as a failure.
@ Ploogman
You are correct sir. The partners MS expects to sell these phones are abandoning WinMo. Their MeToo Effort (TM) won’t win anyone back.
hahahahhahhaaaahahahh..
“Right now were selling millions and millions and millions of phones a year, Apple is selling ZERO phones a year. In 6 months they’ll have the most expensive phone by far ever in the market place….. let’s see, you know how’s the expression go, let’s see how the competition goes.”
– Steve Ballmer after the first iPhone announcement.
I don’t think Msft will sell 30m.
Even if they do, at $15 to 18 a license (based on current WM pricing), 30 m sold = $18 x 30m = $540 m gross.
Apple will sell 30 to 40m iPhones or more at about 500 a pop (remember 199 etc is subsidized by contract) = 15 to 20 billion gross.
these are gross revenues, net will be somewhat different.
Still even if MS succeeds with their fantasy projections (which I bet they won’t) WP 7 looks like another money loser (factor in costs like R&D;, marketing etc) or at best lackluster profit product.
Also with so little profit in it how much will Msft devote to WP 7 tech? How will WP 7 division survive and get resources in the chronic Msft office politics when Win Desktop divisions make so much more money?
haaaaaaaahahaa best mdn take ever haaaaahaaha
30 Million??
That’s so Precious!
And in contrast, Apple will probably sell 30 million 4G iPhones by march of next year…
“Buy One Windows Phone, Get 10,000 Free.”
Hahaha… but you forgot to add “POS” to the phrase.
“There’s no chance that the iPhone is going to get any significant market share. No chance. It’s a $500 subsidized item. They may make a lot of money. But if you actually take a look at the 1.3 billion phones that get sold, I’d prefer to have our software in 60 percent or 70 percent or 80 percent of them, than I would to have 2 percent or 3 percent, which is what Apple might get.” Steve Ballmer
The only problem is you have less than 7% market share Steveooo.
Wording is important: Microsloth expects to sell…
Fortunately, they’ve learned to live with disappointment.
By 2011 I expect to sprout wings and fly to the moon.
Yeah, Microsoft expected to sell more than a few Zune players by now, too.
Ballmer’s crystal ball must be hazy – well, it does have to look back at him in the mirror every morning!
Maybe by the *end* of 2011…
Face it – there are millions of Windows conforming nonconformist lemmings who will buy almost anything non-Apple just to say they did. They call us fanbois, but better a fanbois than a lemming.
Could there be any greater contrast between Microsoft and Apple?
Apple created an industry-changing product and set a modest sales goal, thus setting themselves up for blow-the-doors-off success. Microsoft has created a me-too product and set an almost impossible sales goal, thus setting themselves up for almost inevitable and ignominious failure, even if the product and sales are fairly decent.
This is pure stupidity at the very top of Microsoft.
Never mind how ridiculous the idea is that 40 million people would buy one, especially since it hasn’t even been released yet… MDN, you might want to change your headline to either:
Microsoft expects to sell 30 million Windows Phone 7 devices by end of 2011
or:
Microsoft expects to sell 30 million Windows Phone 7 devices by 2012
Because your headline makes it sound like they anticipate selling 40 million of something that doesn’t even exist yet by the end of this year. Before 2011 starts.
@ my MacBook
I think the “error” you pointed out was intentional.
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