“There’s an interesting chart in a report to clients issued early Thursday morning by Morgan Stanley’s Katy Huberty,” Philip Elmer-DeWitt reports for Fortune.
“What caught my eye, however, was what her proprietary research shows about the impact of the iPad and other tablets on the broader gadget market, starting with netbooks. As her chart shows, sales growth of these low-cost, low-powered computing devices peaked last summer at an astonishing 641% year-over-year growth rate,” Elmer-DeWitt reports. “It fell off a cliff in January and shrank again in April — collateral damage, according to Huberty, from the January introduction and April launch of the iPad.”
“Her timing seems a little off,” Elmer-DeWitt reports. “Steve Jobs didn’t unveil the iPad until Jan. 27, yet the NPD data she cites is dated Jan. 10.”
MacDailyNews Take: Apple “tablet” rumors were off the charts well before Jan. 27.
Elmer-DeWitt continues, “But in support of her theory, she offers a Morgan Stanley/Alphawise survey conducted in March that found that 44% of U.S. consumers who were planning to buy an iPad said that they were buying it instead of a netbook or notebook computer.”
Full article, which also shows that iPod touch might be next in line to be cannibalized, here.
MacDailyNews Take: Nearly every netbook that’s replaced means one less Windows sale for Microsoft and one more OS X sale for Apple. Watch out for flying chairs!
• The tablet market has only succeeded as a niche market over the years and it was hoped Apple would dream up some new paradigm to change all that. From what I’ve seen and heard, this won’t be it. – John “Bloated Gasbag” Dvorak’s iPad assessment, MarketWatch, January 29, 2010
• You know, I’m a big believer in touch and digital reading, but I still think that some mixture of voice, the pen and a real keyboard – in other words a netbook – will be the mainstream on that… It’s a nice reader, but there’s nothing on the iPad I look at and say, ‘Oh, I wish Microsoft had done it.’ – Bill Gates, Microsoft Chairman, February 10, 2010
Bill Gates. Ever the visionary.
• The Apple iPad is not going to be the company’s next runaway best seller. – John “B. G.” Dvorak, MarketWatch, February 12, 2010
• The iPad has fewer capabilities than a netbook, in a similar size. Not a good start. – Lee Gomes, Forbes, March 05, 2010
• iPads will top the publicity charts this week when they launch, but netbooks will still top the sales charts, and far outsell iPads into the foreseeable future. The iPad will remain an expensive, niche device compared to all-purpose netbooks. – Preston Gralla, PCWorld, March 30, 2010
Gralla’s may be a record incubation time for a foolish quote. Congrats, Preston! Our Take in response to Gralla was: “Ford’s Model T will top the publicity charts this week when they roll off something Ford calls an ‘assembly line,’ but horse-drawn carriages will still top the sales charts, and far outsell automobiles into the foreseeable future. The Model T will remain an expensive, niche device compared to all-purpose horse-powered vehicles. – HorsecartWorld, September 23, 1908.”
• Anyone who believes this thing is a game changer is a tool. – Paul Thurrott, SuperSite for Windows, April 05, 2010
Leave it to Paulie to immediately break the record for ineptitude.
[Thanks to MacDailyNews Reader “JES42” for the heads up.]
Even though I do not have an iPad, I cannot see why I would want to pay similar money for an ordinary netbook when the iPad is available. For the price, and in oh so many ways, it is a superior product. So, this is not surprising, but it is validation that outside MS entrenched Windows desktop world, Apple is a dominant force.
Welcome to the future. Apple added sugar and sex to the cloud and we’re happily falling in line.
“…and that, my liege, is how we know the earth to be banana shaped”
That graph shows year over year growth in sales.
Thinking it shows virtually no sales since the iPad started selling would be a mistake.
@Contrarian
I don’t know…I went to the Apple store last night to get first-hand, touchie-feelie with the iPad……eh….it found it heavy, but like everyone has said–very very responsive.
I tried typing–my arms don’t yet have the muscle memory for the keyboard that my thumbs do on the iPhone keyboard–I can hold the iPhone and type at the same time.
Then I see my daughter on her netbook–which she loves(she likes Apple products as well) and I think–that just looks right somehow!?
THE iPAD IS TOO BIG!! I should be kindle sized and similarly weighted–that’s what I’d buy!
When Apple finaly makes a netbook–nevermind what Steve the Jobs says–I’m buyin’ it!
Apple got everything right but the size.
MacDailyNews Take: Most every netbook that’s replaced means one less Windows sale for Microsoft and one more OS X sale for Apple. Watch out for flying chairs!
—————————————–
If the netbook is being replaced by an iPad, then technically it’s not an OSX sale, it’s one more iPhone OS sale for Apple… Partly the same, but definitely very different.
The few netbooks I have seen in the wild were not that impressive. People who have looked at my iPad are amazed and most say they want one. Netbooks did show that people want small very portable devices. iPad blows netbooks away in size, usability, and cool apps. Star Walk blows peoples minds. Netbooks are last years toys.
@btaylor,
there will without a doubt be an iPad mini. Probably 6 inches or so, much like the Kindle and Kindles DX.
@ btaylor,
The iPad is too heavy? What kind of girly boy are you?
There seems to be a little confusion in the Dewitt comment and Mac Daily News response about the numbers after the names of months in the chart. These numbers usually indicate the year, not the day. This would seem to be substantiated by the YOY (Year on Year) label for the vertical blue bars.
“HorsecartWorld”…
MDN, you guys are funny!
@Al
TY
@btaylor,
I can understand your point of view. But, I remember when the iPhone came out. I thought, who needs it? I have a cell phone, and an iPod, eh, I’m fine. Then I actually spent time playing around with a couple that friends had. It took a bit of time (until the 3G came out), but then I understood. The iPhone has changed my life, particularly the way I can do business and untether myself from the office.
So here’s the iPad. It is different. I may resist and say I don’t like…or I don’t want…based on small bits of time. However, once you get used to something, it may truly be wonderful. So, the question is…do I not like something new because it is new, and my genetic desire for consistency and keeping the “known” prevents me from embracing it? Or, are my initial instincts and feelings correct? Only time will tell. So, keep trusting your initial feelings, but keep open to the idea that you just haven’t “clicked” over to something new yet.
Heck, I never IM’d until last year. So I am not fast adopter of technology. I do like quality products and have been using Apple products since ’92 (when I could finally afford my own and through off the shackles of DOS and early Windows). I still remember programming in BASIC and Fortran and…Pascal? Sheesh, I feel old. Maybe an iPad will make me feel young (at heart)?
@Big Als MBP
Quoting “@btaylor
The iPad is too heavy? What kind of girly boy are you?”
*Giggling like a little school girl* . . . but when talking about the iPad, it’s like the 11 year old girl in that new movie: a stone cold assassin that kicks ass and even if it’s just slowing the YOY growth, that’s taking the leg off of Microsoft’s netbooks from the kneecap down.
Good times!
It won’t take long for the socialist liberals to try and destroy Apple’s initiative! People aren’t allowed to keep their wealth or have success anymore don’t ya know!!! Apple’s success is in consistent, visionary excellence! That should be encouraged and rewarded! Liberals see it as an anti-trust violation!!
If we can keep the horses from farting, Obama and the Dems are looking to bring back those “all-purpose horse-powered vehicles.” This time with glow stick lights! (No open flames boys and girls).
I think this is the equation:
(people start to realize netbooks suck) + (the iPad is really great) = lower netbook sales
Staring at that Excel chart reminds me why I went into graphic design and not accounting.
Where is Google Chrome netbook? The reason why Google built the Chrome browser was its anticipation of rolling out the Chrome netbook that will use the browser as its platform for surfing the net with blindingly fast speed and to kill the laptops from the Window and Mac platforms. But the present Chrome browser is slower than Safari and is still at beta stage. With the advent of the iPad, Apple has practically rendered the Chrome netbook obsolete. The iPad can do far more things than the vaporous Chrome netbook which is only suitable for surfing the net. Apple’s iPad startup time is instantaneous and its battery life is a long 12 hours with 30% to spare even with a heavy-duty workload of videos and games.
Google’s launch of the Android OS is the antithesis of its total dependence of the web. By copying Apple’s approach of using apps instead of the browser for everything, Google is silently admitting its strategic flaws. Google is clueless and out of focus. It appetite to gobble up everything out of its core competencies will lead to its downfall.
@btaylor,
iPad heavy? Surely, you’re joking. To me, iPad feels solid, robust, sturdy, and the battery life is fantastic. Apple could have made it significantly lighter by putting smaller batteries in it. I’ve now had my iPad for over a month, and not once have I thought of it being “too heavy.” Enjoy your netbook and Windohs.
@iMaki
I don’t share your pessimistic view of liberals. It appears to me that competitors and bureaucrats are the ones you should blame. Adobe allegedly complained. Now the government through bureaucrats do their job. Their job is not to be efficient, but to carry out their mission. The mission of the DOJ and FTC are to determine if a complaint is valid and worthy of deeper investigation.
I remember when European bureaucrats were complaining about iTunes, Apple, and DRM. They eventually realized that (1) Apple did not care about DRM and would (and did) drop when record labels did, and (2) Apple had a built in way to avoid DRM (and that music ripped from CDs was DRM free).
So, although I am happy to blame liberals for bad policy (cons too, but never libertarians), I think your claim here is false. But perhaps it was just a bit of rhetoric.
They have to act like they’re considering Adobe’s anti-competitive claim against Apple. On the surface it can sound like Apple’s stifling innovation. In the end, they’ll see the light though. Even if they do a dog and pony show, don’t think they’d be so stupid to try and intervene. Even I’d give them hell for that.
Ha, the kapcha down below is “left”! Very funny!
@btaylor,
“Then I see my daughter on her netbook–which she loves(she likes Apple products as well) and I think–that just looks right somehow!?”
—– Then buy a netbook. PS, if your daughter is 1/2 your size, then her netbook seems twice as big to her.
“THE iPAD IS TOO BIG!! I should be kindle sized and similarly weighted–that’s what I’d buy!”
———- Then buy an iPod touch. Just a thought here,
” width=”19″ height=”19″ alt=”grin” style=”border:0;” />
“Apple got everything right but the size.”
——–
” width=”19″ height=”19″ alt=”grin” style=”border:0;” /> Actually if you gain 600 lbs, the iPad will seem just the right size. Er maybe a kindle is in the books for you. I hear they are really light and last 10 days not 10 hours.
Then again there is always the PADD used by Starfleet. Of course those are harder to buy on e-bay.
Just a thought,
en
@Macromancer, actually it’s:
((people start to realize netbooks suck) + (the iPad is really great)) * (desktop OS is on its way out for the mass market) = lower netbook sales
Could we not have a yearly world wide TV show whereby each of these fools is lead on stage by a monkey (though to the audience no doubt it may look the other way around) and forced to spout their offending nonsense before an appropriate laughing audience armed with all manner of decaying fruit and veg.