Morgan Stanley: Consensus forecast for iPad unit sales is too conservative

Morgan Stanley has reiterated their above-consensus iPad shipment forecast of 6 million units in 2010 and 7 million over the first 12 months on the strength of results from their proprietary survey of 2,500 consumers. The consensus forecast of 4-5 million iPad units is too conservative, in the firm’s view, and Morgan Stanly see potential upside to their estimates with the introduction of a broader array of apps and new distribution partners in the U.S. and international markets. Every 1 million incremental iPad units and related accessories equates to $0.20-$0.25 EPS, according to the firm.

Morgan Stanley’s survey indicates strong consumer interest in the iPad with 4.6% of respondents indicating extreme interest and another 16.4% somewhat interested in purchasing an iPad.

MacDailyNews Note: This is before most people have seen their friends’ and/or family members’ iPads.

Morgan Stanley believes that the survey points to approximatley 4-5 million U.S. iPad shipments and 7-9 million global shipments in the first 12 months.

MacDailyNews Take: Moving in right direction, but still too low.

According to the survey, consumers see broad iPad uses cases including Web browsing and email (90%), multimedia consumption (67%), print media consumption (60%), gaming (57%), and other applications. 3,500+ iPad optimized apps are currently available and 7 apps + 1 ebook were downloaded, on average, per device in less than one full week following the launch.

Morgan Stanley says that, given the versatility of the iPad, cannibalization is a threat. Notebook (44%), iPod touch (41%) and eReader (28%) markets are the most at risk according to the firm’s survey.

Much more info in the full report here.