Morgan Stanley: Consensus forecast for iPad unit sales is too conservative

invisibleSHIELD case for iPadMorgan Stanley has reiterated their above-consensus iPad shipment forecast of 6 million units in 2010 and 7 million over the first 12 months on the strength of results from their proprietary survey of 2,500 consumers. The consensus forecast of 4-5 million iPad units is too conservative, in the firm’s view, and Morgan Stanly see potential upside to their estimates with the introduction of a broader array of apps and new distribution partners in the U.S. and international markets. Every 1 million incremental iPad units and related accessories equates to $0.20-$0.25 EPS, according to the firm.

Morgan Stanley’s survey indicates strong consumer interest in the iPad with 4.6% of respondents indicating extreme interest and another 16.4% somewhat interested in purchasing an iPad.

MacDailyNews Note: This is before most people have seen their friends’ and/or family members’ iPads.

Morgan Stanley believes that the survey points to approximatley 4-5 million U.S. iPad shipments and 7-9 million global shipments in the first 12 months.

MacDailyNews Take: Moving in right direction, but still too low.

According to the survey, consumers see broad iPad uses cases including Web browsing and email (90%), multimedia consumption (67%), print media consumption (60%), gaming (57%), and other applications. 3,500+ iPad optimized apps are currently available and 7 apps + 1 ebook were downloaded, on average, per device in less than one full week following the launch.

Morgan Stanley says that, given the versatility of the iPad, cannibalization is a threat. Notebook (44%), iPod touch (41%) and eReader (28%) markets are the most at risk according to the firm’s survey.

Much more info in the full report here.

26 Comments

  1. Gawd, these guys are sad. They should take there eyes and hands off their Microsoft controlled computers and lay hands on a Apple product.

    At least they would have some idea of what they will get in the coming years. Clueless and mis guided!

    Next….,

  2. This is all well and good, but when the heck is Apple going to tell us when we can buy our 3G iPad? You would think that with them today confirming that it will be here “by the end of the month”, they would know the date already.

    I’ve already got eight iPhone/iPad apps and 18 iPad apps waiting in the queue in iTunes for a sync.

    They are getting restless.

  3. iPad has made me appreciate my iPhone’s ability to do all it can in such a small form and it’s blazing speed and battery life is the new benchmark that has made the new MBPs extended battery life and 50%+ performance speed increase long overdue welcomed features.

    Will ever give up my iPhone, MBP and certainly not my iPad for anything – This sentiment seems to be the same from all our users.

    So much for cannibalization …

  4. Played with it at Best Buy and have 3G on order. Still, wouldn’t mind version in smaller form factor. Would bet that next iteration will have iPad “nano” option.

  5. @ Mel Gross
    Based on what’s going on with supply of the wi-fi model, I would simply assume April 30 if I were you. If it comes earlier you will be pleasantly surprised.

    I have made an effort NOT to see the iPad in person so that I can more easily hold off until my b-day in June. I think it would be a nice gift for my wife to give me!

  6. Apple would sell more if they could make more. But it takes time to make a quality product.

    Morgan Stanley just wants to start doing their surveys on the iPad.

  7. Apple will probably announce when 1MM units are sold (my guess as soon as the 3G model goes on sale!). We won’t know officially how well it is selling until the end of this quarter unless sales are completely off the chart and Apple announce a new milestone (2,3 or 5MM) before then.

    The iPad will be huge but do you really think it will sell even half as much as the iPhone in the next 12 months?

  8. @ drz

    > Still, wouldn’t mind version in smaller form factor. Would bet that next iteration will have iPad “nano” option.

    It’s called an iPod touch. ” width=”19″ height=”19″ alt=”smile” style=”border:0;” />

  9. @currentinterest,
    “Once the iPad cuts the “need a computer with iTunes” umbilical cord, demand will be incredible, far above any current projections.”

    I just do not see it happening anytime soon. Remember that you only need one computer to run many iPads. One house computer, a family full of iPads.

    Just a thought,
    en

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