MacDailyNews Take: Simple logic dictates that initial pent-up demand would be higher than on subsequent days.
Elmer-DeWitt continues, “Tello, who is better known on the Web as Deagol (after a Hobbit in J.R.R. Tolkien’s The Lord of the Rings), attributes roughly half of the estimated 120,000 first-day sales to ‘pure overexcited fanboism.’ The real demand for Apple’s tablet computer in the weeks before its April 3 release, he says, is probably closer to 30,000 per weekday and half that on weekends… ‘My best guess, although very tentative given the early stage and few data we have so far, would be that they hit the 1 million unit milestone by the second week after it ships,’ he told Fortune. ‘But this is a very speculative guesstimate based on just a weekend of pre-orders.'”
Elmer-DeWitt reports, “Tello’s estimates are based on 120 orders for 137 iPads over 39 hours, starting at 8:30 a.m. ET Friday… Tello’s bottom line estimate: 152,000 pre-orders over 72 hours. This does not include iPads reserved for pick-up.”
Full article here.
MacDailyNews Take: Not enough data is known. The marketing has just begun; how will that affect pre-orders? Plus, this only includes on-line pre-orders, not iPads reserved for pickup in Apple Retail Stores.
[Thanks to MacDailyNews Reader “Lynn W.” for the heads up.]
Ordered mine on Friday, wife’s on Saturday [both WiFi/3G; hers 32gb, mine 64gb]; sent the data to these folks. I wil be surprised if it takes until the middle of April to hit 1,000,000 sales. There will be another PR boost at shipment, and in store visibility will drive these off the shelves.
Now, if the MBP line could just get a refresh.
Honestly.. how do they even know the number of pre-orders per hour anyway? I thought I saw an earlier article talking about looking at the order numbers over several hours and doing the math from there. But I’m pretty sure Apple order numbers include EVERYTHING that Apple sells and ships, not just iPads. Heck, when I had a replacement Mighty Mouse shipped out through Apple Care it had the same type of order number. The reasoning for these estimates seems a bit too simple for me.
Nor does it include store and regular distribution channel stocks.
They know because Deagol already factored out the known average number if orders per day. His iPad estimate is after subtracting out the daily average.
Also, each order includes whatever accessories a customer may have ordered (accessories are part of the same order number if you order from Apple online.)
To account for the possibility some customers may have ordered 2 ipads, deagol multiplied each order by 1.1.
Deagol has good analysis. His quarterly predictions always beat the pros consistently.
In fact there’s a genius somewhere in the himalayas that says that this is pure guesswork and voodoo, because the real numbers will like always not be known till Apple spells them out . If they spell them out soon at all.
@breeze
Yes, we know that, which is why deagol is explicitly only estimating online pre-orders only
And he was clear
“‘But this is a very speculative guesstimate based on just a weekend of pre-orders.'”
All this is nothing but speculation. Everyone speculates their way to happy numbers, then speculates themselves to unhappy numbers, etc. driving the share prices up and down and round and round.
I have ordered mine, not because I am fanboy (which I think I am) but because I want to give it to my wife as a present and I want to make sure it’s not sold out on the day of our anniversary (4/19)
At this reduced rate of orders, it’s going to take a long time to get to 6 billion – the number required for everyone to deal with the changed world that iPad has brought on.
Ordered a 32GB/wi-fi unit on Friday morning. I pondered getting a 3G model, but decided I didn’t want to wait.
Besides, I can always craigslist the wi-fi unit and go to my neighborhood Apple to Store and pick one up when they’re readily available… if I want.
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AND, like cogitoergomac, I’m waiting for a MacBook Pro refresh. i7 processor, please! And Apple, put the damn ExpressCard/32 slot back into the 15-incher where it belongs!!!
“But this is a very speculative guesstimate based on just a weekend of pre-orders.”
very speculative guesstimate << speculative guesstimate < guesstimate = speculation
based on a (guesstimate of) weekend of pre-orders << based on real sales data
combine “very speculative guesstimate” and “based on a weekend of pre-orders, represented as X
X ~ fantasy < opinion picked out of a book by randomly flipping to page and blindly pointing at a paragraph << meaningful
iPad Sales PLUMMET After First Day Success
Any other company with a high initial product demand would be an “opening day success.” This jerk and so many others, like pigs used to living in filth, do not understand the phenomenon of actually appreciating a track record of transcendent tech products, has to call it “pure overexcited fanboism.”
This is pure overstated snobbery of mediocrity.
Hopefully, Apple will well organize the first selling days of iPads… would be too sad seeing all these people standing in lines for tones of hours!
Speaking of Venezuela,
Did you know that Movistar, the official iPhone carrier, HAS NOT SELLING THE 3GS YET?
And to add insult to injury, the 2008 iPhone 3G HAS BEEN OUT OF STOCK FOR ALMOST A YEAR?
Seriously, how can Apple let this joke of a carrier sell 0 iPhones?
“HAS NOT SELLING THE 3GS YET” should’ve been “HAS NOT EVEN STARTED SELLING THE 3GS YET”
“how can Apple let this joke of a carrier sell 0 iPhones” should’ve been “how can Apple let this joke of a carrier get away with selling 0 iPhones”
Sorry, my disgust impaired my sentence-constructing ability…
Is there a way to complain to Apple directly?
Deagol isnt a hobbit. Deagol was the brother of Smeagol.
Smeagol murdered Deagol to get the ring that Deagol found at the bottom of the great river, the Withywindle(?).
Smeagol then became known as Gollum.
Dont you guys know ANYTHING?!
Here comes the three stooges soon. “Enderle, Thurrott, & Dvorak with their typical spin. Can’t wait to see what Mo, Larry & Curly have to say.
Deagol is as accurate a speculator out there. He’s not a basher.
@Derek in Milan
In fact, Deagol and Smeagol were hobbits. As I recall, they were Stoor hobbits.
Let’s just keep in mind that these numbers are HUGE for a product nobody has seen, used, held.
Once the doubters get to the Stores, they’ll be ordering again.
@Micro Me… actually, they were “a hobbit like people”
Not quite hobbits, but close. Pre-hobbits maybe?
@ Jim – TIV
Hmmm, this is getting really deep.
Further research informs me that Smeagol’s people were apparently descendants of the Stoor branch of hobbits. So, hobbit-like, yes. Pre-hobbits, no.
Isn’t it great to have an off-topic thread that doesn’t involve American politics or climate change?