“We’re expecting consumer and commercial PC buyers alike to be more experimental with new types of PCs, especially because of their lower price points,” said Bob O’Donnell, program vice president, Clients and Displays, in the press release. “Hardware vendors and software developers should seize the opportunity to promote differentiation by rewriting the computing experience to match the new variety of PC sub form factors arriving in the market.”
IDC’s predictions for the PC industry in 2010 are:
• Ultrathins will be under 5% of total portable PC shipments. The focus on ultrathin PCs will continue to grow in 2010, but the value equation for many consumers is still not compelling enough to drive significant growth.
• Mininotebook shipment growth will drastically slow and plateau. Lack of differentiation and declining prices for other portable PCs will translate into shipment growth rates in the low double digit range, just under the portable PC average for the remainder of the forecast period.
• Average selling price (ASP) declines will slow dramatically. Stronger market demand from both the commercial and consumer markets should translate into solid shipment growth this year, making it less likely that the market will aggressively lower ASPs to spur growth.
• Shipments of portable PCs with WiMAX embedded will surpass shipments of portable PCs with 3G cellular embedded in 2010. While activation rates for 3G enabled notebooks may be higher than WiMAX enabled notebooks, the foundation is being laid for future WiMAX adoption.
• Share of all-in-one desktops will double. Continued interest from consumers, combined with new momentum in the commercial sector, will drive strong shipment growth and help all-in-one desktops to capture nearly 10% of the worldwide desktop market in 2010.
• Portable PCs will account for more than 60% of all PC shipments. The drivers that have made portable PCs so popular have not changed. Although portable PC shipments will grow well past the 50% mark, value conscious desktop adoption in emerging markets will slow this growth slightly.
• 10% of new enterprise desktop client deployments will be virtual. The expected commercial market rebound will help in the process of experimenting with new computing models, enabling virtualization of the desktop client to gain some traction.
• Touch-enabled portable and desktop PCs will gain little traction. Without compelling touch-specific software, consumers aren’t likely to buy touch-enabled PCs in large quantities. In turn, application developers will hold back until a larger installed base is available.
• Apple’s launch of the iPad will not spur increased sales of Windows-based Tablet PCs. Although Apple’s iPad could find success, its shipments won’t count in IDC’s Tablet PC numbers since it doesn’t run a full operating system. Forthcoming tablet products from traditional PC makers such as HP and Lenovo are likely to garner interest, but not high shipment figures.
DVD will remain the dominant optical drive type in PCs. Quite simply, according to IDC, DVD is “good enough” from both a price and picture quality standpoint to withstand the challenge from Blu-ray for dominance in desktop and portable PC drives.
The IDC document, Personal Computing Top 10 Predictions for 2010 (Doc #222035), provides IDC’s top 10 predictions for the worldwide PC market in 2010. Each prediction is followed by analysis and the rationale for the prediction. The document also offers the views of IDC’s PC analysts for what major trends will start, continue, or finish in 2010. More info here.
Source: IDC
[Thanks to MacDailyNews Reader “Fred Mertz” for the heads up.]
“… it doesn’t run a full operating system.” Right. It’s going to open a whole new market and not a niche.
“…its shipments won’t count in IDC’s Tablet PC numbers since it doesn’t run a full operating system.”
Are these people plain stupid?
=:~)
“… it doesn’t run a full operating system.”
Why? It doesn’t have enough viruses? It’s too easy to use?
“You can’t fix STUPID!”
Ron White
In the PC world, a full operating system includes viruses and malware!
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In other words, “…we have no clue as to what to compare this to at this time, but rest assured that once it’s changed the world, we will!’
Actually I like that they are not including the iPad in the tablet numbers. We’ll still be able to compare the numbers – Apple vs. everyone else, but it does not lend the iPad numbers to creating a market for tablets.
I too think that not including iPad in typical tablet category is a good thing. Their reasoning is a little narrow, but could work to Apple’s advantage in the long run.
They can’t track it anyway because Apple will be conducting 99 percent of the sales and they don’t release their numbers to IDC
Well, they shouldn’t include iPad sales in the Tablet PC numbers. That would give a drastically overinflated perception of Tablet PC sales but the “it doesn’t run a full operating system” statement is just plan dumb! It indicates the writer doesn’t even know what an “Operating System” is!
I’d rather run 17/63rds of an operating system made by Apple than a full one made by Microsoft.
“Although Apple’s iPad could find success, its shipments won’t count in IDC’s Tablet PC numbers since it doesn’t run a full operating system.”
LOL
Of course it is a full operating system. DOS did not allow you to use a mouse – does that mean it was not a full OS? Granted, there are some limitations, however you can program almost anything you want to do on a PC on the device.
THAT is an OS.
“… Apple’s iPad could find success, its shipments won’t count in IDC’s Tablet PC numbers since it doesn’t run a full operating system.” WTF! So, does that mean as Apple rips the heart out of Windows netbooks and Tablet PCs that are operating with an unnecessary blotted OS that the iPad will not be counted! Idiots!
That is like calling a 2 wheeled motorcycle a non-vehicle because they didn’t put the extra 2 wheels on it! IDC counts a PC that runs a time clock, shipping scale, … as a Windows PC and they do only a tinny fraction of what a iPhone, iPad touch and the iPad can do. (And they can do and will be used for those jobs too.) These IDIOTS need to get a real understanding of what a computer is and will be soon!
“MS offered us money not to include iPads as a tablet
– to inflate the Windows market share for tablets
– to complain how Apple has a Monopoly in the iPad category”
I don’t know what the fuss is here. Yes, their wording was awkward, but clearly what they meant by “full operating system” is one that contains the full range of services and inputs/outputs and is menu/mouse/icon driven. That’s certainly true, but it doesn’t detract in the slightest from the iPad’s power and potential.
In short, IDC is acknowledging what so many here have been saying: the iPad is a “revolutionary” device that’s in a class by itself, and should be evaluated accordingly.
Well they should have just said:
“We’re not going to count iPads as Windows Tablet PCs because they’re not Windows Tablet PCs.”
@Chad
Yes they are stupid. Most of the Windows/PC centric blooger, ANAL-list ate complete close minded gotta have 8 USB ports and Windows, are completely clueless.
@ Bokweb;
The fuss here is that a “full operating system” is not defined by what you say it was “clearly meant” to be, and saying it’s so because you say so doesn’t make it so.
IDC blew it.
They are wrong.
Stop making apologies.
If Apple empowers the iPad to update without plugging it in to a computer w/iTunes, IDC should definitely re-think this decision. Until then, they have a (thin) leg to stand on.
Oh, and no, this is not a good thing for Apple. It will serve to minimize Apple’s iPad success and ghettoize it.
Tablet pc = suck.
IDC: obsessively charting obsolescent computer technology for over 30 years!
@Moo: “The fuss here is that a “full operating system” is not defined by what you say it was “clearly meant” to be, and saying it’s so because you say so doesn’t make it so.”
If IDC somewhere defined “full operating system” I missed it, and if their definition is different from what I thought they meant, then I’m wrong. Please cite your source, because by your own lights the mere fact that you said I’m wrong doesn’t make it so.
Folks,
You’re missing the point as to what IDC is saying.
Try reading the tea leaves in the following manner:
“…because Tablet PCs suck, we’re not going to count the iPad in that category, which prevents PC Tablet manufacturers from claiming a sudden renaissance in sales for the PC Tablet…” (sic).
-hh
If IDC includes iPad numbers they might lose their readers and sponsorship money.
They should just start an iPad category.