“Russ Wilcox is chief executive of E-Ink, the company that makes the displays for the Kindle, Sony Reader, and Barnes & Noble Nook. That puts him squarely in Apple’s line of fire, given the e-reader aspirations of its long-awaited iPad,” Andy Greenberg reports for Forbes.
“But Wilcox is taking the first shot. He boldly—and perhaps a bit wishfully—predicts that e-reader devices using E-Ink will outsell the iPad this year. ‘E-readers will outsell iPads because of the simple economics of the consumer device market,’ Wilcox told Forbes in an interview,” Greenberg reports. “His reasoning? ‘It’s triple the weight and 30% thicker than an e-reader,’ says Wilcox. ‘You need two hands to hold it. It’s got a backlit screen, and it’s too expensive to give one to everyone in your house.'”
“The idea that single-purpose e-readers will outsell Apple’s newest wondergadget is a bit farfetched,” Greenberg reports. “Despite the deluge of new e-readers debuted at CES like the Que, the Skiff and countless others, Forrester Research predicts that only 6 million of the devices will sell in 2010.”
Greenberg reports, “By comparison, Apple revealed in its earnings earlier this week that it had sold 3.6 million Macbooks and 8.7 million iPhones in just the last three months. It’s safe to say that the iPad, unless it were a total flop, will sell at least 6 million units in the nine months after its March release.”
Full article here.
MacDailyNews Take: As Greenberg explains, Wilcox will be proven wrong. Throw another one into the iCal!
[Thanks to MacDailyNews Reader “Henry A.” for the heads up.]
I haven’t bought an actual paper book in nearly two years but I’ve read lots on my iPhone. I expect to do the same with newspapers and magazines on my new iPad. I also expect new magazines and other content to be developed for the iPad because the economics of paper is prohibitive for smaller audience publications. If I save half the cost of the paper-based products on iPad subscriptions that will be huge and I will actually subscribe to more than I do now. Fewer trees and more enjoyment. Thanks Apple
I’ll give the iPad this: It should revolutionize the comic books market.
That about cements the deal for me.
Same idiotic comments were made about the iPhone before release by competing-makers and look where that got them.
E-ink can’t do Magazines, children’s books, coloring-books, comics, catalogs and these are just off the top of my head.
I think where Apple “failed” is it’s presentation of iPad. Instead of showing NYT app, they should have demoed a Sports Illustrated app or something with a lot more interactive photos.
iCal away, MDN! We love it!
Que comes in 4GB ($650, WiFi only) and 8GB ($800, ATT 3G). Screen is 10.7 inches, 1/3″ thick, e-ink screen. Battery life longer, but no color or other apps.
Skiff comes in 4GB, only 3GB for document storage and SD card slot (price unknown), sold only through Sprint, has WiFi and 3G (no data plan). Fewer details, but e-ink screen.
The Que is DOA. Why in the world would you buy one for $650 when you can get an iPad for $499 with 4x the storage? Just for an ebook reader? Wow.
Game. Over.
Other than recycled iPhone FUD is what are the “experts” are offering us?
ereaders would have to come way down in their pricing to look more attractive against the ipad. Like really cheap
HAH! Talk about apples and oranges – he doesn’t DARE make the real comparison to a Kindle DX, of course…
I’ve been highlighting some of the things I’d like to see in iPad … but in my comment it’s a given that iPad will crush Kindle.
This sounds desperate, someone saying “everything’s going to be okay” when they know it isn’t.
Did Wilcox read about the issues with the Kindle’s E-Ink screen?
http://www.amazon.com/Kindle-Wireless-Reading-Display-Generation/product-reviews/B0015TG12Q/ref=cm_cr_pr_hist_1?ie=UTF8&showViewpoints=0&filterBy=addOneStar
Logically speaking, why would an E-Reader outsell an iPad when an iPad *is* an E-Reader (along with the NUMEROUS other functions)?
Russ Wilcox is a moron… ♪
A Kindle DX with the same size screen is $489. No color, no apps, no email, no web, etc. etc. etc. For another 10 bucks, I’ll take the iPad.
How will we even know if the iPad outsells the e-ink readers? Amazon, for one, doesn’t release sales numbers. It’s all guesswork.
(Of course, not telling us how many you’ve sold is a pretty clear indication you’re not selling all that many.)
@iPhone User
“Apple… should have demoed a Sports Illustrated app or something with a lot more interactive photos.”
Peel Away swimsuits?
First of all how could the iPad outsell or crush Kindle when it doesn’t even have e-ink I don’t know many people who will be able to look at the iPad’s screen for hours reading an entire novel.
I’m not sure the goal is to dominate the market here, but I’m willing to be wrong. I think Apple and the iPad will sell well, and maybe for the first year it’ll come in second place (due to an end of second quarter release), but I don’t think anyone can be so bold as to declare that the Kindle will handily outsell the iPad.
In my more subdued moments I can completely see myself listening to music on an iPad and reading seattletimes.com—something that can’t be done on a Kindle.
Were it not basically dangerous to do so, I think more owners would be using the Kindle for kindling, once a more expensive—but more useful—ereader comes available in the form of the iPad.
eReaders will eventually be under $100. Or they will not survive. But technologically speaking, they are cheap to make and that price point is not unreasonable. e-ink is much less expensive than LCD screens.
Apple has totally shaken things up with the $499 price point. I, for one, expected $899 and believed that would be a huge mistake. At $499, the iPad (despite the name-snickering; really? What else do you call it?) might find a market after-all. But, $499 is still not a price you can easily buy one for each member of the family, and ebook readers really need to be personal.
We shall see – Apple did a lot of things right here though. I want one more than I thought I would.
FUD…FUD…FUD…FUD. These people need a day job!
the iPad has one real advantage and that it will have plenty of colorful porn. Has to be a porn lover’s dream machine.
I like our strategy. I like it a lot.
MDN: time for The MDN iCal Wall of Shame that with a special Anal- ist of the Quarter prize being a full page Feature, track record etc…
I’m sure they will sell more than the iPad during the 1st quarter.
“Of course, not telling us how many you’ve sold is a pretty clear indication you’re not selling all that many.”
I was thinking the same thing about AppleTV.
Funny how MDN always “iCals” things but you don’t hear anything afterwards. Maybe some of these predictions are too far from the mark.
A friend mentioned why buy a device that does only one thing when you can buy one that performs multiple functions.
“I like our strategy. I like it a lot.”
That was fun! I like it too.