Sidahmed writes, “Also, after a review of recent trends, I reduced non-iPhone margins from 33% to 32%. Overall, my GAAP EPS estimate for Q1 decreased modestly from $2.44 to $2.41 on $12.7B in sales while non-GAAP EPS increased from $3.67 to $3.97 on $16B in sales. The Street GAAP EPS estimate has remained at $2.04 on revenues of $11.9B.”
“Based on current accounting practices, for the year ending September 2010, Apple could post EPS of $9.70,” Sidahmed writes. “If they transition from subscription accounting starting this quarter, Apple should earn $17.70. About $3.60 of this is from prior deferred iPhone revenues, so I am looking at FY10 non-GAAP EPS of around $14 on revenues of $55.6B. Additionally, I expect their year end cash position to be somewhere north of $45B. Depending on how you want to calculate EPS (e.g. with cash, without cash, GAAP, non-GAAP EPS etc), forward P/E will be somewhere between 10 and 15. Forward EV/FCF will be about 12.”
“[My] estimates do not include any speculation about the iSlate,” Sidahmed writes. “Adding an iSlate, increasing iPhone sales and the shift away from subscription accounting, I expect 2011 EPS to approach $20. Any way you value it, Apple is looking good.”
Full article, with charts of all the details, here.
This kind of news does not bode well for Microsoft’s Zune product. Nor for all of their Zune based technology.
…and AAPL will drop.
and El Guapo states the painful obvious. The way AAPL has performed over the past decade or so, you’d think every anticipated product and achievement announcement were, instead, a Dividend payout! Price goes up in advance, then drops right after.
And there’s still no dividend! 🙁
I don’t know about the rest of the US, but in my town (Portland, OR), every time I walk into an Apple Store, it is jammed with people. And these people have the credit cards out.
Apple Store in Calgary is the same. Even with a quiet mall, the apple store is doing much business. …. And the service is great! More staff than any other shop in the place.