“As I promised in November, [here] is my updated Q1 2010 earnings estimate for Apple,” Stefan Sidahmed writes for Seeking Alpha. “Due to numerous analysts’ calls for strong iPhone sales, this update increases iPhone unit sales from 8.8 million to 10 million. With subscription accounting, this increase in iPhone sales does not have much of an effect on GAAP EPS, but it does give non-GAAP EPS a nice bump.”
Sidahmed writes, “Also, after a review of recent trends, I reduced non-iPhone margins from 33% to 32%. Overall, my GAAP EPS estimate for Q1 decreased modestly from $2.44 to $2.41 on $12.7B in sales while non-GAAP EPS increased from $3.67 to $3.97 on $16B in sales. The Street GAAP EPS estimate has remained at $2.04 on revenues of $11.9B.”
“Based on current accounting practices, for the year ending September 2010, Apple could post EPS of $9.70,” Sidahmed writes. “If they transition from subscription accounting starting this quarter, Apple should earn $17.70. About $3.60 of this is from prior deferred iPhone revenues, so I am looking at FY10 non-GAAP EPS of around $14 on revenues of $55.6B. Additionally, I expect their year end cash position to be somewhere north of $45B. Depending on how you want to calculate EPS (e.g. with cash, without cash, GAAP, non-GAAP EPS etc), forward P/E will be somewhere between 10 and 15. Forward EV/FCF will be about 12.”
“[My] estimates do not include any speculation about the iSlate,” Sidahmed writes. “Adding an iSlate, increasing iPhone sales and the shift away from subscription accounting, I expect 2011 EPS to approach $20. Any way you value it, Apple is looking good.”
Full article, with charts of all the details, here.