Dvorak predicts Apple among 2010’s ‘winners’ and Microsoft, Dell among ‘losers’

“The biggest hint of things to come in 2010 and beyond are tied up with three specific pieces of information that appeared near the end of 2009,” John C. Dvorak writes for MarketWatch. “The first two were the iPhone sales figures and the iPhone Internet usage rate. The third was the fact that Amazon.com Inc.’s Kindle was the No. 1 high-tech Christmas gift.”

MacDailyNews Take: Amazon’s charade, er… Kindle was Amazon’s “bestseller based on units ordered from November 15 through December 19” in their electronics category, followed by Apple’s iPod touch 8 GB, with the Garmin nuvi 260W 4.3-inch GPS in third place. As always, no specific sale figures were provided by Amazon, so we have no idea if Kindle, which available only via Amazon, outsold the specific 8GB iPod touch model on Amazon.com by 1 unit or 10 million during the Nov. 15 – Dec. 19 period. Perhaps tellingly, Amazon has never given any meaningful hard numbers regarding Kindle sales. Anyone who swallows Amazon’s Kindle PR is a rube.

Dvorak continues, “2010 will probably be a moribund year for the likes of Dell Inc. and Hewlett-Packard Co. insofar as PC sales are concerned. And I suspect continued success for Apple Inc. if and when it rolls out a tablet computer which seems to be a giant iPhone of some sort.”

Here are my predicted winners and loser [sic] for the upcoming year:

Winners
• Intel Corp.
• Apple Corp. [sic] “The company is on fire and will continue its hitting streak if the Apple pad computer has the same impact as the iPhone. This winning streak should take the stock close to $300 if not higher.”
• Nintendo Ltd.
• Google Inc.
• ValueClick Inc.

Losers:
• Dell Inc.: “Dell cannot get a break and I cannot see the company righting the ship next year. Its entry into the phone business won’t help since the company has no core competency in this area. It has tried to follow Apple’s lead before with a music player and got nowhere. The company tried to spice up its image buy buying Alienware and could not manage to integrate the operation and let it languish. Its ultra-thin notebook looks great when closed but ridiculous when opened. More recently the acquisition of Perot will tax the management to an extreme as most weird mergers do.”
• Oracle Corp.
• Microsoft Corp.: “Once the bloom is off Windows 7 and the stock tails off I cannot see the company doing much more than squandering its cash reserve while continuing to milk the cash cow. The executive judgment at the top that would have paid Yahoo Inc. $35 or so a share is unsettling. That deal could have broke [sic] the company for good. Other dumb deals lurk to entrap this company.”
• Yahoo

Full article here.

MacDailyNews Take: “Microsoft executive judgment” is an oxymoron approaching the level of “Microsoft Works.”

46 Comments

  1. Amazon says Kindle e-books outsold paper books this Christmas, implying that all Kindle e-books were sold to Kindle users when the vast majority were sold to iPod touch/iPhone users.

    Every trick in the book to make Kindle sales look much better than they are in reality.

  2. I think, Amazon is faking the Kindle sales ranking. By making their product the top seller it gets them press and free publicity. If I were in charge of Sony with a competing e-book reader I’d be screaming fraud and unfair competition until Amazon was forced to become transparent on the real Kindle sales numbers. By Amazon claiming the Kindle was the #1 selling electronic device on Amazon and then not providing transparent data to backup it’s claim, Amazon is basically doing the same thing cereal makers do when they claim that a cereal is heart health because it’s made of whole grain and then forget about the fact the cereal contains 5 times the recommended sugars, 9 times the recommended salt and 24 times the recommended fats for a breakfast cereal. Tastes good, but is not really heart healthy or a dietary winner either. Lier, lier pants on fire!! Jeff.

  3. i’ve been surprised by the number of Kindles i’ve seen—it’s averaging about 2 a month. i’m on the east coast and take the bus and subway to and from work, so that’s a pretty wide pool to sample from.

    at any rate, i’d welcome to ability to read a text book and use a workbook. i do so now with my phone and the kindle app, but it’s definitely less than ideal. at least while i’m back in school i’d want an Apple tablet, and can see why others may want a Kindle.

  4. The problem with Amazon’s sales ranking is two-fold:

    1) The Kindle can *only* be bought on Amazon and nowhere else in the world. All the other electronics (including iPods) are so at tens of thousands of retail outlets and hundreds of other web stores, so sales are split between many vendors. That makes it seem as though the Kindle was hot stuff, but compared to just about anything else, it is would be selling in handful amounts of spread among a much of vendors.

    2) Things like iPods are given different product numbers for every model, even color differences. Thus it’s less likely a single model will outsell Kindles, though if you gathered all the iPods together Apple’s selling far more than the Kindle.

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