Analyst: 25% chance Apple shares will hit $325 or more within the next 12 months

Apple Online Store“Katy Huberty’s three scenarios for Apple (AAPL) — bear, base and bull — is the lead item in Morgan Stanley’s’Key Surprises for 2010,’ a 15-company forecast issued to clients Wednesday,” Phillip Elmer-Dewitt reports for Fortune.

“Huberty is leaning heavily toward the bull, offering three paths by which Apple hits $325 per share or more within the next 12 months,” Elmer-Dewitt reports.

“The Street, she believes, is only giving Apple a 5% chance of surpassing that $325 target,” Elmer-Dewitt reports. “She puts the odds at one in four.”

Full article here.


  1. That’s based upon AAPL numbers, not real world market scenario numbers. Hedge funds use their top stock to sell to level out thelower pittance stocks in their clients portfolios in order to make them look better. AAPL is near the top of every list, so it doesn’t have a chance…it’s not AAPL’s fault.

  2. If we ignore for the moment that this is the notorious Kathy Huberty (a person with a very questionable credibility), AAPL at above $300 per share means market cap greater than Microsoft. That alone should make it a difficult proposition, since Wall Street does not think rationally; they look at perceived strengths, and monopoly provides a powerful perception…

  3. Considering Apple is not just one variety of apple, software, operating system, hardware, mobile phone, mobile Internet, mobile software supplier, soon to be advertiser…why can’t the market cap exceed those of it’s individual competitors. Since apple’s growth is high (~25%) a PE of 2xgrowth is not unreasonable. Turns out to be $325.

  4. I do not know about all of the stock speculation hype with Apple of late.
    Analyst were predicting $250-$275/share, now speculation about
    $300+/share. Apple stock is having trouble just staying around the $200 mark. It has not gone past its latest high of $205/share and it’s been hanging pretty steadily around the $196/share for awhile.
    I bought stock when Apple was in the low $100/share.
    Sounds to me like the hedge fund people are trying to artificially inflate Apple’s price so they end up being the big winners instead of its dedicated, long-term stock holders. Selling Apple on the short-term hurts its chances for long-term stock growth.
    Not Apple’s fault, but come on. Sure, I,definitely, wouldn’t mind seeing Apple trend toward this direction, but I think it’s a little early to be forecasting this type of growth for Apple.
    If I see Apple in the next year trending toward the $250-275 mark as some analysts said it would, then I’ll retract my previous statements.

  5. @ HMCIV

    Was reading an interview with Al Roker in TIME the other day. He defended meteorologists as being more accurate than economists. And as he said, it doesn’t affect your retirement account.

    In the short term (up to 3 days), meteorologists are like 90% accurate. % days, 75%. Not so good you say? If you consider all the variables they have to consider, that’s damn good. Nature makes Wall St. look simple.

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