Cody Willard blogs for Marketwatch, “For years I liked RIMM and I traded it, usually to the long side, when I was running money a few years ago. But I’m not sure I’d ever get long RIMM again, and I’ll give you three quick reasons why:”
1. The apps. It’s not about the number of apps. It’s about how easy it is to use the apps and how many apps actually bring value.
2. The enterprise. That’s really where Blackberry built its dominance — by taking over corporate mobile email. And they owned it with 90% marketshare initially. But all that marketshare that Blackberry was had is eroding and the rest is there for the taking. I’m seeing an increasing number of executives bring out their iPhones during meetings and to tap out emails. When the execs get their tech guys who are still running on the “you can’t get fired for using Blackberry” mentality to finally commit to letting the company employees choose between the iPhone and Blackberry, it’s gonna be a long down hill for Blackberry’s hold on the enterprise.
3. What’s Blackberry’s future market? If they can’t compete with the best consumer phones when it comes to playability, form factor, and general app usefulness, and if they can’t maintain their outsized marketshare at the enterprise, Blackberry’s suddenly got an identity crisis on its hands.
Willard blogs, “I think RIMM eventually gets bought out by somebody like Microsoft or even Google someday, but that day is several years off and I think there’s little potential upside and lots of potential downside because of these apps/marketshare/enterprise concerns.”
Full article here.