“in the future, Apple will excel as they build innovative products to take advantage of mobile apps. Because of the closed software/hardware Apple ecosystem, this company is better positioned for growth than any company in the history of technology. 100,000 apps available through the App Store makes it difficult for competitors to outdo the iPhone,” Schwarz writes. “Tech has become so complex that consumers now demand a user experience that is intuitively simple. Google’s Android will try to emulate the Microsoft ‘open’ success of the past but that clearly was a different era. We no longer tolerate the bugs that come from mixing software with multiple hardware manufacturers. The mobile era is all about convenience and Apple delivers.”
Schwarz writes, “Apple sold 78% more iPhones in FY09 over FY08. iPhone units are tracking a similar path as the early years of the iPod. Could the iPhone one day grow to 70% of the smart phone market? If they did then we would need to raise our price target to $5000 instead of $500. The point is, there is much upside to the current 2.5% global market share [of all handsets; Apple grabbed 18% share of the worldwide smartphone market in Q309] and this will be a primary stock driver for the next two years. You might want to be in on this one. The Apple Revolution is coming.”
Full article, from someone who gets it, here.
[Thanks to MacDailyNews Reader “GetMeOnTop” for the heads up.]
The great thing about all of the iPhone runner up’s is that every time somebody writes about them – they also bring up the iPhone. Nonstop.
Here’s Google news – on the day Droid shipped. Mentions iPhone 10 times.
Article talking about Droid Tethering. Mentions iPhone 29 times.
Walt Mossberg reviewing Droid. Mentions iPhone 11 times.
Free pub.
Tipping point. .:.
“Just keep swimming, Just keep swimming, Just keep swimming…”
You got to be kidding me raising their price target for CRAPple to $5000 if they control 70% of the marketshare of smartphones. LOL…… Look it has been over 3 years now and how CRAPple’s little phone haven’t change since the first generation and how quickly I find their phone out of style same goes with all of their toys.
http://www.bing.com When it comes to decisions that matter, Bing & Decide
I want some of what that dude is smoking…
Just a reality check for the math-impaired:
At $500/share, Apple’s market cap would be $450 billion. At $5,000/share, they would be $4.5 trillion. I don’t think 70% of the smartphone market is worth $640 for every man, woman, and child on the planet.
In 2008, 139 million smartphones were sold (according to Gartners) and had increased 13.9% YOY. At $5,000/share, if Apple had sold to 100% of those users, the company would be valued at $32K per smartphone sold.
To be fair, maybe the author was employing hyperbole to make a point, but it’s still sloppy.
Apple has more buns in the oven than just the iPhone. Where they not building the largest data center out somewhere. What is all that about?
@I’m a PC
“…little phone haven’t change since the first generation and how quickly I find their phone out of style same goes with all of their toys.”
Then why is the Zune HD so much alike the unfashionable iPhone/iPod Touch? If you want to criticize Apple, at least come up with something with bit more substance. Your post is not even entertaining or inflammatory, so you missed your mark.
“Because of the closed software/hardware Apple ecosystem, this company is better positioned for growth than any company in the history of technology.”
Wonder if MDN iCaled of statements by Gates, Dell, Dvorak, or Enderle re Apple’s vertically integrated mistake. The stock line for decades was the advantage of windows+OEM.
The $5,000 price point was exactly that – to make a point – not a prediction.
Remember in a few years the “smartphone market” will be the entire mobile phone market.
A few years after that the so-called “smartphone” will be the PC of the developing world.
What’s 70% of 5 billion units worth? Add in 30% of App sales? Add in video & music downloads, print media subscriptions, etc?
It is not about the mobile web but the mobile Internet. It is about being a part of the cloud, wherever, whenever and however you want. The iPhone has 100,000 apps that show how a mobile Internet brings new meaning to a smartphone. Safari and web browsing are a small fraction of the revolution the iPhone has wrought…
disposableidentity thinks the definition of “smartphone” will remain static as the market shifts under it. I don’t agree. I believe the definition will shift upwards as the various phones within it boost their capabilities. There will always be a market for a low-end model as well as a top-end model, and the feature set will vary according to the price. Of course, the “basic features” offered in each will vary. That’s what you are paying extra for! How soon will Apple introduce “miniLife” and “miniWork” to their iPhones? Maybe “Cloud” apps, maybe local. Upping the definition of “smart”!
@ Im a PC = Zunetang lite. We’re on to you buddy, and thanks for the entertainment.
Okay, let me just say it out loud.
FOR YEARS WE’VE BEEN HEARING THAT APPLE’S STOCK WILL GO PAST 200, 300, AND NOW 500.
Yet it’s perpetually lower than 200.
@HuskerMac
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I’m a PC might be mildly entertaining if he/she wouldn’t butcher the English language so much.
Don’t put words in my mouth. I’m saying some form of OSX will power a wide variety of computers (some pocketable, some will replace books, some will power televisions, and some will take on forms we’ve never dreamed of). The point is this future belongs to Apple, because they blazed that trail with a smartphone called the iPhone.
What happens when Steve leaves/dies? The last little time off doesn’t count b/c everyone knew he was coming back and watched what they did. When he’s gone for good and those in charge can do whatever they want, what then?
The question is, how much of these potential future gains are already factored in to the share price?
Just looked at the current Amazon.com software bestsellers list: numbers 1 and 2 are XP/Vista (not 7) versions of Office Student (nr 1) and Norton AV (well, you kinda need that…);
Nr 3 is Sista (thanks for the suggestion @Black Omega read in another thread…) Home whatever upgrade, 4 is Snow Leopard;
Then follow a bunch of other things (including some more Sista upgrades at ridiculous prices), 9 even being Office for Mac…
Kinda funny to see that the alleged king of marketshare apparently barely outsells the rounding error of OS’es…
Also kinda eye-opening to see the Sista whatever upgrades starting from $ 100 upwards, with the $ 25 Snow Leopard making quite a statement there…
Switching to the Laptops sections: nr 4 and 5: MBP and the plastic MacBook…
And best of all: in the desktop section only numbers 3, 4, 9, and 10 are non-Apple (1 and 2 are minis, 5-8 iMacs…)…
Wow, just wow…
My wife’s been telling me I should sell our shares (not that I have many, bought some at 60, been hitting my head hard for not buying more), but I guess I’ll hold on to them for some while. $ 500 looks attractive, and (reading the above) very feasible.
Tipping point, tipping point…
(my brother, longtime anti-Apple called last week: hey, I want to buy me an iMac, which one should I take…)
Apple has a PE of ~31 which is on the high side. A non-GAAP PE would probably be around 20-25 which is a bit better.
My point is that Apple will need to grow revenue and profit to sustain a reasonable PE to allow the stock price to rise. We are all assuming that iPhone and Mac sales will continue to rise which is fair. However I don’t know what the margin will be especially if Apple drop prices (Macs in particular) to stimulate market share growth.
Don’t get me wrong in thinking that I am suggesting Apple sell Macs at basement prices. However it is likely that Apple will let pricing drift down to start attacking the low end market. This will occur as a combination of better costs of goods pricing and trimming the profit margin a little. They did this with the iPod and will probably do the same with the Mac. It is a good ploy because over time Apple can marginalize their competitors to the bottom of the market.
I would love appl to go to 500 but it can only do so if they continue to make strides with market share.
As an aside, the article has some poor grammar. “In its infancy” obviously refers to the 3G wireless spectrum, not Apple as the sentence is structured.
All these predictions from the same bunch of analytical idiots that couldn’t see the World’s largest financial meltdown coming. Their predictions mean nothing. I wish it were true as a stock holder,… but I won’t rely on that to fund my retirement.
Market’s headed down, folx. No $500 for Apple, not now.
Just to clarify. I think the vast majority of the world’s population will never need or even want a “personal computer”. They will all, however, eventually own some descendant of the smartphone.
Apple has a very good shot at owning a dominant share of this huge future market.