CNBC’s Goldman on Apple iPhone analysts: Everybody really knows the game is over and who won

Apple Online Store RBC’s wireless analyst this morning Mike Abramsky and team “met with top execs at Apple and came away smitten,” Jim Goldman reports for CNBC. “And for good reason: it seems Wall Street is coming around to the fundamentals that many of us have been preaching.”

Following the meeting, Abramsky wrote in a note to clients, “‘The discussions reaffirmed our Outperform thesis:‬ iPhone Channel Leverage Remains High. Despite intensifying competition (Android, RIM, etc.) Apple continues to enjoy strong global carrier interest in iPhone…’ He adds that iPhone’s secret weapons include: ‘Vertical integration (hardware/software) and iTunes ecosystem remain a significant competitive advantage over contenders, with evolving innovations pending, applications leadership and content ecosystem,'” Goldman reports.

As for Android, ‘”‘Multiple configurations’ is viewed as a disadvantage to application developers, vs. Apple’s single-platform model,’ he writes. Apple’s App Store continues to be the key differentiator with 90,000 titles versus the Android’s 12,000… [plus] Apple has something none of the other smart phone makers do, namely everything else: Macs, iPods, an OS for computers and phones, a robust retailing strategy, iTunes, the App Store, the intangible of market mojo, and the executive talent to pull it off,” Goldman reports.

Goldman reports, “On the operating system side, Abramsky says, ‘Windows 7? Bring It.’ The upgrade cycle is another opportunity to get consumers and enterprise customers in a shopping mode again, and if they’re gonna crack open the checkbook, why not spend the cash on a Mac?”

Much more in the full article, in which Goldman explains that “watching Apple [iPhone] at this stage is like watching ‘Sunday Night Football.’ It’s a total blow-out late in the fourth quarter and yet the commentators try to come up with scoring possibilities and formulas to make the game a little more interesting, to hold the viewer, even though everybody really knows the game is over and who won,” here.

MacDailyNews Note: In a nutshell: Bloodbath.

32 Comments

  1. From the article, “Trouble for Palm is that it’s still largely a one-trick pony, though Pixi might have some potential.”

    Um, no. No man is ever going to buy a phone called a “Pixi”. With that stupid, effeminate tinkerbell name, they’ve eleminited 50% of the phone’s potential market right out of the gate.

    Who is in charge of Palm’s branding/marketing strategy? Their awful feminine hygiene-style commercials and now pinning their hopes on a phone called the Pixi makes me think Palm really has no fucking clue who buys gadgets and what gadget buyers want.

  2. Eveybody that rhinks physical media for video will be gone in a few years is sadly mistaken. Digital downloads will not take over until decent broadband is available EVERYWHERE, not just urban areas. That’s gonna be a while. Physical media still has a good long life ahead of it yet.

  3. Eh, I don’t think this has anything to do with market share or sales. It has more to do with efficiency and being able to maximize resources. Knowing your core competencies and building products and services around them, creating entirely new platforms and markets.

    Right now Apple has three great strengths, design (hardware and interface), content distribution (iTunes), and an extremely versatile operating system.

    On top of that, with their retail stores and ad campaigns, Apple has a marketing machine that no one else can come close to matching.

  4. Oh boy, Abramsky tooting iPhone’s horn… can’t be good for Apple. Remember, he’s the dweeb that issued a “buy” recommendation on Palm and a “sell” on Apple based on what I think he called valuation. He works for RBC… RBC owns a chunk of RIM.

  5. I’ve bought two Palm gadgets over the years. The first, a Palm III, wasn’t bad. The second, I don’t remember the model, I bought to eliminate the cradle to USB kludge. Neither turned out to be extremely useful and I never thought I got value for the money. I’ll never be tempted by another Palm product.

    Apple is a different story. I’ve owned and used Apple products since 1979. The only Apple item I regret is that I didn’t buy any stock back in the day. Hindsight is so 20-20.

  6. I don’t know how many times in my lifetime I’ve read that “the game is over.” In 2002, the Democratic Party was dead. In 2008, the Republican Party was dead. In 2004, the the series is over, the Red Sox are dead.

    The game isn’t won. The iPhone does not have 100% market share. Finally, you just can’t love an analyst when he says the Apple rocks and hate the next one because he says Apple sucks. Most analysts are quite smart, but tend to hyperbole because their job isn’t to really analyze a stock but to make money for the brokerage. They aren’t whores, more like concubines.

    The game isn’t ever going to be over. Someone will come out with a better phone someday. And it might outsell the iPhone, if Apple reads this press. I hope they think what I think of it.

  7. If you must use American Football as an analogy, Apple has a good lead. It doesn’t matter what quarter it is. Apple keeps moving the goal posts while making the field longer. Apple keeps changing the rules.

    There are other teams in the game but they are all prepared to play last year’s or the year before’s game on last year’s or the year before’s field.

    Apple controls the whole iPhone ecosystem. Google controls only a very small part of the Google smart phone ecosystem. Same with Microsoft and their WinMobile phones. RIM controls a lot of it’s Blackberry ecosystem but it is still missing several parts. Nokia is starting over from scratch, rewriting their phone OS fairly late in the game. Palm is on life support.

    What all iPhone competitors haven’t learned to do yet is build a intuitive human interface. The iPhone, in all it’s facets, is a hell of a lot easier to use than any other smart phone. Just look at the customer satisfaction stats.

    It’s all about the software, stupid.

  8. NewtonsApple wrote:
    “Eveybody that rhinks physical media for video will be gone in a few years is sadly mistaken. Digital downloads will not take over until decent broadband is available EVERYWHERE”

    This is very true, but how many times do we as consumers need to be jerked around from one physical media format to another? I’m done with physical media. DVD/CD will be the last physical media I buy, ever.

    As far as broadband is concerned, in the USA at least I think it’s time to take control away from private companies and make it a public utility. Capitalism and free-markets were supposed to be good for competition, but all it has done here is stagnate the industry. The US sits at the bottom of the technology list, because greedy-ass corporations don’t want to spend the money on upgrading their systems. Phone, Cable, Wireless, etc… The quality is abysmal. Where’s the fiber we were promised more than a decade ago? Didn’t the government grant the communications corporations billions of dollars to upgrade their systems? Where’d that money go?

    There should be one public wired backbone and a public wireless system and as consumers we should be able to choose which provider we want for whatever service we want… Only then will there truly be an open and free market.

  9. And then there is PA Semi – we have heard nothing coming from that purchase as of yet. That could be the real maximizer in all of this. Ah yes, it is about to get exciting!

  10. I agree with Michael. We wouldn’t have had electricity in rural areas if it had been left up to private companies. We have a number of piss poor systems instead of one good one. I have to carry a Verizon phone and an iPhone to get the coverage and functionality that I want. 3G? Hell, I’d be happy with decent cell coverage of any kind where I live (NW Ohio).

  11. > As for Android, ‘”‘Multiple configurations’ is viewed as a disadvantage to application developers, vs. Apple’s single-platform model,’ he writes.

    Nailed it. What Google (and Microsoft) always tout as an advantage for Android (and WinMo) is actually a huge disadvantage. Imagine a small developer trying to create and test apps for Android, and having to consider devices with keyboards and some without, some with touch screens and some without, some with this processor and some with that processor, some with a smaller screen and some with a larger screen, etc… It will be a nightmare, and many will consider it not worth the effort.

  12. Michael,

    The Telecommunications Act of 1996 is the greatest scam in American history by corporations. They stole billions from taxpayers and we got nothing in return.

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