“While the Google-backed Android mobile operating system currently runs on less than 2% of all smartphones, Gartner Inc. predicts it will surge to 14% of the global smartphone market in 2012 — ahead of the iPhone, as well as Windows Mobile and BlackBerry smartphones,” Matt Hamblen reports for Computerworld.
“The complete Gartner forecast for smartphone OSes by the end of 2012 puts Symbian on top with 203 million devices sold, and 39% of the market. Android will be second with nearly 76 million units sold, and 14.5% of the market,” Hamblen reports. “Coming in a close third, the iPhone will ship on 71.5 million devices in 2012, giving a 13.7% market share. Windows Mobile will finish fourth, with 66.8 million units sold, or 12.8% of the market.”
“Very close behind Windows Mobile, the BlackBerry OS will sell on 65.25 million devices in 2012, Gartner forecasts, making it fifth with 12.5% market share,” Hamblen reports. “Various Linux devices will sell 28 million units, at 5.4% market share, in sixth place. Palm Inc.’s webOS will sell on 11 million units in 2012, about 2.1% of the market, in seventh place, Gartner says.”
Full article here.
MacDailyNews Take: If Kenny thinks Palm Inc. will still exist in 2012, he’s obviously started his weekend very early. Maybe he thinks some company will be selling devices with the WebOS? That might be more realistic. Either way, Hamblem’s forecast has been iCal’ed for future use as soon as we have the actual 2012 full year numbers.
I plan on buying the special Mayan Apocalypse Edition iPhone in 2012.
Sounds like a rounding error to me…
Say what you want about Gartner but, as a company, they aren’t stupid at all and are usually right on the money. But, nevertheless, I don’t have any respect at all for Ken Dulaney who has panned the iPhone ever since it was released. I can only assume that he is biased again Apple because I can’t think of any other possible reason for his overly negative opinions about the iPhone. Regardless of how it may appear, though, none of the Gartner analysts just pull numbers out of the air. And I know.
The pinpoint nature of the predictions is absurd. Two years away, a margain of error is mandatory for any professional quality work. For shame. At least + or – 5%. Which would put all platforms except palm is a tie for second behind Nokia. And palm could be zero (not unlikely). The only thing probably wrong with that properly qualified prediction is win mobile, which is clearly in deine now, falling behind the pack. Win mobile 7 could halt the decline but by then it will be too late. It will be down to single digit %.
How Gartner Inc. stays in business is beyond me…they Never get anything right. Their track record in predicting IT trends etc..is Zero point Zero.
While I think that his numbers are out to lunch, I think that there is some decent reasoning as to why he is putting Android ahead of the iPhone — because Android will be available on multiple phones in different configurations, while whatever iPhones there are will only be made by Apple. Thus even if the iPhone is the most popular smartphone by far, its operating system will be behind an OS that is more widely available. This is the same pattern that we now see in computers — the fact that you cn only get OSX on Apple computers means that it will never acheive market domination even though it is manifestly superior in every way. And Apple wants it that way. They may feel the same about the iPhone and would be happy making the #1 smartphone as opposed to the #1 smartphone OS.