Apple to sell more than 50 million iPhones a year by 2011?

Apple Online Store “Apple is on track to sell more than 50 million iPhones a year by the September 2011 fiscal year, Bernstein Research analyst Toni Sacconaghi asserted in a research note this morning, up from an estimated 20 million in fiscal 2009,” Eric Savitz blogs for Barron’s.

MacDailyNews Take: Sounds like Toni found his missing iPhones. (smirk)

Savitz continues, “He contends the company can reach that level simply by holding its current share of the smart phone market and aggressively broadening distribution to additional carriers.”

Here’s now he sees Apple getting there:
• Smart phone market growth
• Add more carriers in existing countries
• Offer the phone in China

“Sacconaghi thinks the company could put up even bigger numbers, if it addresses two market it doesn’t currently address: pre-paid phones and non-data phones,” Savitz reports.

MacDailyNews Take: Is Apple really interested in “non-data phones?”

Savitz continues, “Sacconaghi repeats his Overweight rating and $185 price target on Apple shares.”

More details in the full article here.

MacDailyNews Take: Sacconaghi has proven to be pretty much an idiot when it comes to Apple “analysis” (see related articles below), so do with his numbers what you will. One thing’s for sure: Toni is catnip for Eric; he just can’t bring himself to ignore Toni’s twaddle du jour.

14 Comments

  1. By Dec 2011, Apple will blow the doors off what anyone ‘expects’ they will sell…

    Note to S. Balm-oil, Olli-Pekker Kallasvuo, & E. Colligan wannabes: you’re toast.

    You don’t want to admit it yet, but your ‘smart phone’ segment (i.e.: high-end / high profitablity) is gone… consider yourselves relegated to the lower and lower-mid section of the phone market in the same way Dell has been relegated to the ‘budget bin’ of consumer computers…

    Enjoy it while you’re still in business. Who’s ‘beleaguered’ now, b!tches?

  2. Sacconaghi is certainly setting an extremely high bar for FY10 iPhone sales – possibly he is looking to profit from an AAPL dip in the aftermath of great results not meeting phenomenal expectations?

    If Apple sells 30M more iPhones in 2010 than in 2009 (50M versus 20M per Sacconaghi’s estimates), then Apple’s non-GAAP revenue would increase by around $10B or so and non-GAAP profit by several billion (for example, $100 per iPhone would yield $3B). Even amortized over 24 months that is a lot of additional revenue and profit above the terrific results experienced to date. Even if Mac and iPod sales are flat, you discount the effect of Snow Leopard, and Apple does not release any new product in the interim, the impact of that level of iPhone sales would be significant to AAPL.

    So, if Sacconaghi is anywhere close to accurate with his 50M iPhone estimate, I would expect a jump in AAPL far beyond $185. In fact, I believe that AAPL will get to $185 just from an overall stock market rise associated with economic recovery, well before any 150% increase in iPhone sales in FY10. As a result, his sales estimates and stock price target seem inconsistent to me. I’ll make my own AAPL predictions, thank you very much, and leave the analysts to fleece their unfortunate clients.

  3. They’d sell a lot more than that if they could keep their cellular partners stocked. I still can’t get a 3GS at any Rogers in British Columbia. They’ve been sold out since day one.

  4. Nicely put fandango

    Steve Jobs never forgot the muthers who
    talked down to him and Apple and now he’s
    Taking names – numbers & kicking arse.
    I see the new tablet as a nuclear product with features
    we have never thought of.
    This race horse of a company will lap the competitors.

  5. If Apple made a device that looked like an iPod Nano, but a bit longer, that does everything the current nano does, with a basic still camera, and a voice-only phone that could be used with an inexpensive monthly or pre-paid service, I’d go for that. It could even use that “rotary” click wheel number selection method, from the recently published patent. Most of the phone numbers I call are in my address book (synced to device), so using the click wheel to enter the occasionally new phone number would not be so tedious. It would be marketed as an iPod that happens to have a basic phone feature.

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