Enderle: Apple’s Mac could be poised for its biggest market share gain in history

“Windows 7 is the most finished new OS [Microsoft] have likely ever brought to market. This creates a problem for Apple who is enjoying growth, but still needs people to swap off Windows if they want to continue to see it,” Rob Enderle writes for TG Daily.

Apple knows “that it is the Windows XP user that is most exposed and they know that the upgrade from Windows XP will not only be painful. It will be expensive. They also know that Windows 7 slipped late into the cycle and, with an October 22nd launch, it will miss the critical back to school ramp. Unfortunately for Apple, Snow Leopard also slipped and they will miss the ideal end of August window, but not by much, and they can mitigate this scenario a bit by gaming the system,” Enderle writes.

“What I mean by that is they know that market momentum is generally measured by shipments, not sales, and that a September launch means they can load the channel with shipments in the third quarter, while an October launch means Microsoft and its vendors will be bleeding down inventory for the October launch during the same time frame. When numbers are reported, the combination should show Apple with a massive, if overstated, market share gain creating the impression of a rush to the platform right before the critical fourth quarter. This kind of thing can result in the technology equivalent of a feeding frenzy and the result could be the biggest market share gain in their history,” Enderle writes.

“This isn’t even considering the strong synergy that is being created between their PC, iPhone, and iPod (Touch) offerings, which will positively impact their momentum during that period. Even though Microsoft is marketing sharply to counter this Back to School ramp, Microsoft would have to completely stall the market in September, doing even more damage to their own and PC OEMs revenue streams, which effectively takes this off the table for them. At the same time, the under $30 upgrade price that Apple is putting out there for Leopard users not only makes the MacOS appear to be better long term to XP users facing a substantially bigger cost of upgrade, but it protects Apple’s base (most will likely take the upgrade) from an likely Microsoft response,” Enderle writes.

MacDailyNews Take: There is no need to “protect Apple’s base” from Microsoft. Many of us are 100% Microsoft free, or are working towards that goal, and would rather coat ourselves in honey and play catch with killer bees’ nests than use Windows.

Enderle continues, “This appears to be incredibly well thought out and, barring a problem, could pay off very well for the company.”

Full article here.Full article here.

MacDailyNews Take: As usual, there’s some total baloney in Endelre’s piece, but the excerpts above are amazing enough — that he actually somewhat gets it and is relatively coherent while explaining it — to trump his usual bad punditry and fearful sniping this time.

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