Citi analyst cuts earnings estimates on Apple to reflect softer consumer spending

Citi analyst Richard Gardner today lowered his share price target and earnings estimates on Mac-, iPhone-, and iPod-maker Apple Inc. (AAPL) to “reflect a more conservative view of consumer spending” in a note to clients.

Apple Online StoreGardner lowered his share price target to $132 from $153. He still expects the Cupertino, Calif.-based company to report a profit of $1.42 per share for the fourth quarter of 2008 despite a likely shortfall in sales The analyst also reduced his earnings estimates for fiscal 2009, 2010 and 2011, but reiterated a “Buy” rating on the company’s shares.

Gardner said his checks show shipments of Apple’s revolutionary iPhone may come in below 4 million units for the fourth quarter of 2008.

Furthermore, Gardner wrote that if Apple’s stock dropped $7-$8 by the company’s earnings release scheduled after market close on Jan. 21, “We would be aggressive buyers.”

[Thanks to MacDailyNews Reader “Judge Bork” for the heads up.]


  1. I wish the SEC would make it a crime for analysts to make predictions, make recommendations, set Stock Target Prices or make any other type of wild ass claim Publicly or privately. Information without hard facts from the Company is just a wild guess.

  2. please mdn ical these “checks” from gardner and his prediction of under 4 million and send him a nice message when it turns out that apple sold 5 million or more and that his “checks” where nothing but guess-work, like all the times before.

  3. @MDN:

    I’m with ralph from berlin on this one. Citi is shorting Apple’s stock. This analyst just does not get it. Apple has blown every quarter as far as I can remember. Yet, this is the best they can come up with? WTF.

  4. Gardner talks about his ‘checks’ showing the iPhone may come in below 4 million units.
    Here’s another check:-
    Sources at Orange in France said that Christmas sales were 210 thousand.

    Population of France:- ca. 61 million.
    Population of Europe:- ca. 731 million.

    That would make about 2.5 million iPhones sold in Europe, if, of course, as many iPhones were sold per head of population in Europe as in France.

    If we take the worse-case scenario and presume less were sold, then we’re talking about a number between perhaps 1.5 and 2 million.

    But that is just Christmas in Europe, not the whole quarter!
    The whole quarter in Europe must be well over 2 , likely over 3 million.

    And then there’s the rest of the world to add to that!

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