The markets and Apple breaking down; AAPL headed for new lows?

“Back on December 12, I declared that the Bear Rally was over. Although it may have seemed somewhat premature, especially after the auto-bailout injected at least some temporary life back into the market, it turns out the call was spot on. At the time my analysis was based on the Bulls inability to hold the 20 day moving averages, and advance through the 50 day moving averages,” Zach Bass writes for Apple Investor in the WIlderness.

“At the time of that rally ending call, Apple was at the peak of it’s rally, having gained nearly 24% off its November lows, at least intraday, by hitting 103.60 on December 11th. It was soundly rejected by strong resistance provided by it’s 50 day exponential moving average. The next day the stock and the indexes took a pretty good hit. That was my first clue, that if leaders like Apple couldn’t break through such levels with all that momentum, and if the indexes couldn’t hold their 20s, then this rally was a bust,” Bass writes.

“Should the market move down with any level of force today, I would expect AAPL to lose the 85 level, which will then become resistance,” Bass writes. “Once below that level, AAPL investors will find it very difficult to retake. So, my prediction is that if there’s no Christmas miracle, the S&P will play out the bearish pattern its in, and AAPL will be heading for new lows.”

Full article here.

32 Comments

  1. The 85 support has held this morning on news of strong iPod Touch sales. We will see how the day plays out. I feel that the 85 support is pretty strong (remember, $25 dollars of that price is cash).

  2. Doesn’t this dude know that the AAPL stock is basically a roller coaster? As is almost all stocks but someone mentions the steve sneezing more than once and its a health issue and stocks plummet. Or some lame analyst will drop their price target to something super low with no backup as to why and they will plummet. Not many other companies if any work like this. And it is no shock to see AAPL go up $6 or $7 in a day to only drop that same amount the next day.

  3. One must remember, half of all retail sales occur during the holidays and sales are down substancially from last year.

    So it’s reasonable to expect 2009 to be a extremely slow year for Apple as people are spending money on their inflated mortgages and worry about their employment status during the reccession.

    Unfortunatly, no country has ever spent it’s way out of a recession. Too bad we all have to learn that painful lesson again over the next four years.

    Now there is a chance to replace the Congress in two years with people who know how to run a business, instead of wanting socialism.

  4. As far as I can tell, aapl aapl will go down until it stops, then it will go up until it stops, then it will go down again. Fundamentals, technicals, curves, macro or micro indicators all mean nothing. AAPL kept rising when it was announced that Jobs had cancer, but now, based only on rumor and innuendo, aapl tanks. Maybe he should sell his stake in Disney (I understand he is the largest individual shareholder) and get out of the slum, then things may improve for aapl.

  5. So many people have lost money in recent months they are desperate to to realise a profit or a return of capital invested that can be stashed somewhere less volatile and safer.

    Its going to be a long time before large gains materialise. As soon as stock moves up a few points sellers will raise their heads above the parapet.

  6. WHY–OH WHY–should we listen to this man’s opinions when he can’t make the simplest–THE VERY SIMPLEST–of verbal discriminations?

    Look at his article above: He can’t tell the difference (and use it correctly) between “it’s” and “its”!

    “”At the time of that rally ending call, Apple was at the peak of it’s rally . . . .” He MEANT “its”!

    “So, my prediction is that if there’s no Christmas miracle, the S&P;will play out the bearish pattern its in . . . .” He MEANT “it’s”!

    THIS IS NOT ROCKET SCIENCE!

    This is not mere nitpicking, folks, for if this so-called analyst can’t tell the difference between these two simple, second-grade constructs, how do we know he can tell the difference between a market upswing and a market downturn?

    Ignorance, thy name is Bass.

  7. Damn! You beat me to the punch! Thank you, Randian, for nailing that frigtard. The improper use of a possessive pronoun drives me insane, not to mention that this twit believes in technical analysis. I’m nailing him with a five minute major penalty for that one, and I’m considering banishing him to the lost city of Kandor.

    Some guys just pickle my beets…

  8. @MacFinch

    So Apple is not a good company to hold because it goes up and down? Welcome to the stock market! Those who convinced themselves stocks only go up are the ones driving the price down now, selling low and losing money.

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