“Back on December 12, I declared that the Bear Rally was over. Although it may have seemed somewhat premature, especially after the auto-bailout injected at least some temporary life back into the market, it turns out the call was spot on. At the time my analysis was based on the Bulls inability to hold the 20 day moving averages, and advance through the 50 day moving averages,” Zach Bass writes for Apple Investor in the WIlderness.
“At the time of that rally ending call, Apple was at the peak of it’s rally, having gained nearly 24% off its November lows, at least intraday, by hitting 103.60 on December 11th. It was soundly rejected by strong resistance provided by it’s 50 day exponential moving average. The next day the stock and the indexes took a pretty good hit. That was my first clue, that if leaders like Apple couldn’t break through such levels with all that momentum, and if the indexes couldn’t hold their 20s, then this rally was a bust,” Bass writes.
“Should the market move down with any level of force today, I would expect AAPL to lose the 85 level, which will then become resistance,” Bass writes. “Once below that level, AAPL investors will find it very difficult to retake. So, my prediction is that if there’s no Christmas miracle, the S&P will play out the bearish pattern its in, and AAPL will be heading for new lows.”
Full article here.
Merry Christmas 🙁
AAPL @ $25 if Steve Jobs gets the flu…
The 85 support has held this morning on news of strong iPod Touch sales. We will see how the day plays out. I feel that the 85 support is pretty strong (remember, $25 dollars of that price is cash).
Doesn’t this dude know that the AAPL stock is basically a roller coaster? As is almost all stocks but someone mentions the steve sneezing more than once and its a health issue and stocks plummet. Or some lame analyst will drop their price target to something super low with no backup as to why and they will plummet. Not many other companies if any work like this. And it is no shock to see AAPL go up $6 or $7 in a day to only drop that same amount the next day.
It’s unlikely that it will hit $0….so, somewhere in there is a buying opportunity.
@Gary
$25 if we are lucky.
One must remember, half of all retail sales occur during the holidays and sales are down substancially from last year.
So it’s reasonable to expect 2009 to be a extremely slow year for Apple as people are spending money on their inflated mortgages and worry about their employment status during the reccession.
Unfortunatly, no country has ever spent it’s way out of a recession. Too bad we all have to learn that painful lesson again over the next four years.
Now there is a chance to replace the Congress in two years with people who know how to run a business, instead of wanting socialism.
As far as I can tell, aapl aapl will go down until it stops, then it will go up until it stops, then it will go down again. Fundamentals, technicals, curves, macro or micro indicators all mean nothing. AAPL kept rising when it was announced that Jobs had cancer, but now, based only on rumor and innuendo, aapl tanks. Maybe he should sell his stake in Disney (I understand he is the largest individual shareholder) and get out of the slum, then things may improve for aapl.
So many people have lost money in recent months they are desperate to to realise a profit or a return of capital invested that can be stashed somewhere less volatile and safer.
Its going to be a long time before large gains materialise. As soon as stock moves up a few points sellers will raise their heads above the parapet.
Mumbo jumbo. Technical analysis is as accurate as tea leaves and bone reading. Buy and hold a good company.
Apple is not a good company to hold anymore.
It’s a channeling stock. It goes up and down.
Of course the suspension of MacWorld announcements will affect that a lot now.
Amen, brother! Technical analysis is total bollocks.
WHY–OH WHY–should we listen to this man’s opinions when he can’t make the simplest–THE VERY SIMPLEST–of verbal discriminations?
Look at his article above: He can’t tell the difference (and use it correctly) between “it’s” and “its”!
“”At the time of that rally ending call, Apple was at the peak of it’s rally . . . .” He MEANT “its”!
“So, my prediction is that if there’s no Christmas miracle, the S&P;will play out the bearish pattern its in . . . .” He MEANT “it’s”!
THIS IS NOT ROCKET SCIENCE!
This is not mere nitpicking, folks, for if this so-called analyst can’t tell the difference between these two simple, second-grade constructs, how do we know he can tell the difference between a market upswing and a market downturn?
Ignorance, thy name is Bass.
Damn! You beat me to the punch! Thank you, Randian, for nailing that frigtard. The improper use of a possessive pronoun drives me insane, not to mention that this twit believes in technical analysis. I’m nailing him with a five minute major penalty for that one, and I’m considering banishing him to the lost city of Kandor.
Some guys just pickle my beets…
@MacFinch
So Apple is not a good company to hold because it goes up and down? Welcome to the stock market! Those who convinced themselves stocks only go up are the ones driving the price down now, selling low and losing money.
Another negative headline to poop the economy.
When are people going to get smart to the negativity in the media?
Make your own decisions based upon your own research, not the media and the analysts and the hedge funds!!!
The media has decided our president, not the people, and now they are deciding our economy.
Reality is that we are media fed and as long as we see the headlines “meltdown”, “crash”, “recession”, and “tank”, we are NEVER going to see the economy improve. They claim reality, but everything starts with a positive attitude, and the media is NEGATIVE…it gets them concern ratings over popular TV shows…it makes them MONEY.
Get smart, people…protest media EXAGGERATION! They exaggerate first, then the negative halo they create makes it come true, and they say “told ya so”
Aboutface and protest the media headlines…their ratings are higher than ever.
@Mac Finch
What, you mean the business-minded people who got us here in the first place? The seeds for this dep-cession were planted during the years when Republicans ran the entire government. But the dems should be blamed because their house of cards has finally come trickling down?
I hate negativity.
I want to clarify that I would much rather be reporting a bullish analysis of Apple stock price movement. But like any analyst or reporter that is worth their salt, I do my level best to provide object and truthful reporting.
The unfortunate truth is that Apple and the markets have been bearish for quite some time now. Should I sugar coat my analysis so that it’s easier for the Apple faithful to swallow, or should I simply mislead investors with a bullish bias causing them to lose their hard earned money?
I will be glad when this Bear has left and Apple can rise to it’s rightful place and lead the tech sector to new heights. But until that time comes, I will face and report the reality of the situation.
It’ll never happen. People feed off the lying news media, as they have no lives and need something to talk/whine about. I threw away the newspapers, turned off the cable and local news outlets, threw away my credit cards, and now live a simple, recession-proof life.
While others watch their mortgages circle the drain, I drive my paid-off used car from my recession-proof job to my almost-paid-off house and laugh at the lemmings who bought things based on what people they don’t like think.
99% of the people in this country are stupid. Period.
Holy cow, when aapl goes low you know the rest of the market is in the crapper.
All that being said, not only am I buying more aapl, but I’m think that now or soon is/will be a great time to get into some goog shares.
“The markets and Apple breaking down; AAPL headed for new lows?”
Yes and no. Yes, Apple will dip below 80 for a (very) short period. Mid to high 70’s most likely. New lows for sure, and those (like Zach) who live and die by technical analysis will panic. (Indeed, they obviously already are doing so.)
But no, the dip won’t mean much because the stock will immediately spike to somewhere in the mid-100’s. After a few weeks of wild volatility, taking out all extant resistance levels, it’ll be off to the races from there, through about midyear.
TA just doesn’t mean Jack at a market bottom, and over-reliance on them is the mark of a callow investor. (Sorry, Zach, I’ve just seen this world whirl a few more times than you.) Market history and patterns are all that matters at such times. Now is one of those times, and you’re about to miss a big boom.
The market is now wildly divergent from – and under – long term moving averages. This is the biggest divergence from the mean in about 20 years. The correction upward will be swift and explosive, to a degree that will be frightening to many. Big cap companies with good stories (such as Apple) will be the big beneficiaries of the positive (for a welcome change) correction.
All the drama will begin in early January, so there’s not much longer to wait. The market now is dry kindling waiting for a spark. Remember who told you so.
Charting farting. MDN why did you give this guy the time of day?
I think it will go up.
OK, so I was wrong. Therefore I think it will go down.
This guy gets paid for his opinion???????
I hope Apple drops and by mid january. That is when I get a big fat bonus check which I plan to buy Appl no matter what the current price is…(please be low).
Long term people long term. Screw the anal-ysts.