Bernstein analyst Sacconaghi: Wal-Mart could sell between 800,000 and 1.3 million iPhones in 2009

“The Street continues to crunch the numbers on what a distribution deal with Wal-Mart might mean for Apple’s iPhone sales,” Eric Savitz blogs for Barron’s. “Earlier this week, I took note of Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster’s analysis, which concluded that Wal-Mart could sell as many iPhones next year as Apple’s own retail stores [Munster estimates 4.5 million units].”

“This morning, Bernstein Research analyst Toni Sacconaghi runs through the numbers, and comes up with slightly different conclusions,” Savitz reports.

“For starters, Sacconaghi says his checks with Wal-Mart stores show that in fact the reports of a Wal-Mart distribution deal appear to be true; although he is skeptical about rumors the retailer will sell a 4GB model for $99,” Savitz reports.

“The Bernstein analyst thinks Wal-Mart can sell between 800,000 and 1.3 million units in FY 2009, or 4%-6% of his projected total,” Savitz reports. “He also notes that the rumored start date for selling phones at Wal-Mart is December 28, one day after the end of the company’s fiscal first quarter on December 27. Finally, Sacconaghi concludes that the partnership with Wal-Mart suggests that Apple wants to drive mass-market adoption of the iPhone, as it has done with the iPod.”

Savitz reports, “Sacconaghi maintains an Outperform rating and $135 price target on the stock, asserting that the stock has been ‘overly discounted,’ that short-term financial will remain relatively healthy despite the economic weakness, and that ‘the company’s longer-term growth story remains intact.'”

More in the full article here.


  1. Only a moron would conclude that that “the partnership with Wal-Mart suggests that Apple wants to drive mass-market adoption of the iPhone, as it has done with the iPod” based on Sacconaghi’s estimate of sales of only 800,000 and 1.3 million iPhones at Wal-Mart in 2009.

    Now, this conclusion makes sense if you use Munster estimates of 4.5 million units

  2. I wouldn’t mind saving some money on toilet paper. My wife says it costs 3x what it did six months ago.

    Other than that, I wouldn’t write off Walmart customers so cavalierly. There are a lot of towns where Walmart is the only place to see and buy stuff like this. Apple Stores aren’t everywhere, and while there seems to be an ATT store in every other strip mall here in L.A., this is not the case is small towns across the country. The addition of Walmart as a distributor can only help iPhone sales.

  3. And Santa’s reindeer continue to crunch the numbers on how many cities they could actually hit in one night if Santa were real.. But he’s not, much like the rumored Apple/Wal-Mart deal. So what’s the point?

  4. I live in the midwest.

    No, it is not hell here.

    But AT&T;stores and Apple stores aren’t on every corner like they may be for you big city folk.

    Hold your nose, but Walmart will help iPhone sells because there are a lot of those stores. People will pass by the iPhone and be curious. They might wipe the pig crap off of their hands and pick one up and touch it.

    Someday I hope to go out west California way and see myself some big movie stars. Maybe I will get to see all of those fancy AT&T;stores all over the place. Maybe someday I will get to go to the Big Apple that never sleeps and have a fancy coffee with an intellectual.

    But for now, I live in the midwest where we have a lot of Walmarts.

  5. Yes, deepdish. Dare to dream. ” width=”19″ height=”19″ alt=”grin” style=”border:0;” /> How is the AT & T coverage out there in the midwest? Are people even going to get a signal, let alone WiFi? I hope so.

    Personally, I love the idea that iPhones (and how about Macs?) will start to be sold at WalMarts. I think that it’s a good idea. The fact that you might get an even better price is even a better idea. I always thought that the idea of only buying an iPhone at an Apple store or an AT & T store was ludicrous.

    Apple products should be sold all over the place.

  6. 800,000 to 1.3 M are way, way too low. Bet on 5 M through Wal-mart in 2009.

    Of course, Walmart shoppers might have to cut back on the 12 packs of Bud and 3 lb bags of potato chips to afford an iPhone.

  7. If that’s true, Apple should have never been in, and needs to get out of; the AT&T;agreement. Limiting to one carrier is a big big problem, particularly for enterprises.

    I just wish they’d buy their way out and get after the market already!!!

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