“Kaufman Bros. analyst Shaw Wu has been checking with his contacts in Apple’s supply and distribution channels,” Philip Elmer-DeWitt reports for Fortune. Wu is “anticipating sales of 6 million units for the December quarter (Apple’s fiscal 2009 Q1), down from 6.9 million in Q4 but in line with the Street’s expectations of between 5 and 7 million.”
“But that significantly understates actual demand for the iPhone, Wu says, because it doesn’t include the wild card in this holiday season’s iPhone sales: the iPhone gift card,” Elmer-DeWitt reports. “‘We think there is strong reception of AAPL’s new iPhone 3G Gift Card program,’ Wu wrote in a report to clients Wednesday, ‘where the process of giving the iPhone as a gift is greatly simplified without the need for activation and personal information. … We estimate several hundred thousand to one million units could be impacted.'”
Elmer-DeWitt reports, “The good news about these gift cards is that Apple gets to collect the revenue up front, which improves cash flow. The bad news for Apple’s Q1 earnings is that it can’t recognize the sale of an iPhone until the customer activates it.”
Full article here.
I bet that gift card is a wild card that Kathy Huberty didn’t allow for!
Gift cards?? For the iPhone?? Yeah, like that will really take off!! I think I’ll revise my estimate down to $75 and see if I can get the stock down to that before the markets close.
Every analyst seems to have a “contact” with Apple’s supply channels. Well, if every analsyt has one, wouldn’t you agree that their analysis would be very similar or exactly the same? But, it’s not. One would be in the left field and the other on the right field. Others would out of the ball park figures. WTF!
Don’t trust Wu’s calculator, and remember, he will about-face on AAPL at any given moment.
Keep in mind, he was the one who originally pumped up a ridiculous tiny touch screen iPhone nano that never happened.
Beware, Wu rides AAPL when it fits his self interests and jumps off AAPL when it doesn’t fit his self interests.
Morganstein is spot on. Wu is a no good, fair weather friend lying ass dog. Whatever fits the winds, that fuckup will go with. I not trust Wu, he lost it long ago when he caved like a coward.
so buy it you f@#$ bags!!!!!
He we go again with another Wu setup. Now if Apple doesn’t make the target that Wu put out there then he’ll comeback with a downgrade. His same trick over and over again. How is it that this hack has a job as an analyst?!?