Apple earnings promise to be stellar, but Wall Street will focus on Apple’s guidance

“It’s earnings season my friends,” Zach Bass writes for Seeking Alpha.

“When it’s Apple’s (AAPL) turn, it will undoubtedly report outstanding numbers, blowing away all analysts estimates. I’m sure of this, through anecdotal observation: every time I visit my local Apple Store it’s packed with people and product is flying out the door,” Bass writes.

“The company is sure to announce that it trounced the its goal of 10 million iPhones shipped in 2008. Then it’ll follow that up with the introduction of new products, probably just ahead of earnings, that will once again prove that Apple is the de facto leader of tech,” Bass writes.

“But after all that, it’ll have to provide forward looking guidance,” Bass writes. “And I can tell you right now that won’t be pretty. And Apple stock price will plummet, despite its outstanding fundamentals.”

“The forward guidance is expected to have Q1 earnings of $1.74 on revenues of $11.0 billion. If Apple’s CFO, Peter Oppenheimer, reports anything south of these numbers, expect a big selloff,” Bass writes. “Actually, expect a big selloff no matter what he reports. Perhaps Apple’s earnings call will be the the catalyst for market capitulation?”

Full article here.

Here’s an idea: Stop giving hard guidance, Apple. Nobody believes Apple’s guidance anyway and all it seems to do is give those who’d like to drive down the price a nice tool to use to do so.

18 Comments

  1. It just amazes me how a company as HEALTHY as Apple gets punished during earnings calls and all around for that matter… 20 plus billion in cash, no debt, packed retail stores, great pipeline, etc., etc… It’s just pathetic that completely leveraged companies see their stocks rise and companies like Apple suffer… It’s fscking ridiculous….

  2. Here are a few opinions I’ve posted recently on Seeking Alpha:

    1. A strong positive boost for the company may come toward the end of the year if large organizations follow in Der piegel’s footsteps and announce that they are switching to the Mac.

    2. Possibly some large mainframe computer maker might make a deal to resell Macs to its customer base. It would be beneficial to both parties.

    3. The Mac’s share of the PC pie is growing so rapidly it is mostly insulated from a shrinking of the size of the pie. I put it thus: Apple doesn’t have to outrun the bear, it just has to outrun Ballmer.

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