“It’s earnings season my friends,” Zach Bass writes for Seeking Alpha.
“When it’s Apple’s (AAPL) turn, it will undoubtedly report outstanding numbers, blowing away all analysts estimates. I’m sure of this, through anecdotal observation: every time I visit my local Apple Store it’s packed with people and product is flying out the door,” Bass writes.
“The company is sure to announce that it trounced the its goal of 10 million iPhones shipped in 2008. Then it’ll follow that up with the introduction of new products, probably just ahead of earnings, that will once again prove that Apple is the de facto leader of tech,” Bass writes.
“But after all that, it’ll have to provide forward looking guidance,” Bass writes. “And I can tell you right now that won’t be pretty. And Apple stock price will plummet, despite its outstanding fundamentals.”
“The forward guidance is expected to have Q1 earnings of $1.74 on revenues of $11.0 billion. If Apple’s CFO, Peter Oppenheimer, reports anything south of these numbers, expect a big selloff,” Bass writes. “Actually, expect a big selloff no matter what he reports. Perhaps Apple’s earnings call will be the the catalyst for market capitulation?”
Full article here.
Here’s an idea: Stop giving hard guidance, Apple. Nobody believes Apple’s guidance anyway and all it seems to do is give those who’d like to drive down the price a nice tool to use to do so.