“Based on the tremendous efforts by members at Mac Observer’s AFB [Apple Finance Board] to track IMEI iPhone numbers, we have determined that Apple has drastically surpassed analyst’ Q4 iPhone sales estimates, and that Apple has reached its goal of selling 10 million iPhones in 2008. The consensus estimates for iPhone sales figures for Apple’s Q4 (calendar Q3) were calling for approximately 4 million units. It now appears that Apple has sold at least 7 to 7.5 million iPhones in Q4—that’s nearly 80% above consensus. Apple has far surpassed even Gene Munster’s bullish estimates of 5 million iPhone sales in Q4 according to the data,” Andy M. Zaky and Turley Muller report for Bullish Cross.
“The latest IMEI [International Mobile Equipment Identity] data point collected by AFB was 9,190,680—an 8GB Black iPhone recorded as manufactured on September 29 and sold on October 5. This suggests that even if a whopping 1.5 million iPhones of the total IMEI registered devices are unsold as of today, an unlikely assumption, it would still put 3G iPhone sales at 7.6 million units and 2008 iPhone sales at over 10 million units,” Zaky and Muller report. “Coming into the quarter, Apple had already sold 2.42 million iPhones. Thus, 7.6 million 3G iPhones sold puts Apple above 10 million units for the year.”
More in the full article, including some well-deserved criticism of so-called analysts Toni Sacconaghi, Kathryn Huberty, and others, here.
[Attribution: Fortune. Thanks to MacDailyNews Reader “Jersey_Trader” for the heads up.]
Buy AAPL!
Imagine that. The only people who will be shocked are the dumb ass anal-ists who don’t have a fricken clue!
Just bought 470 AAPL at 93.-
wish i had money left. but i am all in already.
seems like this is more of a selling opportunity than buying… it goes up one day then oh look its down $10… I’ll hold off till im not losing an insane amount of money since I bought at 110 thinking it wouldn’t go down much more.
How about “dramatically” rather than “drastically,” which sounds negative.
Well, it’s down to $91.
Bought AAPL at 107, 103 and now at 93
more good news, AAPL will tank again, along with the rest of market.
for years people bought into the market no matter how bad things looked. all the economists i know started talking about “irrational exuberance.” now we have irrational panic.
…..may you live in interesting times.
I gotta find a way to free up more cash somehow. As it stands, I’m all in. At $134, then at $108. AAPL will not be back at $200 any time soon, but that’s the fault of the market rather than the company. Interesting that we could find $750B to bail out the Fat Cats but couldn’t find $750M to help a little in the schools, or health insurance, or … sorry, is my “liberal” bias showing?
AAPL will go down to 60$ that’s were i buy, i bought previously at 39$
“Just bought 470 AAPL at 93.-“
And sadly you just lost $6 /share. I’m with you though. I’m buying as soon as my sales settles from selling on the rumor that Steve was dead last week. (Friggin rumor mongers). I’ll end up clearing at least 15$ per share though when its all said and done
We’re entering uncharted financial territory here. DOW now under 10,000. NASDAQ down. S&P;down. International stocks down. Real estate is down. So even diversification didn’t help us.
The fact that AAPL is approaching “value stock” territory may reflect a buying opportunity, but those whose AAPL holdings are now “under water” aren’t cheered. This month’s conference call can’t come soon enough.
God i wish i had more cash to throw AAPL’s way. Last bought @ $128!
On March 17, 2008 “Scheduler” VERY SARCASTICALLY said:
“I come here daily and see MDN and the fanboys here bragging about the upcoming “game changer” and “bloodbath” because Apple themselves has targeted the stated goal of 1 whole percent of the world market. And now we see, they might not even achieve that. Wow, Iphone. Less than 1% of the market in a year and 1/2… Bloodbath. WOW! We currently have .4% of the market. As they say at MDN, “This is Huge”!!!!!!!!!!!!!!s”
Well, with a quarter to go, Apple has already reached its goal.
I think we will see the market go down a little more. As for sales numbers, did anyone really think the iPhone was not going to be a hit. People need cell phones and the price is right on the iPhone. They need insurance on them though. I have heard several people complain about the lack of insurance on the phone.
Apple’s going to the 20’s.
Suddenly 111 bucks a share looks pretty good now, doesn’t it losers?
In at 73 and despite everything I still own the exact same 5 square inches of the floorspace in One Infinite Loop that I did when the price was 200 (but perhaps with my luck its probably in the car park, not the research labs!)…
Anyone with half a clue about Apple, its products, its development, its competitors knows that it has a very, very bright future.
And I’m going in deeper once I have other corporate pension funds released…
Holy shit, 7+ million iPhones would mean the first quarter where Apple destroyed RIM’s BlackBerry sales (6.1 million).
Nobody would see that coming. Well I guess now they would…
AAPL is a steal at the current price levels. The earnings call on Oct 22 will be an absolute winner. As usual, the analysts have their heads up their rectums.
Now’s a good time to play Ballmer’s initial reaction to the iPhone announcement… Just one more time.
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I officially don’t understand the market AT ALL.
I never proclaimed to know much about the market. Now I’m resigned to the idea that I have no frickin’ clue whatsoever.
I bought many months ago at $134 and then I bought most recently at about $168. I was most proud of the second purchase, because it was right around the time of the 3G launch and I knew Apple would sell millions of them and the stock would hit $225 in no time.
Well, Apple did sell millions of them and millions of iPods and Macs, too. And the damn stock is less than half of where I expected to be.
Seriously, this economy must be totally f%&#ed;because if Apple can’t maintain its value then what corporation can?
To all you in at $134, $108…do you realize that you just lost 30, 40% of your money???
And you are bragging about it?
If you paid $13,400 for 100 shares ($134 each) you have not lost over $5,000 (now at $88).
In the toilet.
This is a total disaster.
Now with the price so low, some one could easily snap Apple up.
I do hope you are right, and I suspect that you will be. Sadly, the damage has already been done to Apple’s stock, by repeated and concerted attacks by hedge funds and shorts, often using ethically questionable tactics.
All this makes me wonder why people like Kathryn Huberty even has a job. I wish that I could be so inaccurate in what I do, and be well compensated for it. It seems that stock brokerage analysts cast far too large a shadow for their own good, and often lead investors far astray from the truth. Perhaps TV weather reporters and stock market analysts are two occupations where you can get away with complete and utter incompetence, so long as you look and sound good.
That said, I believe that in the long run, a stock’s price will track its earnings. And at this time, given Apple’s price declines, which I believe to be based on lies, false rumors and terrible analyst assessment, may give investors pause, just like today’s downswing in the Dow and worldwide markets. But if you look at earnings, not price, you will come to believe, as I do, that today is an opportunity, not a problem.
I close with the insightful words of Warren Buffet, who famously said, “Be greedy we others are fearful, and be fearful when others are greedy.”