“When RBC Capital analyst Mike Abramsky downgraded his Apple rating on Monday — helping spark the sharpest selloff in the company’s shares in eight years — he cited a survey that RBC conducted with ChangeWave that suggested that sales of Apple’s hot-selling computers were cooling off,” Philip Elmer-DeWitt reports for Fortune.
“RBC’s version of the survey showed that the percentage of technology consumers who plan to buy a Mac in the next 90 days had dropped from 34% in August to 29% in September, the biggest such decline in more than two year,” Elmer-DeWitt reports. “ChangeWave’s version, which was released Monday… focused on corporate purchase plans. It’s based on a survey of 1,947 individuals involved with IT spending within an organization and shows declines in the percentage of companies planning to buy Apple desktop or laptop computers over the next 90 days — from 8% to 7% for laptops and from 6% to 5% for desktops,” Elmer-DeWitt reports.
“These two bearish signals were enough to persuade Abramsky that it was time to downgrade Apple’s shares, from ‘outperform’ to ‘sector perform,'” Elmer-DeWitt reports. “But in the context of the ChangeWave survey, Apple hardly seems to be performing like the rest of its sector.”
“For one thing, Mac purchases have been trending up even as computer purchases across the board have been slumping,” Elmer-DeWitt reports, “Moreover, in his write-up of the survey, ChangeWave research VP Paul Carlton points out that the 1 point drop in corporate purchase plans for Macs was from a record high in May. He also notes that 18% of his respondents now say that their company is considering Apple for a future purchase, a 1 point increase. Finally, he adds:”
In an upbeat sign for Macs, respondents estimate that 18% of their company’s workforce would choose to use a Mac if it were left up to the employees themselves – triple the 6% who are currently using Macs. – ChangeWave research VP Paul Carlton
Elmer-DeWitt reports, “So there are indeed signs of a cooling trend for Apple, but it’s not at all clear that they justify an 18% drop in its share price.”
Full article, with the ChangeWave charts, here.
[Thanks to MacDailyNews Reader “Market Manipulator” for the heads up.]
As we wrote yesterday, according to Abramsky, 29% of consumers surveyed intend to buy a Mac over the next 90 days. Think about that for a second.
Think about this, too:
• Apple smashes Street; reports record third quarter results, all-time high Mac sales – July 21, 2008
• Apple smashes Street, reports record second quarter results – April 23, 2008
• Apple beats Street; reports best quarterly revenue and earnings in company history – January 22, 2008
• Apple bulldozes the Street; reports revenue of $6.22 billion, record 2.2 million Macs shipped – October 22, 2007
• Apple smashes Street; posts record Q3 revenue and profit – July 25, 2007
• Apple smashes Street, posts revenue of $7.1 billion and record net quarterly profit of $1 billion – January 17, 2007
AAPL lost $20,357,430,480 ($20.36 Billion – with a “B”) in market value [yesterday] and that, dear friends, is simply wholly disproportionate to reality. Period.
Those who keep their heads when others panic often profit handsomely.
Wall Street is a game. If you decide to participate, play it well.
MacDailyNews Note: In pre-market trading today, AAPL is currently up $2.00, or 1.90%, to $107.26.
Those that were margined & forced to sell have been screwed by these bastards.
Time to buy AAPL now!
All I can say is buy AAPL while it’s going cheap.
Play and play well, indeed.
I’m still holding off…. I was going to buy at 150… then it went to 130 then 120 and now 105…. The apple sale needs to end so I can buy and make lots of money 😀 or atleast recover my portfolio to not average at -34%
It Apple was the only stock hit I’d question why, but that is not the case. The stock market is contracting to realistic levels. The market was at 1000 in 1972, 3000 in 1991, and hit 10000 in 1999. The boom of the 90s is well known to have been a bubble, but the stock market never contracted to reflect for the bubble having burst.
It’s not analysis, it’s gambling.
Apple has further to drop before it levels off.
Classic stock market scenario. If you think the market is wrong and you have cash, YOU BUY!
John: I hope so. I’m looking to pull the trigger at 80.
Buy while is low. Sounds like good advice, but if the economy tanks, it will be the world economy that follows. I am not sure if selling Macs at record pace will be sustainable for at least the next year. Sure, it you buy Apple, stay the course and you will see benefits, but these might not show up until 2010. Next year, you can bet, will be a crummy year financially for everyone.
Good info just 1 day to late. It is what we already know and see. They may have sold some other stock to get cash. We will never know.
It would be great if these talking heads stop by their local Apple Store to see if things are slow or not. Apple is RIMM, Dell and HP’s problem. It is called a switch or up grading to a better product!
OUTRAGIOUS is what it is! I didn’t see google drop 100 points or any of the other computer companies. They are worse off than Apple by far. This was just plain and simple Apple being Apple with the mentality that it is still a small niche player. When the facts show all together DIFFERENT!!!! NO DEBT, 20 BILLION DOLLARS IN THE BANK. And more innovative products than anyone in the business period, ever!
I’m still in the black. I bought my shares at the last split around $40/share. And, I’m still holding for the long term. As most of the posters here agree, buy more while it’s still low.
MDN,
If you’re gonna revise or rethink a previous article, please leave the original article on the website (or specifically state that it’s an update / revision) and amend it so that people won’t think that you’re engaging in Orwellian revisionism of making your first article an ‘un-article’. I find that the compare / contrast / update much more informative and entertaining than the elimate / replace.
cheers…
/salute
MDN,
After looking at the list of articles on the main page, I realize that my previous response was unjustified since the original article to which i was referring is, in fact, still there…
Please consider my previous post an ‘un-post’.
That’s what happens when i engage my fingers b4 my brain… ;P
*sigh*
sure wall st is a game… market manipulation, pumping up stock with postings… maybe if you were able to provide a more unbiased, educated conversation on your belief in apple, it wouldn’t sound like you were trying to bring your shares above water
“MacDailyNews Take: As we wrote yesterday, according to Abramsky, 29% of consumers surveyed intend to buy a Mac over the next 90 days. Think about that for a second”
THINK ABOUT THE ECONOMY. If we continue to drop in our markets then people will focus on necessities and not on MACS.
The apple stock will go down if consumers are NOT spending money. Expectation shows reluctant buyers this season going into the Holidays.
Justified or not, I added another 100 shares at this bargain price (109). Wish I could buy more.
Yes unfounded. If anything MS should be tanking with the garbage and crap they have been doing for years. Yet that doesn’t happen…
Well, I took the plunge and bought 150 shares at 108.
Am I NUCKIN’ FUTS?
We have not yet reached the point where large files can be distributed over the internet and optical media done away with.
Even a CD’s 700Mb would take a painfully long time to download on the average internet connection, all the time hogging you bandwidth.
Blu-ray will be necessary for good quality HD movies and large software distributions.
If Apple do not include Blu-ray drives in their new MacBooks I will be very disappointed and confused.
Bought more.
Ninth buy this year.
Up and down. Investing for 2020.
Same thing happend in 1987…this is a buying opportunity.
When you bet on the ponies and pick a 3 legged horse you lose the whole bet.