Don’t hold your breath for Google’s Android to match Apple’s iPhone

“Anyone expecting the Google mobile operating system to change the market as Apple’s iPhone has over the past year will probably be disappointed – for now,” Yinka Adegoke reports for Reuters.

“Industry insiders who have worked on Google’s Android system say it will struggle in the near term to match the consumer enthusiasm generated by the iPhone, which redefined the touch-screen phone market and greatly improved mobile Web surfing,” Adegoke reports.

“These things take time, and the first phone using Android, code-named the Google ‘Dream’ phone, is unlikely to wow consumers. The device is made by HTC of Taiwan. Deutsche Telekom’s T-Mobile unit reportedly intends to introduce it in New York on Tuesday,” Adegoke reports. ‘I’m not sure the consumer experience is significantly better than that of the iPhone,’ said Rajeev Chand, a wireless analyst at the investment bank Rutberg, who has tried out an early version of Android. ‘When the iPhone came out, the experience was several orders of magnitude better than anything that was out there.'”

MacDailyNews Take: Because everything Google has done with Android to date has been derivative of the iPhone. Note to Google: Microsoft’s upside-down and backwards fake Mac worked because Macs were markedly more expensive; people who couldn’t afford them still wanted something remotely resembling a Mac-like experience on their consumer-grade PCs. Microsoft also had the one-time luxury of a poorly written contract signed by an unprepared sugared water salesbozo which allowed them to poorly rip-off Apple’s Mac ad infinitum. Apple’s iPhone starts at just $199 and Apple has over 200 iPhone-related patents that Steve Jobs has publicly-stated Apple will vigorously defend.

Adegoke continues, “While Android could offer real promise in terms of technology and usability it is unlikely by itself to change the restrictive nature of the mobile industry, said John Poisson, founder of Tiny Pictures, a developer partner of Android. ‘Carriers in each market will still control how it gets implemented and on which devices and in which form,’ Poisson said. ‘Android lives and breathes at the pleasure of the operator.'”

Adegoke reports, “Google is hoping to generate revenue through its existing search advertising and related services by the addition of mobile to PC. ‘Google’s power comes from the freedom of choice, in terms of the component technology and services that can be laid on top,’ said Cheng Wu, founder of Azuki Systems, a mobile Web technology company. ‘The only thing they want to control is the kernel of the operating system and the ability to data-mine for search and advertising down the road.'”

Full article here.

MacDailyNews Take: In an interview early this year, Apple CEO Steve Jobs was said to be “skeptical about Google’s decision to develop smartphone software… ‘Having created a phone its a lot harder than it looks,’ he said. ‘We’ll see how good their software is and we’ll see how consumers like it and how quickly it is adopted.’ In seeking not to get locked out of the mobile phone world, ‘I actually think Google has achieved their goal without Android, and I now think Android hurts them more than it helps them. It’s just going to divide them and people who want to be their partners.'” – The New York Times, January 15, 2008

23 Comments

  1. Android will be used to replace WinMo CE by OEM’s that don’t want to be at the mercy of MS’s crappy OS, but it will take about 2-3 more years for Google to get anywhere near what Apple is doing *now*…

    by then, Apple will have pushed the puck into the goal. Thanx 4 playing.

  2. If it includes a data-miner (think spyware) to clog their data service with unneaded traffic, the providers will discourage the phone’s purchase. These are the same groups that crippled mobile internet, by discouraging the production of phones with full browsers included.

  3. “These things [i.e. the ability to impress consumers with a product] take time, and the first phone using Android, code-named the Google ‘Dream’ phone, is unlikely to wow consumers.”

    Just curious… How much time did “these things” take for iPhone? Anyone?

  4. Since I’ve had nothing but issues in the past with AT&T;and as a current T-Mobile user, I can’t wait to check it out knowing full well I will be wishing it was an iPhone. But until iPhone is available on T-Mobile(USA)’s network, I am going to try the ‘roids. So no I won’t be wowed.

  5. Remember, it is not the phone itself nor the operating system. The Google phone needs a ‘Killer App”. The iPhone killer app was the web. The iPhone 3G was the App store. The iPod was iTunes and iTStore. Windows was Office. Apple ][ was VisiCalc.

    I think Google has a killer app up their sleave that they are not letting out yet to rivals. That killer app is the Cloud. Think Apples Mobile Me, but actually working, and being free. People would use it, love it, and buy Android if it is pulled off correctly. Google has invested too much money in Google Docs, Mail, Open Social, etc. to just let them sit there taking up useless space.

  6. I would think Google would be extremely optimistic if they made an operating system that worked within an order of magnitude as well as the iPhone OS. Particularly given that everyone and their dog [particularly carriers in the US] has both different idea’s about how the UI should work and what should be ‘featured’. For a prime example, see the Motorola RAZRv3. Same manufacturer, 3 carriers, 3 completely different feature sets.

  7. @Dallas,

    You hit a home run. This is exactly what I expect Google to provide. And I’m still disappointed that Apple chose to go their own route with Mobile Me rather than partner with Google. Apple has no business on the server side of things. I used to have .Mac but it was utter crap. I now use Gmail, Google Calendar, Google Talk and Google Docs. And I’m doing some programming with Google App Engine.

  8. In truth, the idea of Android was born before the idea of the iPhone. You see, we at Google never really believed that Apple would develop a phone. You have to get into bed with all sorts of unsavory types like AT&T;, Verizon, Sprint, etc.

    Look under Control Freak in the dictionary, and you’ll see a picture of Steve Jobs there. (Love the guy). Apple (read Steve), likes to control the entire user experience and when a cell phone company is involved, well that’s just one big pile of sh… uh, user experience that Apple can’t control.

    So we were in no hurry.

    Apple fooled us. They did bring out a cell phone.

    Apple fooled us twice.

    Not only did they bring out a cell phone, but they’ve taken to the whole being an a-hole to consumers thing like they were a cell phone company all along.

    With the iPhone, Apple is making Microsoft look positively OPEN!

    Once developers find out that we won’t prevent them from writing and distributing applications any way they see fit, they will rejoice and come to our team. Once developers find out that we won’t punish them if they write an application that makes fart noises, they will beat a path to our door. Once consumers find out that they can get any application out there without US deciding what’s appropriate, they will come around.

    We won’t be creating an app store like Apple, but we will be creating a list of Google tested applications for consumers to feel comfortable with.

    We won’t be skimming 30% of the developer’s profits like you know who and saying it covers the cost of infrastructure.

    Please.

    In addition, we are pushing a device, not a video codec, so our Android phone won’t block things like FLASH, Windows Media, DIVX, or QuickTime. We will truly be open. Our Chrome browser will running on every Android phone and will offer users a far better Internet experience.

    How many times have you read “SAFARI CAN’T DOWNLOAD THAT FILE” on you iPhones?

    Flash is extremely small. It’s very easy to implement. There is no technical reason Apple can’t. They just want to force you to use MP4.

    We love MP4, and Android will handle that just fine, allong with all the others.

    MPEG4, H.264, MP3, AAC, AMR, JPG, PNG, GIF

    We won’t block development tools create by others.

    We won’t block Java. In fact it will be the primary development platform for Android.

    We are completely O P E N.

    Therein lies the difference.

    We are not about controlling every aspect of the phone. We believe you purchased the phone, it belongs to you. We are creating a platform.

    We are approaching this from a very different direction than Apple or even Microsoft.

    Our mobile platform will be first. It will work together with our constantly evolving Google Apps like no other platform.

    From there we will move to slightly larger mobile cloud access devices. Android will scale up more effectively than OS X scales down.

    So when the highly unimaginative author suggest that you shouldn’t wait for us to become like Apple, he is effectively correct.

    You are the silver lining in our cloud.

    There can be only one.

    The Goog.

  9. I go along with what some of the later comments have been. There are a lot of possibilities that Google brings to the table that will make Android be a very welcome fit for mobile phones. I see it attracting users that would never have thought about buying an iPhone, and the losers aren’t necessarily Apple, but more probably, Microsoft.

    That’s why I’ve been rooting for Android. Also, it wouldn’t hurt for Apple to have some kind of technical competition. Afterall, we never got that from Microsoft. This would be someone to keep Apple moving forward and blowing away our expectations.

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