“An analyst has predicted that the iPhone could eventually rival the Mac range as Apple’s primary source of income,” Ben Furfie reports for Mobile Entertainment.
“American Technology Research analyst, Shaw Wu made the prediction in an investment note, saying that the iPhone could eventually add up to $20 billion to the firm’s revenues,” Furfie reports. “‘[While the] iPhone is a relatively minor contributor today, at only three to four per cent of revenue, we believe it has the potential to become a very significant driver over the next two to five years,’ Wu wrote. ‘We envision iPhone one day becoming as large as the current Mac business.'”
Furfie reports, “Maintaining his buy rating for the vendor’s stock and upping his target price to $220 a share, Wu said that he predicts Apple will sell some 11 million iPhones, rising to 17 million in 2009, with a total of 31.6 million shipped.”
Full article here.
iPhone WILL become as large as Mac business for Apple
Yes, can Apple give the rest of us access to the connector and software so that we can connect the iPhone \ iPod Touch to a big screen this would be great for game play:-)
and so the stock goes down. i don’t get it. 20 billion extra in revenue and the stock tanks? what’s wrong with me?
I love the ability of some of these “experts” to state the obvious.
And it will probably exceed the Mac clone business:
“Apple, Inc., manufacturer of the well known line of computers and software, filed suit on July 3 in the federal district court for the northern district of California against Florida company Psystar, Inc. The suit alleges counts for violation of its shrink wrap license, trademark and copyright infringement.”
(http://blogs.zdnet.com/hardware/?p=2240)
Seemingly, week by week, I replace my MacBook more and more with a quick grab of the iPhone.
Moved four novels to it yesterday.
It’s what everyone wants: anything, anywhere, anytime.
An extra-somatic memory module.
Apple sold 1M iPhones last weekend. That is 0.5B revenue already. I think it’s a safe bet that Apple re on to a winner.
Check out the stats on this iPhone launch survey:
“The iPhone IS a Mac.”
———————–
Thie iPhone is only a Mac if the extent of your computing needs is email, the web, photos and iTunes…
However, if you are a professional who uses their computers for creating and getting work done. Then no, the iPhone IS NOT a Mac, it is a mobile device.
From Joe Wilcox at eWeek – An Interesting Comparison:
iPhone 3G: Windows 95, Only Better
“Windows 95 was a remarkable moment in personal computing. Its successor has come.
But not from Microsoft. Apple has launched the defining platform of the early 21st century. The PC is dead—or will be. Long live the smart phone, er, iPhone.”
(http://blogs.eweek.com/applewatch/content/iphone/iphone_3g_windows_95_only_better.html_
Apple can sell fifteen times as many iPhones as they are today? That’s what it would take just to get CLOSE to the Mac business. That is, if the Mac business stops growing. Anyone care to predict that possibility?
Both products are limited by their market niches – the TOP of the markets, to be specific. The Pro of said niches is there’s a lot of profit to be made from each sale. The Con is that they only make up between 10% and 50% of the total market. And the phone market offers decided differences for the associated price – most folks are like me and can manage (just fine, thanks) with a low-feature phone at a much lower price point. We don’t question the added value of the “smart phones”, we just don’t see those added features equaling added value for US!
I see the iPhone as becoming a significant contributor to Apple’s bottom line – easily into the double digits – but half? Macs unit sales are growing at, what? double digits annually? There’s going to be a lot of catch-up going on before the iPhone line captures enough of the smart-phone niche to beat the Mac profit line.
“The Con is that they only make up between 10% and 50% of the total market” – DLMeyer
I don’t see it as a con. Of course if you compare it to MS monopoly, or the iPod one, it looks like nothing. But if you take a look at any other leading organization in its field, you’ll see that 15, 20 or 30% market share is a very good number.
So 10% is perfect if, on top of that, you want to MAINTAIN QUALITY. If Mac and iPhone got both 15% of worlwide market shares in their respective field, Apple will be as lucrative as GE, MS or any other very big one. Believe me. They don’t need more than that!!!
Well, to be honest, I think you’re going to see the iPhone market pretty much hold where it is and stagnate until the iPhone, as marvelous as the UI is, catches up in functionality to other business mobile devices.
I have yet to watch the video of the “must have” applications from Uncle Walt the Apple bootlicker, but my cursory examination of apps didn’t show me anything all that compelling. Sure you can play monkey ball or some such crap, but I didn’t buy the device to play games on or sync my shopping list to the Internet.
Here we have iPhone 2.0. I still cannot:
1. Attach the phone directly to my computer and move files back and forth as easily as I can a freaking $60 32GB thumb drive. I should be able to create folders on the device just like it was a hard drive and move files back and forth. I can do this with Windows Mobile for crying out loud, and Microsoft doesn’t even support the Mac!!!
Come on. I need that more than I need an “Accelerometer.”
2. This whole brick your phone every time there’s an update thing is old. My phone was already activated. Leave it activated dammit. Having a device that Apple literally disables just so they can inflict punitive measures on people who try to USE the darn things is ridiculously authoritarian, more Microsoft than Microsoft even.
3. I still can’t see the vast majority of the video on the Internet. Why is there no WMV player? Why is there no Flash player? If the darned thing played more video I would have been inclined to update. 3G is not a good reason to pay MORE for the iPhone. I.E. give us $300 more and $200 a year more and we’ll let you surf the web a bit faster?? Come on Apple. Give me a real reason to pay that much more money.
4. Copy and Past. ‘Nuff said.
5. No MMS. I’d have to use something called “SwirlyMMS” or some such rot that breaks every time I update the phone. MMS may be primitive but people use it. They take pictures and send them to a phone number without having to think about it.
6. Why the hell still no iChat?
7. Has anyone tried the new speaker phone? I’d be interested in hearing if it works better or at least as good as my Blackberry.
8. Why is the iPhone not able to be a client on an AppleShare network?
9. Why is the ability to finally delete multiple e-mail messages not carried over to other list apps like Text Messaging???
Maybe I just expect more from Apple because my thinking is molded from over 23 years of Mac use, but iPhone 2.0 only begins to address just some of the issues I have with the iPhone.
I mean come on, you can’t even create a folder on the stupid thing without MobileMe???
Darn right fascist.
I just went to the article that lists the apps I should look at for my iPhone. Unfortunately I did this with my iPhone and I can’t play the attached video.
your points are just stupid
got that stupid
so look in the mirror and say why do I hate myself?????
wanker, ass-hat
fu
Why no iChat? Wake up….
AOL released their AIM client. It’s in the App Store. It’s the same as iChat. Use it.
ralph from berlin writes, “and so the stock goes down. i don’t get it. 20 billion extra in revenue and the stock tanks? what’s wrong with me?”
It’s not you, and it’s not Apple. It’s the market. Less than a year ago the Dow was around 14,000, three months ago it was 13,000. Today it’s on the verge of falling below the 11,000 floor. The Nasdaq isn’t doing any better. The sub-prime crisis, falling dollar and high oil prices have raised concerns world-wide.
@ MikeK said: “The iPhone is only a Mac if the extent of your computing needs is email, the web, photos and iTunes… However, if you are a professional who uses their computers for creating and getting work done. Then no, the iPhone IS NOT a Mac, it is a mobile device.”
You’re wrong MikeK. For 80% of the people, e-mail, the web (and access to all the web applications) and perhaps an industry specific App (like Salesforce) is all they need.
Definition of Mindless Fanboy:
—————————————————–
Comment from: hey thelonious
your points are just stupid
got that stupid
so look in the mirror and say why do I hate myself?????
wanker, ass-hat
fu
————————————————-
I hear if you hang out in Coupertino long enough, you can get toilet scrapings from places that Steve Jobs visits, you know, if you want to spice up your fanboy soup a bit.
@Raymond in DC…
Actually, notwithstanding the largely media generated sense of crisis, this is always the pattern with Apple.
The stock starts to creep up as people buy based on rumors and promises of some new device, product, or service from Apple. Then moments after the announcement, we all sell. It’s the standard game no matter how good or “bad” things are.
The stock market was created to provide an avenue for businesses to generate needed capital to expand, and for investors to purchase equity in companies they viewed as having growth potential.
It’s been perverted into a bad version of Monopoly now. Every moron sitting around in his wife beaters and boxer shorts thinks he’s a day trader. Stocks are no longer an indication of the reality of an organization’s status and potential.
@DLMeyer said: Apple can sell fifteen times as many iPhones as they are today? That’s what it would take just to get CLOSE to the Mac business.”
Sell fifteen times more iPhones? Easily. Apple sold 6 million iPhones over the first 12 months of availability. They sold another million this weekend. They’re projecting another 6 million for this year and another 45 million for next year. Over 100 million smartphones sold last year and Gardner stated that the market was growing at a 29% clip. Do the math. Apple will be selling 90 million iPhones (15 times 6 million) in no time.
The Mac business will increase as the “halo effect ” of the iPhone
takes hold. Introducing consumers to the OS thru the iPhone is an interesting concept and should interest folks in getting away from Windows and heading to Mac.
Apple hasn’t added this, Apple hasn’t added that. Understand people, Apple nor any other “smart” company is going to give you everything that you want. It would be bad for business. How would Apple do frequent software updates if they just put it all in one release? If you haven’t noticed Apple is worried about their business , their not worried about how you think they should operate.
$20B is roughly 40M iPhones a year, which is pretty close to Gene Munster’s prediction of 45M iPhones next year.