The new iPhone 3G from Apple is going to have a tsunami-like impact on the smartphone market, according to a new ChangeWave survey of 3,567 consumers conducted in the aftermath of Apple’s June 9th announcement.
At present, the Canadian Blackberry manufacturer Research in Motion (RIMM; 42%, unchanged) is the clear consumer smart phone market leader among smart phone owners.
But the biggest mover over the past 90 days has been the Apple iPhone (11%; up 2 points), which continues to make major inroads in the consumer marketplace. Having gained market share for the fourth-consecutive survey, it is now close to wrestling the number two spot away from Palm (PALM; 14%, down 2 points) which has sunk to a new record low.
“These numbers are good news for Apple,” said Tobin Smith, founder of ChangeWave Research and editor of ChangeWave Investing, “but it’s when we asked respondents about their planned smart phone purchases over the next 90 days that the tsunami-like effect of this marketplace transformation becomes crystal clear.”
The Coming Apple Tsunami
The survey found that a full 56% of respondents who plan to purchase a smart phone in the next 90 days say they’re getting an Apple iPhone – a huge 21-pt leap from the previous survey.
The accompanying chart shows just how dramatic a jump in market share this represents:
Going forward, RIM’s share of consumer planned purchases is set to take a hit over the next 90 days, falling 6-pts to 23%. Palm remains a far distant third with just 3% of planned purchases.
Note that the above chart focuses exclusively on the 10.5% of total survey respondents who say they plan on buying a smart phone during the next 90 days. The 10.5% represents a sharp jump from the previous survey in March, and it is the highest percentage of planned smart phone buyers recorded in a ChangeWave survey.
“The most likely explanation for such a large-scale projected increase in smart phone buyers going forward is the anticipation and publicity surrounding the imminent release of the 3G iPhone,” said Smith.
In another positive for the new iPhone 3G, better than one-in-two current iPhone owners (55%) say they’re Very Likely to buy the iPhone 3G for themselves or someone else in the future. And many don’t plan to wait long. Among this group, half (50%) say they’ll purchase within the first 90 days of release.
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Cue the bloodbath.
