ChangeWave: Apple iPhone 3G to have tsunami–like impact on smartphone market

The new iPhone 3G from Apple is going to have a tsunami-like impact on the smartphone market, according to a new ChangeWave survey of 3,567 consumers conducted in the aftermath of Apple’s June 9th announcement.

At present, the Canadian Blackberry manufacturer Research in Motion (RIMM; 42%, unchanged) is the clear consumer smart phone market leader among smart phone owners.

But the biggest mover over the past 90 days has been the Apple iPhone (11%; up 2 points), which continues to make major inroads in the consumer marketplace. Having gained market share for the fourth-consecutive survey, it is now close to wrestling the number two spot away from Palm (PALM; 14%, down 2 points) which has sunk to a new record low.

“These numbers are good news for Apple,” said Tobin Smith, founder of ChangeWave Research and editor of ChangeWave Investing, “but it’s when we asked respondents about their planned smart phone purchases over the next 90 days that the tsunami-like effect of this marketplace transformation becomes crystal clear.”

The Coming Apple Tsunami

The survey found that a full 56% of respondents who plan to purchase a smart phone in the next 90 days say they’re getting an Apple iPhone – a huge 21-pt leap from the previous survey.

The accompanying chart shows just how dramatic a jump in market share this represents:

Going forward, RIM’s share of consumer planned purchases is set to take a hit over the next 90 days, falling 6-pts to 23%. Palm remains a far distant third with just 3% of planned purchases.

Note that the above chart focuses exclusively on the 10.5% of total survey respondents who say they plan on buying a smart phone during the next 90 days. The 10.5% represents a sharp jump from the previous survey in March, and it is the highest percentage of planned smart phone buyers recorded in a ChangeWave survey.

“The most likely explanation for such a large-scale projected increase in smart phone buyers going forward is the anticipation and publicity surrounding the imminent release of the 3G iPhone,” said Smith.

In another positive for the new iPhone 3G, better than one-in-two current iPhone owners (55%) say they’re Very Likely to buy the iPhone 3G for themselves or someone else in the future. And many don’t plan to wait long. Among this group, half (50%) say they’ll purchase within the first 90 days of release.

More info here.

Cue the bloodbath.


  1. Note that this is showing shares of a market that is, itself, growing. That initial “4%” is much less significant than the current “11%”, while Palm’s actual sales are stronger than suggested by their loss of nearly half their market share. While the Blackberry’s market share seems stagnant, their unit sales are growing!
    The tsunami is within sight of the shoreline, and it’s coming in. This rising tide is lifting all boats, I expect a few will swamp and sink.

  2. From the “more here” over on page/story about Steve talking with some folks

    “… but personally I’m a big-bang guy.” For the first time that day he smiled. “The risk with a fast burn,” he continued, “is that it exposes you to your enemies. You’re going to need a lot of money to fight thieves.”

    And boy does he have that patented

    What we saw year ago with 1st jPhone

    What we’ll see this week with 2nd jComing

    Why is good to have $20 Billion in bank

    Change the World™


  3. Remember though that this is a survey of consumers – people who make the purchasing decision. Most Blackberrys will be bought ‘for’ their owners by IT departments in companies. Again, Apple needs to court the IT decision makers to have the iPhone as one of a choice of two in companies – then we will see even larger numbers of iPhones sold.

    Will RIM have their Blackberry software ready for the iPhone on Friday downloadable from the App store?

  4. Damn physical keyboards, ever tried to type Chinese 中文 with Frènch keyboard. Even using Scåndinavian keyboard to type English is a pain. I guess it’s fine if you always use only one language.

  5. Let’s call the iPhone 3G what it really is, a smartphone killer.

    And like DRM sucks said, “still no physical keyboard… yet!” which I took to mean Apple has already proven a physical keyboard is a liability and a limitation.

    Limits? We doan need no stinkin’ limits!

  6. @reality check
    I have a phone with GPS-I have used it once, just to see what it did and how it worked. To me it is next to useless.
    AT&T;edge is pretty quick, but the 3g is nicer and is the reason I will buy an iPhone friday(that and the 16GB storage).

    Apple does not need to own or dominate the smart phone market, just cut off a respectable slice.

  7. did i tell you? i’m getting an iPhone.
    i’m getting an iPhone i’m getting an iPhone i’m getting an iPhone i’m getting an iPhone i’m getting an iPhone i’m getting an iPhone
    take that you WINDOWS LEMMINGS!!

Reader Feedback

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.