“Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster estimates that 53 percent of Apple’s total addressable market for the new 3G mobile phone will be pre-paid customers who’d forgo lengthy service agreements, and thus wouldn’t be privy to hefty subsidies offered to those buyers who’d sign multi-year contracts with carriers,” Sam Oliver reports for AppleInsider.
“Therefor, pre-paid subscribes will in all likelihood wind up paying in excess of $600 for the new touch-screen handset, he said. The estimate assumes Apple charges carriers an average $425 for the new phone and those carriers then turn around and mark up the pre-paid handsets another $175 or so to turn a profit,” Oliver reports.
“Given those costs are around three times more than the $199 subsidized price Apple and its wireless partners plan to charge contract customers for an 8GB iPhone 3G, the analyst believes pre-paid customers won’t make up a proportionate share of global iPhone sales — a belief he’s factored into his current model.,” Oliver reports.
“More specifically, Munster’s model calls for Apple to sell 12.9 million iPhones in 2008 and 45 million in 2009, which would garner the Cupertino-based company a 17 percent slice of the global smartphone market [and 27% of North American market] by the end of next year,” Oliver reports. “Of the 12.9 million iPhones in 2008, he estimates 2.7 million will be purchased by pre-paid subscribers. In 2009, he sees just 5.7 million of the 45 million units going to pre-paid customers.”
Much more in the full article, including FY08 and 09 smartphone and iphone unti sales estimate charts, here.