Analyst estimates Apple will grab 27% share of North American smartphone market in 2009

“Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster estimates that 53 percent of Apple’s total addressable market for the new 3G mobile phone will be pre-paid customers who’d forgo lengthy service agreements, and thus wouldn’t be privy to hefty subsidies offered to those buyers who’d sign multi-year contracts with carriers,” Sam Oliver reports for AppleInsider.

“Therefor, pre-paid subscribes will in all likelihood wind up paying in excess of $600 for the new touch-screen handset, he said. The estimate assumes Apple charges carriers an average $425 for the new phone and those carriers then turn around and mark up the pre-paid handsets another $175 or so to turn a profit,” Oliver reports.

“Given those costs are around three times more than the $199 subsidized price Apple and its wireless partners plan to charge contract customers for an 8GB iPhone 3G, the analyst believes pre-paid customers won’t make up a proportionate share of global iPhone sales — a belief he’s factored into his current model.,” Oliver reports.

“More specifically, Munster’s model calls for Apple to sell 12.9 million iPhones in 2008 and 45 million in 2009, which would garner the Cupertino-based company a 17 percent slice of the global smartphone market [and 27% of North American market] by the end of next year,” Oliver reports. “Of the 12.9 million iPhones in 2008, he estimates 2.7 million will be purchased by pre-paid subscribers. In 2009, he sees just 5.7 million of the 45 million units going to pre-paid customers.”

Much more in the full article, including FY08 and 09 smartphone and iphone unti sales estimate charts, here.

20 Comments

  1. Analysts estimate that Analysts’ Estimates will increase 38% in 2009. The estimates are based off of analysts’ findings that analysts are increasing in number, but also in estimates per analysts.

    According to Microshaft, Analysts expect to “sell” 3 million more units in CY2009, though our analysts estimate that only 4 will actually end up in consumers hands.

    In other news, an analyst for Jim Cramer analyzed his remark of “Analyze THIS!” in response to SEC queries regarding stock manipulation and found out that Jim Cramer’s head is in fact shoved up his own @$$ 32% more than it 12 months prior.

  2. When will people learn that there is no smartphone market. There is the mobile phone market and the OS X phone market. Apple has the OS X market. The other market is in tatters.

  3. Okay, I’m getting tired of people saying the iPhone will cost $600. The truth is that the phone AND the voice/data service will cost $600. It’s not like all the money is just for the phone.

    Some people’s iPhones will cost thousands to use with this line of thinking. That’s because the media content (music, tv shows, movies) also have a cost. Should we roll this into the price as well?

    Now, it is fair to say that this incarnation of the iPhone will cost more than the other if the minimum plan does in fact cost more in the long run. Fair enough. But let’s at least look at the bigger picture every now and then.

    BTW, AT&T;does suck. It never bothers me when they write that . . .

  4. Has anyone read the articles about the Samsung OMINA phone thats comming out – AT&T;exclusive carrier as well… it Sounds REALLY impressive on paper. Will have many features that the iPhone lacks… Good competiton = Excellent iPhone upgrades… I hope.

  5. to MidWest Mac:

    You don’t seem to understand the article. The price of $600 will be for the phone ALONE. In other words, you go into a store, pay $600 and get an iPhone. You don’t sign any two-year contract; what you have is an iPhone for which you can pay as you go.

    Now, if you want to get your iPhone for $200 (as Apple and AT&T have been advertising), you will have to sign a contract for two years of voice and data services for at least $70 per month.

    In the US, it is dificult to find unsubsidised phones without a plan. In the rest of the world, as Gene Munster predicts, it might be 50%.

    All in all, the actual amout of money that Apple will be getting for this phone will probably be in line with the old iPhone. They just might make even higher profits on this one, though, since the manufacturing costs may be even lower (which is interesting, since they’re putting in a GPS chip and a 3G chip).

  6. KenC:

    I think Munster’s number for 2008 are for iPhone 3G only. This doesn’t count the iPhones 1.0 already sold, and means that Apple should sell almost 13 million in under six months. With proper growth rate, 45 million in 2009 doesn’t sound so far-fetched.

  7. Are Munster’s estimates for 2009 a running total?
    (13m in 2008 plus 32m in 2009 = 45milion iPhones by end of 2009)

    Or does Munster’s expect Apple would have sold 58 million iPhone by the end of 2009?

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