“Needham & Co. analyst Charles Wolf this morning raised his firm’s target price on Apple stock to $240 (from $235), predicting Apple will sell near 30 million iPhones next year,” Andy Space reports for 9 to 5 Mac.
“In an extensive briefing despatched to clients this morning, Wolf shared calculations which suggest the installed base of iPhone users will reach 150 million in the next ten years – the equivalent of 5 per cent of the installed base of mobile phone owners in that year,” Space reports.
“On strength of the much-improved iPhone offering (principally based on price), the analyst expects the iPhone 3G will snare 7 per cent of the US mobile phone market next year, with sales of 14 million units there; beyond the US, Wolf estimates international iPhone sales will hit 15.6 million sales next year, for a total figure just shy of 30 million total sales in 2009,” Space reports.
“The analyst also notes the real deal behind all this activity, predicting the combination of the existing iPod halo with the growing iPhone halo will drive Mac sales far, far higher,” Space reports. “‘The addition of the iPhone halo effect increases the number of Macs sold in 2017 from 40 million units in the previous forecast to 44 million units in the updated one,’ he wrote in his report.”
Much more in the full article here.
next …. ten… years?
That’s a long forcast…
Nice to see the positive news, but I don’t see how they can make a prediction 10 years into the future. Not with a straight face anyway.
forget 10 years, let’s look to the future, all the way to the year 2000!
“That’s a long forcast…”
It’s also a long forecast.
10 years into the future seems almost unimaginable, yet 10 years ago seems almost like yesterday.
“‘The addition of the iPhone halo effect increases the number of Macs sold in 2017 from 40 million units in the previous forecast to 44 million units in the updated one,’ he wrote in his report.”
Good grief. Damning with faint praise, or worthless forecasting? Or both.
Guidance for tens years out is highly speculative, who could have envisioned the type of technology we have today based on what we had in 1998? Maybe Steve and a view other gifted individuals but it’s a sure bet that Apple Inc. will surprise all with products of a direction perhaps not considered before. with nano technolgy I see the iphone the size of single playing card in ten years with blue tooth to a earbud receiver. Take the guidance and double it! Buy Apple stock and enjoy the ride.
There’s one problem to all these forecasts. There’s a big move, probably from the inside of Apple, to dump the stock when it reaches the high points. You can see this whenever it climbs to a new high, it dives back down again, even against the predictions by the financial geeks. It’s kinda like the Russians wanting to sell all the gold and oil they have in reserves but not wanting to drive prices down too much.
Just my $.02
So very, very true, iWill!
funny stuff….
generally an analyst says something about next week, and everyone here reams him or her for saying “the obvious.”
this guy actually does his job, and everyone complains that he is full of it.
look, i know they are a right pain in the butt at times, but at least this analyst did his job. give him a break!