“On March 6, Apple unveiled a software development kit, or SDK, for third-party developers to build applications for the iPhone, and support for Microsoft Corp.’s Exchange ActiveSync that will give the iPhone features such as push email and other capabilities,” Rex Crum reports for MarketWatch.
“In a report Monday, Toni Sacconaghi of Bernstein Research called the moves ‘positive developments’ for Apple and the iPhone, but questioned whether the efforts will be enough to help the company reach its goal of selling 10 million iPhones this year, or have much of an impact on the device’s position in the handset market,” Crum reports.
Crum reports, “Sacconaghi said the SDK is ‘critical to Apple’s maintaining the iPhone’s [market] positioning,’ but that it won’t necessarily make the iPhone more attractive to enterprise users. ‘We note that many mobile enterprise applications likely to be available on the iPhone (such as Salesforce.com) are already available for other wireless devices,’ he wrote.”
“Sacconaghi believes that architectural differences between ActiveSync and the BlackBerry service already “present a barrier for many corporate IT systems.” Because of that, Sacconaghi said he doesn’t expect the iPhone to became a standard-issue device at many large corporations. The device is more likely to find a niche with smaller business that will offer support for employees personal iPhones,” Crum reports.
Crum reports, “He said that the biggest stimulus to iPhone sales will probably be a price cut, or new models with lower prices than current devices.”
Full article here.
In related news, Sacconaghi pranced around his Bernstein office proclaiming his belief in the Tooth Fairy while expressing serious doubts about the wetness of water. Later he confided, “I really don’t know anything about all this cellphone stuff, but those nice bears keep signing my checks, so…”
Inside, Outside Upside Down.
Is anybody else getting sick of this ’10 million iPhones in 2008′ deal? The media and the bloggers seem to be completely obsessed with it. It seems to be a lost fact that the iPhone is doing really well and will continue to do so. I can just see it now….December 28th 2008, and Apple has sold ‘only’ 9.5 m, and the bashers go to work….
Pranced?
“Those nice bears…”
LOL!
This is an “analyst”? The SDK may be important for continued growth, but “critical”? Seriously? As for the differences between ActiveSync and Blackberry’s service … doesn’t “better” usually win out?
The things mentioned as already available on other phones are merely minor blockages that can be removed, if needed. It isn’t that Apple can brag about this or that “killer app” so much as the Win ME and RIM folk will no longer be able to proclaim their “killer apps”. Thus, it’s less a question of “making the iPhone more attractive” as one of “removing impediments”.
As for “the iPhone becoming standard issue”, I don’t know if that was ever in the plan. Not every company issues cell phones to employees, or at least not to most of them. This doesn’t mean the employees won’t be able to use an iPhone THEY own to access the Enterprise mail and such.
Dave
Hmmmmm.
Uhhhhhhh.
Speechless.
Uh, I just have trouble taking anything seriously from a dude named “Toni”. I know it’s probably short for Antonio but still.
I should have said that while I’m tired of hearing about it, I believe 10 million iPhones will be sold this year. The top brass wouldn’t continue to stand by it if they weren’t very sure of that number. I’m thinking they may have some information in their hip pocket that gives them extra confidence…
Sacconaghi’s Ulterior Motive:
To talk down the stock he’s shorted without getting investigated by the SEC.
throw all the pot shots at this guy you want, but toni is a very good analyst. i disagree with him on this issue, though. funny responses on this site, as always.
@Scheduler
It’s a great product – suck it slow – you’ll find it tastes good. I don’t care if it is 10m in march of 2009 – because I know it will be 20m after that… and then 30m etc.
Regarding small vs. big businesses: 95% of businesses in America are “small”. So sounds like a good start as a target to me….
@ Scheduler says: “Wow, Iphone. Less than 1% of the market in a year and 1/2…”
You are dismissing Apple’s goal of gaining 1% of market share as unimpressive. There are 1 Billion phones on the market. The vast majority of them are subsidized and provided free or at little cost. The iPhone is a high end, extremely high margin product. Selling a $400 phone when it is competing against free is, in fact, very impressive.
People often obsess over market share. But it is profits – not market share – that matters. I believe that HP sold ten times as many computers as Apple did last year but netted only twice as much profit. Ask any business which they would rather have – high volume and low margins or low volume and high margins and their answer would be unanimous. Give me the business that sells less units and makes me greater profits.
Stop obsessing over market share. The goal is to make money. And Apple is making tons of money from the iPhone.
You guys don’t like this guy….
Wait ’til y’all read Mac|Life’s review of the MBA.
Just my $0.02
It’s interesting – and hilarious – to read posts and “articles” by folks such as “Scheduler” and this Sacconaghi..
Every time they type a word they show their ass and lack of intelligence, knowledge and lack of understanding of the market..
CR
The 8GB iPhone was already the 3rd most popular smartphone in 2007, and it was only available for half the year. Not even taking into account the upcoming SDK or the price drops at the end of last year (which weren’t available all last year, but obviously will be all this year), it’s on quite a trajectory. If the iPhone does in fact become the #1 smartphone by the end of 2008, which it very well may, you can hardly say it’s “not a big deal”.
Since almost everyone but this research group don’t really have a problem with Apple’s 2008 iPhone prediction, let’s assume that the iPhone will in fact hit 1% world marketshare by the end of this year. It wasn’t even competing against non-smartphones, which RIM doesn’t sell either, and it won’t even have been available in all countries, so 1% total would be rather amazing. Still, look at a more relevant number, like “US Smartphone marketshare”, and you will find that it has already gone from 0% to over 28% of the US smartphone market (at the beginning of Februrary), meaning it’s been growing at a rapid pace of over 3% a month, WITHOUT any SDK. By the end of 2008, at this rate, it may well be over 50%, what with the introduction of the mobile industry’s most powerful SDK.
The iPhone’s nothing to sneeze at.
It’s not even midyear. Predictions about sales volume before the sdk comes out is pure speculation– and a nice way to pad empty white space real reports might otherwise fill.
iPhone is a big success and will get much bigger. I don’t care what predictions are– as long as it makes money and becomes THE mobile platform others try to emulate, that’s goo enough. In reality, this is entirely under-shooting what will happen. In fact, iPhone is going to take over, much like iPod did.
Just sayin’.
I have personally been involved in 4 iPhone purchases this last week. Saturday, my friend attempted to buy a 16 Gig for his wife’s b-day. Well he had to get it at an AT&T;store, because all four Apple stores here in Houston where completely out of that model. So, to me, this seems like there is plenty of demand. Apple keeps adding countries to the list at a slow but steady pace.
I might be blinded by my own small observations, but I think Apple is going to exceed the 10 million mark.
NOTHING is SURE… who can just tell such b…it?
Existence is MADE of uncertainty from the beginning to the end… period.
Sorry, I forgot to mention it, but of course the recent introduction of the 16GB iPhone will also to some extent help 2008 sales, of course, in addition to the 2007 trajectory.
I’m waiting for Prince Mclean or Daniel Eran Dilger to rip this SackeyHackey another one.
Entrance into enterprise is a great move, but the 10 million units in 2008 goal will be met with or without overwhelming demand from enterprise customers.
The data on cell phone sales from which the 10 million figure was derived was from 2006. It is possible that the demand for cell phone could be less in 2008. Apple could see 1% of 2008 cell phone market with fewer than 10 million phones. So which is more important to Apple? Garnering 1% of the market or selling 10 million units? They keep using the same goals interchangeably, yet they aren’t measured the same way. I suspect that the 10 mil number is the more important, but a serious global recession could easily impact the size of the market this year.
Bernstein….Still doesn’t get it! sdk=business users, this in addition to new worldwide adoption of the iphone = $$$ = 10m iphones.
“…but that it won’t necessarily make the iPhone more attractive to enterprise users. ‘We note that many mobile enterprise applications likely to be available on the iPhone (such as Salesforce.com) are already available for other wireless devices,’ he wrote.”
The lack of logic is astounding. The iPhone WILL become far more attractive to corporate users with the addition of (even better) push email, etc. Just because some of that functionality may already be on other products (such as Blackberry) doesn’t mean that people won’t jump to the iPhone when it offers comparable or better functionality in those areas on top of its leading capabilities in web browsing, etc.
It is truly easy to be a doubter. But if you can’t justify your skepticism, then its just another unfounded opinion. And we all know what those are worth…
I’m personally offended that a miniscule amount of the money that I spend eventually feeds this guy’s paycheck.