Gartner, Inc. has highlighted 10 key predictions of events and developments that will affect IT and business in 2008 and beyond.
The predictions highlight areas where executives and IT professionals need to take action in 2008. The full impact of these trends may not appear this year, but executives need to act now so that they can exploit the trends for their competitive advantage.
“Selected from across our research areas as the most compelling and critical predictions, the trends and topics they address this year indicate a strong focus on individuals, the environment, and alternative ways of buying and selling IT services and technologies,” said Daryl Plummer, managing vice president and Gartner Fellow, in the press release. “These areas of focus imply a significant groundswell of change that may in turn change the entire industry.”
These predictions are selected from more than 100 predictions that Gartner presents and reviews every year. These predictions focus on general technology areas rather than on specific industries or roles. This year’s predictions include:
By 2011, Apple will double its U.S. and Western Europe unit market share in Computers. Apple’s gains in computer market share reflect as much on the failures of the rest of the industry as on Apple’s success. Apple is challenging its competitors with software integration that provides ease of use and flexibility; continuous and more frequent innovation in hardware and software; and an ecosystem that focuses on interoperability across multiple devices (such as iPod and iMac cross-selling).
By 2012, 50 per cent of traveling workers will leave their notebooks at home in favour of other devices. Even though notebooks continue to shrink in size and weight, traveling workers lament the weight and inconvenience of carrying them on their trips. Vendors are developing solutions to address these concerns: new classes of Internet-centric pocketable devices at the sub-$400 level; and server and Web-based applications that can be accessed from anywhere. There is also a new class of applications: portable personality that encapsulates a user’s preferred work environment, enabling the user to recreate that environment across multiple locations or systems.
By 2012, 80 per cent of all commercial software will include elements of open-source technology. Many open-source technologies are mature, stable and well supported. They provide significant opportunities for vendors and users to lower their total cost of ownership and increase returns on investment. Ignoring this will put companies at a serious competitive disadvantage. Embedded open source strategies will become the minimal level of investment that most large software vendors will find necessary to maintain competitive advantages during the next five years.
By 2012, at least one-third of business application software spending will be as service subscription instead of as product license. With software as service (SaaS), the user organisation pays for software services in proportion to use. This is fundamentally different from the fixed-price perpetual license of the traditional on-premises technology. Endorsed and promoted by all leading business applications vendors (Oracle, SAP, Microsoft) and many Web technology leaders (Google, Amazon), the SaaS model of deployment and distribution of software services will enjoy steady growth in mainstream use during the next five years.
By 2011, early technology adopters will forgo capital expenditures and instead purchase 40 per cent of their IT infrastructure as a service. Increased high-speed bandwidth makes it practical to locate infrastructure at other sites and still receive the same response times. Enterprises believe that as service oriented architecture (SOA) becomes common “cloud computing” will take off, thus untying applications from specific infrastructure. This trend to accepting commodity infrastructure could end the traditional “lock-in” with a single supplier and lower the costs of switching suppliers. It means that IT buyers should strengthen their purchasing and sourcing departments to evaluate offerings. They will have to develop and use new criteria for evaluation and selection and phase out traditional criteria.
By 2009, more than one third of IT organizations will have one or more environmental criteria in their top six buying criteria for IT-related goods. Initially, the motivation will come from the wish to contain costs. Enterprise data centres are struggling to keep pace with the increasing power requirements of their infrastructures. And there is substantial potential to improve the environmental footprint, throughout the life cycle, of all IT products and services without any significant trade-offs in price or performance. In future, IT organisations will shift their focus from the power efficiency of products to asking service providers about their measures to improve energy efficiency.
By 2010, 75 per cent of organisations will use full life cycle energy and CO2 footprint as mandatory PC hardware buying criteria. Most technology providers have little or no knowledge of the full life cycle energy and CO2 footprint of their products. Some technology providers have started the process of life cycle assessments, or at least were asking key suppliers about carbon and energy use in 2007 and will continue in 2008. Most others using such information to differentiate their products will start in 2009 and by 2010 enterprises will be able to start using the information as a basis for purchasing decisions. Most others will stat some level of more detailed life cycle assessment in 2008.
By 2011, suppliers to large global enterprises will need to prove their green credentials via an audited process to retain preferred supplier status. Those organizations with strong brands are helping to forge the first wave of green sourcing policies and initiatives. These policies go well beyond minimizing direct carbon emissions or requiring suppliers to comply with local environmental regulations. For example, Timberland has launched a “Green Index” environmental rating for its shoes and boots. Home Depot is working on evaluation and audit criteria for assessing supplier submissions for its new EcoOptions product line.
By 2010, end-user preferences will decide as much as half of all software, hardware and services acquisitions made by IT. The rise of the Internet and the ubiquity of the browser interface have made computing approachable and individuals are now making decisions about technology for personal and business use. Because of this, IT organizations are addressing user concerns through planning for a global class of computing that incorporates user decisions in risk analysis and innovation of business strategy.
Through 2011, the number of 3-D printers in homes and businesses will grow 100-fold over 2006 levels. The technology lets users send a file of a 3-D design to a printer-like device that will carve the design out of a block of resin. A manufacturer can make scale models of new product designs without the expense of model makers. Or consumers can have models of the avatars they use online. Ultimately, manufacturers can consider making some components on demand without having an inventory of replacement parts. Printers priced less than $10,000 have been announced for 2008, opening up the personal and hobbyist markets.
Source: Gartner, Inc.
First post hi hi hi…
Apple Fan Boys and Girls… Rejoice!!!
“By 2012, 50 per cent of traveling workers will leave their notebooks at home in favour of other devices.”
Translation: Welcome to the Mac Touch dominance
“By 2012, 80 per cent of all commercial software will include elements of open-source technology.”
Translation: Bye Bye Microsoft Monopoly
“By 2012, at least one-third of business application software spending will be as service subscription instead of as product license.”
Translation: Bill Gates comes back from retirement/charity works to save Microsoft from bankrupty… Steve Jobs retires with all the merits and devotes his time to politics as a Democrate.
Thumbs up to Macs doubling their market share! Thumbs down to all this overhyped, irrational web apps humbug. As long as the internet is not acccessible in every nook and granny of this planet, that thing just isn’t going to work.
But where’s that 10.5.2 update? Weeza needs it!
Oh yeah, and print your own 3D dildo
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“As long as the internet is not acccessible in every nook and granny of this planet…”
Well, to correct myself… I wouldn’t really like to see intertube-filled grandmas all over the world. Heh.
@Yours…
Not so smug anymore, eh?
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Stay away from granny. You’ll find crannies on the aisle with the english muffins.
Gartner?
I thought this was where I could get pictures of the new Garmin phone! Can’t wait for that puppy!
Anybody has any idea about their last predictions? How well does Gartner usually do?
And Barak Obama will be campaigning for a second term.
Hey, anyone see “House” on TV a couple of nights ago? He was using a MacBook Pro (close up and undisguised) and made a big deal about receiving an iPhone as gift (while holding it up for a great close up). I wonder if Apple pays for the product placement. I’ve got to think so, but it is just possible that the writers and producers of the show are mad Apple fans.
If you believe this, you are truly without any common sense at all. But, come to think of it, Steve has always counted on his sheep to be totally unable to think for themselves.
Many people start to understand that there is NO reason to buy any other computer than a Mac…
I believe that Apple will double its market share in the U.S. and Europe by the end of 2009 and at the latest mid 2010.
The writing’s on the wall.
$10,000 for a 3d printer is hardly a “hobby”.
Oh, and go Apple!
My granny constantly had to be reloaded. And don’t get me started on her plug-ins. What a pain.
By 2013, a desperate and drenched Steve Ballmer will go on a shooting rampage that will cover most of the western U.S. Thousands of angry villagers will track him night and day. A trail of splinters will provide vital clues. Thirty-seven shots of horse tranquilizers and a well-timed wrecking ball will finally bring him down. His last words will be “Apple has no chance of gaining market share. No chance. NO CHAnce . . .”
@spark
You betcha Apple pays for product placement.
When they don’t pay you see the Apple covered up.
From one of my favorite episodes of Pinky and The Brain:
Pinky: “Macintosh? Isn’t that a kind of computer?”
The Brain: “Not unless they pay for advertising.”
2012
http://survive2012.com/
what will happen in 2012?
According to their calendar, the Maya believed that their world would end on Dec 21, 2012. Of all the dates put forth by prophets and cultures for a doomsday, this is one with an authentic almost eerie feel to it. But what will happen? A global cataclysm is one possibility.
————————–
According to The X-Files, on 22 December 2012, aliens will invade and take over the world. 23 December 2012 is the day the ancient Mayan calendar will end.
STOCKPILE FOOD AND AMMO NOW!
@Spark
Yes, but he was using MacOS 10.2 as the OS – possibly because the “Mac OS X” moniker on the login screen is far larger on that screen than on Tiger or Leopard.
And the iPhone belonged to Wilson, which makes sense – Wilson is a reasonable person, House is a curmudgeon.
Well, here’s something Apple can do that Microsoft can’t. Poor Microsoft can’t double 95%.
This is hilarious and preposterous at the same time. There won’t be an Apple in 2010.
Outlook Calendar’d. Dorks.
Your potential. Our passion.™
@amex
‘Anybody has any idea about their last predictions? How well does Gartner usually do?’
The previous Gartner prediction reported by MDN was this:
“Gartner predicts up to 400,000 holiday iPhone sales in the UK”
http://macdailynews.com/index.php/weblog/comments/15402/
[…] Parker reports, “Some analysts said the 200,000 sales projection was conservative. Carolina Milanesi, analyst at Gartner, a consultancy, said between 350,000 and 400,000 iPhones could be sold in the first two months. […]
So they predict quite ok, give or take 50%.
On the subject of product placement, Apple is the passive one here. In general, the producers of shows/movies approach Apple whenever they have the products as props/sets and pay nominal rate. Unlike other makers, where salesforce courts Hollywood for placement and offers big money, Apple practically only collects royalties. There is hardly any prime time show or big budget movie where the protagonist(s) don’t use MB, MB pro or iMacs. They are literally everywhere, and of course, references in dialogue are even more prevalent. The only time a character uses an obviously non-Apple notebook or desktop is when the character is the antagonist (i.e. the bad guy), or some teen hacker or dork.
Apple doesn’t need to do anything here. Their products find their way into TV shows, Pottery Barn catalogues, big budget movies, advertising for retirement investment firms, because their appearance is superb and they perfectly blend with and complement any setting.
“Endorsed and promoted by all leading business applications vendors (Oracle, SAP, Microsoft) and many Web technology leaders (Google, Amazon), the SaaS model of deployment and distribution of software services will enjoy steady growth in mainstream use during the next five years”
Thin computing refuses to die! It’s been a dream of IT and companies like MS since personal computers ushered in the long, slow death of the mainframe. It’s perfect for them: the customer pays for the hardware and rents the software. Just like subscription music, it’s a bad idea for customers. Movies are for renting. Music and software get played/used repeatedly and are to be owned. Renting them will always be a rip off.
Apple ain’t going to do SHIT!!!
Because MDN is a bunch of fsckers and I got a right mind to come VISIT THEIR SORRY ASSES IN NEW YORK STATE.
Oh Yes MDN, housed up in the LOWEST TAX COUNTY IN THE STATE.
I know YOU!!
But since it’s too damm cold up there my anger will most likely subside before I even get there.
But I’ll look you up this summer, and then I’ll host a web page that tells everything about your sorry asses.
See how you like deleting posts for no reason then.
FUCKTWADS!!!
Brittany, aren’t you supposed to be under observation?
@thelonius mac
actually, in the Mayan calendar, 2012 denotes the beginning of the age of enlightenment, not the end of all time. Google it, yo.
And yeah, $10,000 dollars for a 3-d printer is kind of like $10,000 for a big-ass table. Why would I?