“Apple CEO Steve Jobs will need to work some magic to hit his sales target of 10 million iPhones this year,” Priya Ganapati reports for TheStreet.com. “Since the iPhone’s launch in June, Apple has sold about 4 million devices, including 2.3 million during the important holiday season.”
“To reach the 10 million mark, it needs to average 2.5 million phones in sales a quarter over the next four quarters — or 200,000 more than what it sold during the big holiday season,” Ganapati reports.
“Some analysts say Apple will have to cut deals with more phone carriers outside the U.S., upgrade the iPhone and most importantly, drop the price in order to reach its ambitious sales target,” Ganapati reports.
MacDailyNews Take: So, the genius analysts predict that Apple will have to do exactly as Apple has planned and operate exactly as Apple has historically with iPod. Thanks for the incisive analysis, guys and gals.
Ganapati continues, “A price cut is a possibility, agrees Mike Abramsky, an analyst with RBC Capital. But what’s more likely to happen, he says, is that Apple will upgrade the software in the existing iPhone and offer new models, including the much-awaited 3G version of the phone.”
“Despite investor fears, Apple’s iPhone sales have been solid, says Abramsky. iPhone sales in the quarter ended Dec. 30 were up 107% from the previous quarter, while the smart-phone industry is estimated to have grown at 13% to 15%,” Ganapati reports. “‘The 4 million phones sold in the first six months is also double the initial run rate of the Motorola Razr,’ says Abramsky. ‘From our perspective, the early performance of the iPhone is nothing short of remarkable relative to other historic phone launches.'”
Full article, which is inexplicably headlined “Apple’s iPhone Elixir: Cut Prices,” along with a bunch of nonsense about supposed investor “concerns” over normal iPhone inventory levels (see: the ginned-up “missing iPhones” malarky) here.
[Thanks to MacDailyNews Reader “Linux Guy And Mac Prodigal Son” for the heads up.]
Those analysts may not be brilliant at math, but they remember the 2007 MacWorld keynote correctly, unlike some of the readers here. Steve Jobs said the goal is to sell 10 million units IN calendar year 2008 (NOT by the end of 2008 starting June 2007). The 4 million sold in 2007 DO NOT count toward that 10 million goal.
I think Apple can reach that goal. About mid-year, Apple will probably release updated and new iPhone models. That will increase sales. And releasing iPhone in new markets will also increase sales. So the numbers by quarter will probably go something like (in millions).
1.5 + 2 + 2.5 + 4 = 10
So did I do the math right?
@Bob R., John, Spark, Randian etc
The goal at least used to be selling 10 million iPhones in calendar year 2008.
Since the Julian calendar reform in 45 BC, each calendar year consists of 12 months. No more, no less.
http://www.macdailynews.com/index.php/weblog/comments/apple_sells_one_million_iphones_in_74_days/
…
MacDailyNews Take: Apple has hit the first of their two publicly-stated goals: 1 million iPhones sold by the end of September 2007 (21 days early). Apple also has a goal (however laughably conservative it may be) of selling 10 million iPhones in calendar 2008.
Apple CEO Steve Jobs said in his Macworld Expo 2007 keynote address that Apple would set the goal of selling 10 million iPhone units in 2008, the first full year on the market. (Macworld Expo 2007 iPhone Introduction: Jobs’ remarks on iPhone goals begin at 1:15:52 into the QuickTime video). On July 25, 2007, during Apple’s conference call discussing Q3 – 2007 financial results, Apple CFO Peter Oppenheimer reiterated Apple’s goal of selling 10 million iPhone units in “calendar 2008.” (Apple’s Q3 07 Apple Quarterly Results Call: Oppenheimer’s remarks on iPhone goals begin at 6:05 into the QuickTime audio stream).
hey Old Mac Man, you forgot to bitch about glossy screens……
first person i can ever remember actually making me want to type STFU.
People people, read the relevant article MDN is refering to before beaaatching
” width=”19″ height=”19″ alt=”wink” style=”border:0;” />
Says in the TheStreet:
“The sales target of 10 million iPhones generated much discussion. Asked later by an analyst during the company’s first-quarter fiscal whether Jobs was referring to calendar year 2008 or fiscal 2008 (which for the company started October 2007), Apple COO Tim Cook replied, “Calendar year ’08 is what Steve referenced in his keynote.”
“The point that he made was that the worldwide market for total cell phones is somewhere around 1 billion and our objective of getting 1% of it would yield 10 million units across the calendar year,” Cook told analysts on the call.
I’m sick of this 3G crap. SJ said it’s a battery hog. I like my current battery life. Plus, the simple fact… WI-FI IS FASTER THAN 3G!!!
The iPhone is, in fact, right up against my ‘snuff.
Even 10 million units in CY2008 is not much of a stretch. Based on a 27% growth and the assumption that the iPhone is still following a typical rate of growth we get
CY2008Q1 = 1.8 million
CY2008Q2 = 2.3 million
CY2008Q3 = 2.9 million
CY2008Q4 = 3.7 million
—————————–
Total = 10.7 million
without any seasonal adjustments. If Apple gets the same 80% bonus during CY2008Q4 as they saw in CY2007Q4, you can add another 2.3 million units.
You can question the 27% growth rate, but that is what Apple is currently seeing based on January 2008 rate of 140,000 units per week that Jobs implied at MWSF.
Cool article, especially neat to look at years later when you look at what the iPhone has accomplished.
http://www.PhoneFreelancer.com