Analyst: Apple iPhone sales are nothing short of remarkable

“Apple CEO Steve Jobs will need to work some magic to hit his sales target of 10 million iPhones this year,” Priya Ganapati reports for TheStreet.com. “Since the iPhone’s launch in June, Apple has sold about 4 million devices, including 2.3 million during the important holiday season.”

“To reach the 10 million mark, it needs to average 2.5 million phones in sales a quarter over the next four quarters — or 200,000 more than what it sold during the big holiday season,” Ganapati reports.

“Some analysts say Apple will have to cut deals with more phone carriers outside the U.S., upgrade the iPhone and most importantly, drop the price in order to reach its ambitious sales target,” Ganapati reports.

MacDailyNews Take: So, the genius analysts predict that Apple will have to do exactly as Apple has planned and operate exactly as Apple has historically with iPod. Thanks for the incisive analysis, guys and gals.

Ganapati continues, “A price cut is a possibility, agrees Mike Abramsky, an analyst with RBC Capital. But what’s more likely to happen, he says, is that Apple will upgrade the software in the existing iPhone and offer new models, including the much-awaited 3G version of the phone.”

“Despite investor fears, Apple’s iPhone sales have been solid, says Abramsky. iPhone sales in the quarter ended Dec. 30 were up 107% from the previous quarter, while the smart-phone industry is estimated to have grown at 13% to 15%,” Ganapati reports. “‘The 4 million phones sold in the first six months is also double the initial run rate of the Motorola Razr,’ says Abramsky. ‘From our perspective, the early performance of the iPhone is nothing short of remarkable relative to other historic phone launches.'”

Full article, which is inexplicably headlined “Apple’s iPhone Elixir: Cut Prices,” along with a bunch of nonsense about supposed investor “concerns” over normal iPhone inventory levels (see: the ginned-up “missing iPhones” malarky) here.

[Thanks to MacDailyNews Reader “Linux Guy And Mac Prodigal Son” for the heads up.]

33 Comments

  1. Hey MDN, where did you get the headline “Analyst: Apple iPhone sales are nothing short of remarkable” from the article???
    The author never says that.
    He says: “Apple’s iPhone sales have been solid”
    That is not remarkable.
    In fact, the entire article is very cautionary about Apple iPhone sales, not glowing and no words of “nothing short of remarkable” as you try to spin it.

  2. “To reach the 10 million mark, it needs to average 2.5 million phones in sales a quarter over the next four quarters”

    Aahhh isn’t that 10 Mil. alone? What about the 4 Mil. they already sold? By my math they need to sell 6 Mil. more or 1.5 Mil. a quarter for the next four quarters. Am I missing something here or did someone forget to add…

  3. I don’t think I would put my money on this guy. He states that 4 million have been sold, then he says to reach 10 million, Apple needs to sell 2.5 million per quarter for the next 4 quarters… by my math this adds to 14 million phones sold. In reality Apple needs to sell 6 million more phones or 1.5 million per quarter which is well under the current run rate. This also assumes that Apple does not update the phone, add new models, change pricing, add additional conutries (Canada please), ….

  4. I hope they introduce new higher-featured models at the same high price, but reduce the existing-feature model’s prices. This works well with Macs.

    Changing the Nano to the small size, but touch screen would make sense if they can keep the price down and still make coloured versions.

    The iPods need a refresh since most people already have a model of at least one of the past 2 generations. WiFi & SDK apps in the Nano seem to be the next big thing – maybe using the new Intel chips and Touch/iPhone OS.

    I would like KeyNote (presentation only, not editing) in the Touch/iPhone to limit my need to carry a laptop.

    Missing iPhones: an MDN ad above (in the UK) offers to hack your iPhone for £9.95 to use any SIM. In my shopping centre iPhones are available from 4 of the 10 phone shops in a row. The UK sales of hacked phones must be huge, despite having O2.

  5. You have to wonder if analysts can read. Apple claimed that it would sell 10 million phones in 18 months. It has sold 3.7 million phones in 6 months. By my calculations that leaves only 6.3 million phones to be sold in the next 12 months (2008) to reach a goal that analysts originally claimed as ambitious. By my calculations that works out to less than an average of 1.6 million iPhones per quarter.

    If one assumes that the iPhone follows the rest of Apple’s line and will sell at 75% of the holiday rate this quarter, the rate for this quarter should be like 1.7 million iPhones per quarter. So even with no growth, Apple should have no problems (which I believe was the statement by Apple executives in the conference call). Another way to look at it might be to take the 300,000 iPhones in the first two weeks before MWSF as representative of this quarter. That number translates into 1.8 million iPhones per quarter, which is even better for Apple.

    OTOH, if Apple “stuffed the channel” to get to the 4 million number in time for MWSF, actual sales to customers might be closer to the 1.6 million number that was the first projection.

  6. @Larry the Lawyer & Old Mac Man

    “‘The 4 million phones sold in the first six months is also double the initial run rate of the Motorola Razr,’ says Abramsky. ‘From our perspective, the early performance of the iPhone is nothing short of remarkable relative to other historic phone launches.'”

    If you learn how to read very closely you will see in this abbreviated article near the bottom the above quotes. Since it is not fine print, I can understand Larry missing it. Old man must just be old. Stupid is as stupid does! There is also a link if you want to read the whole article

  7. “Come on Steve, you know the first version is not quite up to snuff.”

    Um, obviously you don’t have one. I’ve got one. I know a lot of people who have one and every one who does loves it. Loves.

    L.O.V.E.S. it.

    What’s not up to ‘snuff’?

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