If history holds true, profit taking in Apple stock will soon exhaust itself

“While the Street frets about slowing iPod sales (or how everyone on earth might already have one), it’s easy to forget Apple’s range. Mac revenues grew 47% last quarter. Unit sales are expected to increase at a pace more than double the industry’s 11.6%, and Apple continues to gain share in the computer and phone markets,” Dow Jones Newswires reports.

MacDailyNews Take: Anyone who frets that everyone on earth might already have an iPod has severe math issues, at the very least. If they’re working on Wall Street — well, actually, that would explain a lot. Apple has sold a total of 140 million iPods to date. There are currently over 6.7 billion people on earth. Over 300 million are in the U.S. alone. The fact is: 2.1% of the world has an Apple iPod (it’s actually even less that that as many iPod owners have purchased more than one iPod). Let’s say that 750 million of the 6.7 billion people on earth can afford an iPod and have the infrastructure available to support such a device: that’s still only 18.7% market saturation.

Dow Jones Newswires continues, “Investors moaning about the four million iPhones sold so far forget that Apple had no mobile-phone presence just a year ago. Margins near 35% should improve with cheaper component prices, and Apple is rolling out its new operating system and iPhones overseas. In fact, Apple’s knack for packaging aspiration and creating things people feel compelled to own will stand it in good stead in a spending slowdown.”

“The new ‘MacBook Air,’ for instance, has inspired lust among existing laptop owners, and the buzz among young media types means consumer magazines will pant after it in print for months to come. If history holds true, profit taking in Apple will exhaust itself about 21 days after the earnings report (as was the case last year),” Dow Jones Newswires reports. “Last week, Citigroup analyst Richard Gardner called the selloff “overdone.” Deutsche Bank analyst Chris Whitmore has a 225 price target that is 73% higher than where shares trade today.”

Full article here.

[Thanks to MacDailyNews Reader “Jim” for the heads up.]

48 Comments

  1. Apple continues to improve its market position, introduce and succeed with important and elegant products and continually exceed earnings expectations. The low ball guidance this past week should deter no investor. The panic that has overtaken the market is badly placed when it comes to Apple. People seem to have overlooked the prospective dominance and prominence that Apple is gaining in the tech space if not globally amongst large well respected companies.

  2. and then there is the potential for a completely derailed economy that cannot gain traction, completely falters and leaves apple stock in the dust, in spite of Apples phenomenal success…

    are we doomed yet?

  3. Don’t quote anything from HISTORY..
    HISTORY is saying we should have a huge run-up from the new year to the MacWorld conference, which didn’t happened.

    When you see press like this, analysis are trying to push some good news in order to unload their shares.

    If you see ipod sales are slowing down, that’s a warning sign. Also, look at their new product, only Macbook Air is worth talking about. Seriously, I was planning to upgrade my Macbook, but after looking at Macbook Air, I am not going to do so. iPhone is getting old, and might not have that spark anymore.
    If you go to Japan, China, and India, people are already using UNLOCKED iphone few months ago!

    Those are my comments only.

  4. Or as another way of looking at it, the economic worries, general stock market decline, and investors getting nervous about sitting on the peak of nearly $200 a share probably would have found a cloud in any silver lining at the Expo.

    Frankly, short of producing the Second Coming in a saleable form, I’m not sure anything could have prevented a sell-off in today’s market.

    The Macbook Air is significant because it’s a NEW niche. The iPod Touch is a NEW market beyond traditional iPods. The addition of rentals to the Apple TV, iTunes, iPod & iPhone is a NEW (and huge, in my opinion) long-term win. Time Capsule is a NEW niche for Apple.

    Do you see a pattern here? This was not the Jobs keynote of 2 or 3 years ago, where “ho-hum” we’d show off an iLife or an iWork update. Preview the next update of the OS. This was a keynote full of EXPANDING the market for Apple. The Apple TV now has a serious chance of becoming a big seller. The iPod Touch, only a few months old, now has a SIGNIFICANTLY improved feature set. And Apple has entered new markets to compete in.

    This is all good news, even if it’s not a blockbuster surprise announcement like the Apple Car or something. And all of these markets should have tremendous growth potential.

    At first, I thought it was just a so-so keynote, but the more I look at what is happening, the more I see the plans unfolding. Apple cannot (obviously) continue unlimited vertical growth in any one market. The iPod is maturing, so Apple changes the game. The online stores are getting more competitive, so Apple changes the game (again). The laptop market is exploding, so Apple introduces a third line to its already blockbuster mix.

    I think Apple is greatly positioned, and I only wish I had about a million dollars to pour into stock at $130 now.

  5. Wait a big fat minute. iPod sales have not slowed at all. What has slowed is the rate of increase in sales. They still sold more this quarter than they ever have, so you can’t call that a slowdown.

  6. If any one of the “know-it-all” commentators had something worth listening to, they would be off making money rather than spouting off such pap.

    I have made tens of thousands from trading this stock over the past few years. I thought I had a great handle on things. Then…

    I have lost over $100,000 in the last few weeks. So much for experience. Get lucky or get out. The performance of the company has 5% to do with the performance of the stock in the short term, and 95% to do with it in the long term.

    If someone says they have it figured out, turn around and run. They don’t.

  7. @Jack:

    “Don’t quote anything from HISTORY.. ” ABSOLUTELY. Apple makes history so anyone quoting it is looking in the rear view mirror. ” width=”19″ height=”19″ alt=”grin” style=”border:0;” />

    “When you see press like this, analysis are trying to push some good news in order to unload their shares.” Then maybe you should buy Microsoft . ” width=”19″ height=”19″ alt=”grin” style=”border:0;” />

    “If you see ipod sales are slowing down, that’s a warning sign.” —- FUD FUD Alert This is either proof of fud or just lack of understanding.

    People, Apple sales of iPod increase. The “RATE” of increase is acceleration. We do not want run away acceleration of iPod sales, just constant steady GREAT sales numbers. Use what little brain power one might have. 140 million units sold. — And how many Zunes have sold.?????

    PS. one more small note (even thou I told my self that I would not do this for a while 🙁 ) Please remember that EVERY iPod sold is one less Zune or Creative or Sony music player sold. So, given 22 million iPods sold recently, just how many other players do you think sold???? And how many will they be able to sell, given that they can only sell one “other” music player for every 4 iPods. !!!!!!!!!

    Apple still rocks big time. ” width=”19″ height=”19″ alt=”grin” style=”border:0;” />

    “…… Seriously, I was planning to upgrade my ……….. I am not going to do so. iPhone is getting old, and might not have that spark anymore. ” ——– LOL LOL LOL

    Actually I was going to buy 1000 ( ” width=”19″ height=”19″ alt=”grin” style=”border:0;” /> )or so Dells cause they are so great, but given the fantabulous (is there really such a word) new MBA, why, of course, I will have to buy those instead.

    Hmmm, maybe I should go over to a Dell or MS site and post that. ” width=”19″ height=”19″ alt=”grin” style=”border:0;” />

    You know, I feel better already.

    “Those are my comments only.” — and given my desire to read real information rather than FUD, I guess that makes me feel better.

    PS. the above was written with fun in mind. ( well mostly !) Every one should buy the hardware and use the software that they choose. I am just so glad that there is an Apple hardware and software for me to choose. ” width=”19″ height=”19″ alt=”grin” style=”border:0;” />

    en

  8. I have lost over $100,000 in the last few weeks.

    I think you were warned Apple was going to tank with the rest of the US stock market. Post real estate bubble recession.

    *scratches ass*

    *calls broker to sell gold and platinum at 300% profit*

    *pinches Frenchies sweet laptop*

  9. Wait a big fat minute. iPod sales have not slowed at all. What has slowed is the rate of increase in sales.

    Correct. And Wall Street, right or wrong, is reading it as a portend of flattening sales in the future.

    Remember, whatever anyone does is never good enough for The Street. Heh if Apple had 200% iPod sales growth last quarter and forecast “only” 198% growth for the next, AAPL would still get hammered!

    If history holds true, whatever Apple stock does next will be a surprise to everyone.

  10. I’m starting to believe that The Street is the same as blood sucking lawyers. Peoples lives, hopes and financial futures are changed drastically by people who only care about putting money in their pockets. They twist the truth, leave out facts, lie and manipulate facts to benefit themselves.

    After hearing Cramer talk about how they start false rumors, and watch the stock tank even though most experts say hold I find myself despising The Street.

    Now on the radio there are commercials about Oil energy manipulation and the Enron Loophole.

    Why can’t there be laws in place to prevent this?

    I feel like I’m living the movie “Boiler Room”

  11. Not to me. Apple will rise to about 145-150 range and then tank. This will happen between now and March. Bottom below 120, may go as far down as 100. Will not rise above 125 after that until next year. Maybe June 09.

  12. Wow, people are bored with the iPhone already?!? Are they nuts? Don’t they realize the iPhone can be constantly renewed with new apps? Did they download v1.1.3? I’ve got a whole 2nd page of webclips now. I use the web twice as much as a month ago. The iPhone SDK is coming soon. People don’t get it, until Apple steamrolls them.

  13. @Jack – what about the new Mac Pro eight core machines? And the luster has not worn off of the iMac 20″ & 24″, iPhone, iPod touch, iPod nano, or Leopard. In addition, the Apple TV plus movie rental iTunes service is essentially a new product.

    The Air is but the latest release in a string of great ideas/products. The sky is not falling, it’s supported by Air and a lot of ground beneath it.

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