AAPL: Cashing in on the Steve Jobs’ Macworld Expo keynote effect

“The buzz among Apple (AAPL) traders today is a thought experiment that Matt Haughey worked up at A Whole Lotta Nothing,” Philip Elmer-DeWitt blogs for Fortune.

Haughey writes:
A few months ago I was thinking about Apple’s rise in value after the iPhone and how Steve Jobs does a great keynote every year, and naturally I thought “I wonder if there’s a way to make money off quick investments around the keynotes?” Then I thought “What if you did this every year, for just a day or two of investment?”

Elmer-DeWitt writes, “Haughey worked the numbers and the result is the chart above, which he calls the Keynote Index Fund. His conclusion: if you had invested in his hypothetical fund for the past two years, you would have realized a healthy 7.3% profit over 24 hours and 11.9% over 48 hours. The longer term results are not quite so impressive. Over the past decade, the fund gained 1.2% over 24 hours and 2.2% over 48.”

Full article, with links and chart, here.

9 Comments

  1. Forget the keynote…you never know whether it will go up or down…focus on the January 22nd numbers…if they are good, the next morning your AAPL should really jump…at least until after lunch. Fact…the daytraders are gonna take some profit…the longtermers should see some increase still after the fact. RIMM was way up the next day after their results were reported, and they really have several versions of only ONE product.

  2. MDN’s new years resolution…simply make the content text on their page load BEFORE the ads and external links.
    Pleeeeaaaassseee! How hard can it be? Even Macsurfer’s huge content loads nearly as fast as the Google start page…and we all know how smart that move was.

  3. Buy for the long term and you will be safe and profitable. The sort of predictions made by analysts are meant to generate volatility and whip saw you out of your AAPL holdings at low prices.

    The Wall Street firms are mostly a bunch of crooks feeding off the too clever by half part time day traders who read a few books on trading and think they are now experts. Unless you are really one of the best — few of those exist — you will likely be taken to the cleaners.

  4. My recent experience is that the stock inches up before the meeting and then drops rather heavily immediately after. Nothing’s predictable but, the recent experience is that the selling opportunity was immediately before the meeting and the next great buying opportunity was several days after.
    Of course, it’s also my experience that soon as the market appears to become predictable, it drastically changes so, you’re on your own.

  5. I call it occasional trader. It has worked for me. I got out of the market six months ago because there was a bad smell to events. Got back two months ago and started my own disciplined occasional trading technique. Did 36% in two months. Was up over 45% but in moment of undisciplined weakness droped the 9 %.
    I still don’t hold more than 2-3 stocks at a time and never more than a week. Apple is the only exception.
    I plan to stick to my method this 2008 and plan to make easily 50% or better. Wish me luck!

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