“For Apple fans, the wishing doesn’t end with the holiday season. They keep their fingers crossed until January, when Chief Executive Steve Jobs will deliver a keynote speech at the San Francisco Macworld Conference–filled with never-before-heard details about the company’s product lineup,” Rachel Rosmarin reports for Forbes in an article headlined, “What Steve Jobs Will Unveil At Macworld.”
“The tradition of pre-Macworld speculation and wishful thinking is inevitable, says Blackfriars co-founder and Principal Analyst Carl Howe, because Apple does nothing to guide expectations. “Unlike most of the tech world, Apple doesn’t provide road maps. They’re quite famously secretive, and that encourages speculation,” he says. Howe estimates that the frenzied buzz generated by Apple fans about the company’s next move equates to nearly $700 million in free marketing each year,” Rosmarin reports.
Rosmarin asks, “So what’s on an Apple fan’s most-cherished list this year?”
Rosmarin answers with possibilities:
• The Sub-Notebook
• The Tablet
• More iPhones
• iTunes Store Content Surprise
• Games, Cars, TVs
Rosmarin reports, “As a company with limited research and development resources, Apple can’t repeatedly jump into new markets, argues Creative Strategies analyst Tim Bajarin. In just a few short years, the company has revamped its line of desktops and laptops, entered the media player market and the music sales business and just styled itself as a phone company. ‘Over the next couple of years, I think Apple’s going to be reluctant to break new ground at the hardware level, unless they come up with something earth-shattering,’ says Bajarin. ‘And I don’t see where that could come from.'”
MacDailyNews Take: Which is why you’re an analyst, Tim, and not running or working for an innovative company like Apple. Apple has $15.4 billion and no debt. That rapidly-growing pile of cash is larger than IBM’s, Hewlett-Packard’s, Intel’s, and Google’s. So much for “limited research and development resources.”
Full article here.
I am err… well, not sure what I am really.
Oh yes, I’m a stupid, time-wasting, twit is what I am.
I will find a real occupation soon and leave MDN and its contributors alone. One day.
More possibilities:
• a drool-proof clothing line
• chewing gum with even longer lasting flavor
• a small ass table
• announcement of OS X 10.6 Grimalkin
• a cube shaped mouse
• an Apple Store in East Timor
• a patented cure for Alternaria mali
• a Keynote presentation of Phil Schiller’s vacation in Vermont
• directions to Jobs’ home planet Malus in the galaxy of Rosaceae
• the return of the Performa but now in translucent colors
• the company picnic and softball tournament sign-up sheet
• free form jamming for an hour with Jonathan Ive, lead guitar and vocals, Tony Fadell, rhythm guitar and vocals, Ron Johnson, castanets, Sina Tamaddon, bass and Bertrand Serlet, drums. Shine on, you crazy diamonds.
i think the cars reference was about a rumor that they were going to buy out a website.
From the article:
“True Apple devotees would like to see all manner of consumer products slapped with an Apple sticker. A 2007 rumor that the company was in talks with executives at Volkswagen (other-otc: VLKAF.PK – news – people ) had some people yearning for a Mac-integrated Jetta or Passat. More likely than a branded “iCar” is a continued effort from Apple to get iPod docks integrated into as many luxury vehicles as possible.”
Slapped with an Apple sticker? Tim was having a bad day.
“…unless they come up with something earth-shattering,’ says Bajarin. ‘And I don’t see where that could come from.'”
THAT is the cutting edge beauty and mystique of Apple–no one sees it coming! Innovative products just magically appear on stage.
Like the colored iMacs, then iPod, etc… You never saw them coming either. And if Apples R&D;is limited as this guy says, then obviously, once again, size doesn’t matter—it’s what you do with it.
I’m giving Apple one last opportunity to introduce the pro-sumer Mac, aka the Missing Mac. Something between the Mini and the Pro. Integrated, expandable, supporting full size drives, no display. Some have denigrated the notion, others agree that such a box, priced at say $999, would sell like hotcakes.
I can’t imagine it’s that hard to do. Take a small form factor Shuttle, trim its height to reflect the use of Apple’s slot loading optical drive. All one needs is an Apple motherboard. Come on Steve, it’s a no brainer!
“MacDailyNews Take: Which is why you’re an analyst, Tim, and not running or working for an innovative company like Apple.”
LOL – Don’t ya just love it?
I’m getting really sick & tired of those analysts….
MacDailyNews: the only website that makes Islamic extremists look thick-skinned and well-balanced.
Seriously, when you start taking childish swipes at Tim Bajarin – who has been providing intelligent, literate, coherent analysis of Apple as a company for two decades – you make yourself look incredibly pompous.
Ferchrissake, you don’t have to respond to every piece of news that mentions Apple in a way that blows the story out of all proportion.
I’m hoping Steve gives us professionals a few more choice besides processor speed. Please give us an option of a smaller Mac Pro. Room for lots of RAM, slot for Graphics card, a couple of bus slots, may two hard drives instead of four, and connection for external SATA.
Apple doesn’t just pump out products that we don’t know we need. Apple has always focussed their product strategies based on consumer desire/need and the ability to provide that product as a clear market leader. IE: When people demanded an iPhone, Apple delivered because the market was rife for improvement and everyone wanted one. Those who called for a return of the Newton/PDA were served by the iPhone, as well as iPod enthusiasts.
The only missing piece right now, in terms of Mac desirability, is a true Media Center solution that eclipses the AppleTV yet is easier to use than a Mac Mini and has the potential to make profit while giving Apple a lead other makers will be hard pressed to follow due to the disparity between manufacturers and their reliance on Windoze. Apple could do this if they could figure out a way to bring the widescreen living room TV into the equation as an internet capable communication and video download portal. As it is right now, no TV maker can make a TV that can interface seamlessly without the use of complicated third party boxes/cabling (including the AppleTV) which means Apple could blow open a new market segment by introducing a full blown Apple branded TV that is integrally linked to your Mac.
…. just putting it out there…
What happened to the voice of sanity at MDN? Childishness rules in the commentary of late. Having a pile of cash does not translate to development resources: not too long ago, Apple was forced to delay Leopard in order to reallocate development resources to iPhone. No amount of cash translates to experienced developers…
MDN – fire your commentator and hire an adult. Its overdue.
Most journalist and analyst have a disease that causes them to over estimate their self importance, MDN’s take is spot on. Few if any of them have 15 billion in cash, if they did they wouldn’t be writing stupid articles so Mac heads like me could go on rants about how stupid they are. I like a good rant now and then, so thanks Tim for being a dumb ass analyst
excuse me Ampar, that’s Big Assed Table that doesn’t Work yet!
MDN Magic Word = Perform, as in what the table Doesn’t !
I want Apple to come out with an iCondom so I play with the new MS touch thingie safely.
My Two Cents:
iPhone: the 3G might be a few months off, but to quote Major TJ “King” Kong, Steve will find SOME way to goose the iPhone “if it harelips ever’body on Bear Creek.”
Games? Meh.
Cars? Please.
iTunes movie rentals: a natural progression, assuming the paranoia of Big Media can be overcome. Fox is rumored to be poised to expand their video offerings to movies as well as TV shows — this would be a good time to make a big splash.
AppleTV: a nice product hobbled by content companies’ unwillingness to play the game with Apple. Disney/Fox on-demand movie rentals could be the Killer App that would finally jump-start AppleTV sales. Steve knows that being hooked up to the plasma in your living room is a real opportunity. He’ll find a way to do it eventually.
Subnotebook/Tablet: we won’t see both. But what about a subnote with a rotating touchscreen that could also function as a tablet? Yeah, the swivel-screen thing been done — but Apple would finally do it right.
To John Travitzky:
True. But it’s so frickin’ shiny!
“If you can’t make it good, at least make it look good.”
– Bill Gates
Amazing. The zealots are jizzing their pants because MDN’s flame-baiting editors take issue with Tim Bajarin’s words of caution. For the benefit of all you know-nothings bashing the man, Bajarin is just about the MOST respectable and accurate Apple-watcher out there.
MDN has jumped the shark as far as I’m concerned. What happened to the adults in charge? Bring them back, because you guys SUCK.
i think the cars reference was about a rumor that they were going to buy out a website.
Cars??????
Look out GM, Ford, etc.!!!!!!!!!!!
Actually, I think the cars reference was in response to rumors that Apple and VW are working on an in-car media management system — something like a rival to Sync (by MS and Ford).
How nice would that be? Now your car stereo is as easy to use as your iPod. The steering wheel becomes a giant click wheel…
Apple has $15.4 billion and no debt. That rapidly-growing pile of cash is larger than IBM’s, Hewlett-Packard’s, Intel’s, and Google’s. So much for “limited research and development resources.”
Nice try, MDN. According to Booz, Allen, and Hamilton’s Smart Spenders report (they keep track of R&D;spending of various companies and determine which get the best bang-for-the-buck), Apple spent $0.534B (that’s $534 million) on R&D;in 2005, which was the last year figures were available.
IBM spent $5.842B — 1094% more than Apple.
Intel spent 5.145B — 963% more than Apple.
Samsung (a consumer electronics company, and one that should be somewhat more comparable to Apple than IBM or Intel) spent $5.428B, or 1016% more than Apple.
Microsoft (an OS/Software company that, again, should be somewhat more comparable to Apple than IBM or Intel) spent $6.184B, or 1158% more than Apple. Sadly, it seems that most of the money has been wasted in this case.
In comparison to the heavy hitters, Apple does indeed have “limited research and development resources.” While Apple may get more benefit from each R&D;dollar they spend than much of their competition, the author is undoubtedly correct that Apple’s R&D;resources are limited.
Oops.
Every time I wrote “more than Apple” in that last post, I should have said “of Apple’s expenditures.” To say that IBM, for example, spent 1094% more than Apple would mean that IBM spent $5.842B in addition to Apple’s $0.534B.
Looks to me like Apple knows how to use their R&D;dollars a little more wisely than those other outfits.
‘ ; ‘ what the …
The dollar amount spent on R&D;isn’t linear, when comparing various companies.
Some companies work smart. Others work hard.
Just as market cap doesn’t equate to profitability.
> ‘And I don’t see where that could come from.’
Admitting to being clueless is the first sign that you’re coming to grips with the problem: Absent Topic Syndrome.
Stick with the formula:
PLAN A:
So far, [<u>…insert beleaguered company here…</u>] has struggled to match the latest offerings from [<u>…insert successful company here…</u>], BUT, their [<u>…insert latest vaporware here…</u>] could be the [<u>…insert wildly successful product here…</u>]-killer.
PLAN B:
The [<u>…insert successful company here…</u>] has come up with great products lately, BUT, can they keep it up? [<u>…Sell VIAGRA adspace here…</u>].