“I’ve gotten ahold of Piper Jaffray’s targets for Leopard and the news is rosey, to say the least: Piper estimates Leopard will contribute $240 million to Apple’s topline in the current quarter. Piper contends that its numbers might be a bit aggressive, based on what the company tracked when Tiger was released,” Jim Goldman reports for CNBC.
“When Tiger shipped, the installed base was about 12 million users. The installed base today is more than twice that; around 23 million users. About 15% of Mac users upgraded to Tiger in its first six weeks of availability. About 66% ultimately upgraded,” Goldman reports.
Piper “says the revenue sharing is greater than what has been factored into other analysts’ target prices,” Goldman reports. “Piper is now modeling Apple to sell 3.4 million iPhones this calendar year; 12.9 million next year, and 45 million by calendar year 2009. That 2009 figure is way ahead of the rest of the Street, but that’s because Piper is anticipating average selling prices to fall significantly by then.”
“Based on the revenue sharing agreement with AT&T, Apple pockets $18 per phone per month today. The firm’s original estimate was only $6.50. By the end of calendar year 2009, because of a decline in average selling prices, the number will be around $9,” Goldman reports. “For that reason alone, Piper is raising its target to $250 from $222.”
Full article here.
Imagine the market cap. when AAPL is at 250.
First post hi hi hi….
That said, $250 stock price ??? This is insane. Or a very unrealistic PE… Apple would need to grow their sales of iPhone, iPod, Mac etc… Totally insane.
You’re wrong on all fronts. (But, then again, that’s just MY opinion, as is YOUR astute observation.)
How is 23 million “more than twice” of 12 million? Did this guy graduate from grade school?
“Imagine the market cap. when AAPL is at 250.”
…or you can just calculate it. $250 x 872.33M Shares…
@ The person who said I am wrong
What I mean is that the current Apple stock price takes already in consideration the future growth of the company. The PE ratio is 52, already. Apple’s got to raise their revenu and profit to have that multiple around 25, which is a “normal number”.
Now what Piper Jaffray is saying, means that the PE ratio will get even higher, since I don’t see how Apple is gonna raise dramatically their revenue for 2009. I mean, they will grow, but not that high that fast.
Had the guy said $250 for 2011, I would have said OK.
Not we meant about you having the first post…
“Not we meant about you having the first post…”
OK. It’s incredible how people are fast posting on this site. By the time I submitted my post, I was no longer the first one… maybe next time
@ installed base
“How is 23 million “more than twice” of 12 million? Did this guy graduate from grade school?”
I think their 23 million number is wrong. I seem to recall it being about 22 million last January and of course we’ve had a lot more Macs sold since then.
Everyone is missing the point that P/E for AAPL has fundamentally changed after they changed accounting practices to split various devices such as iPhone over a two year period.
This means that you have to factor in an extra two years’ worth of iPhone/iTV profits to the current ratios. The initial payment has already been collected but not reported.
The PE ratio of 52 is therefore not as bad as it seems. At a rough guess, A forward PE ratio of 30-35 is probably the new 25.
The forward PE is about 29 and the forward growth rate is about the same making the PEG (PE / growth) about 1 which is CHEAP.
The trailing PE of 50 with a growth rates from the last 2 years between 50-75%/year is also CHEAP
If we use a PE of 50 and a growth of 25% we get a PEG of 2 which is neither cheap nor expensive. The bottom line in my book is that AAPL deserves a high PE because of its growth. As long as it grows more than 25% per year a PE between 40 and 50 is justified. If it grows faster than that (look at the last few years) then multiple expansion (PE expansion) will be your friend if you own the stock.
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I don’t think aapl’s PE will trade at its growth rate or less because that would be too good a deal to pass up for most.
ARG
IS
THE
KEY
LAW OF LARGE NUMBERS
and an increasing limited number of available shares forcing companies to naked short sell
AAPL 275 by next year
250 by the end of this year seems a pretty safe guess.
Seems like stating the obvious!
@L and NYC Doc
Voila !!! It all comes to the growth of Apple. And this is the real challenge folks. The company will have to maintain a 30% or enve 40% growth for the next five years for the multiple to be friend. Just like Microsoft did between ’95 and 2000. In that matter for Apple, I easily can imagine iPhone sales to grow at that rate. But this would be very hard for iPod. For the Mac, I think Apple will need to innovate further more and come with a device no other PC manufacturer are selling. Something that would be a merge of the iPod Touch and a MacBook… somekind of ultra-portable media device that would be used as a productivity tool as well. Somekind of multithouch iMac nano like kind of thing. now when it comes to Apple TV, we would need movie rental and movies and TV shows on iTunes outside of the US. If all those are done, then, yes, 40% growth is possible… and even more.
In other words, it all depends on Apple, but for now, I don’t take a $250 for granted.
By the way, thanks for the clarification in regards of the accounting practice to split revenues over a year or two for iPhone and Apple TV
So, if you own shares of AAPL, Piper Jaffray ups yours? A bit rude but I think they mean well.
Anyone know Piper Jaffray’s track record on Apple Stock? Last year, last 5 years, 10?
Gene at Piper has traditionally been the harbinger of AAPL’s eventual stock price – he was the very first to throw a $100 ($50 adjusted) price target when the price was around $50 ($25 adjusted) a few years ago. Gene Munster is the man.
@L
key word “eventual”
Leopard and the news is rosey,
And maybe even ‘rosy’. Does no-one spell enny moor?
Shuld bee “dose”
as in “Dose no-one spel eny moor?
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