Analyst: Mac OS X Leopard could add $240 million to Apple’s next quarter; new ‘Newton’ coming?

Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster, in a note to clients this morning, compares the Mac OS X installed base at the time of Mac OS X 10.4 Tiger’s launch (12 million) and notes that Tiger sales accounted for $125 million in the launch quarter.

Munster writes, “The Mac OS X installed base is now approximately 23 million, so we expect Leopard to add approximately $240 million to the Dec. 2007 quarter. This assumes similar uptake rates to the Tiger launch, which saw 15% of the user base upgrade in just 6 weeks (eventually 66% of the user base upgraded to Tiger).”

Munster also looks for either a multi-touch PDA slightly larger than an iPhone (new Newton) or an ultra-thin, ultra-light Mac notebook to debut at Macworld Expo San Francisco 2008 in January, writing, “If Apple launches a new product at MacWorld in January,, we believe it will likely fall into one of these two categories.”

[Thanks to MacDailyNews Reader “Judge Bork” for the heads up.]

21 Comments

  1. Leopard sales will obsviously be better but I doubt it will double. I say that because in my experience a lot of regular users do not upgrade their OS often if ever.

    Tiger’s large share is mostly due to new mac purchases in the last year. The number of Macs in use has doubled since Tiger was released and therefore accounts for 50% of the OSX share.

    I would expect 5-10 % to upgrade in the first quarter which would be a miniumum of $150M at full retail price. Still the Apple Stores are a great way to get people to buy the new OS so we may be in for a surprise.

  2. Whatever nitwit started using the N-word (“Newton”) to describe a possible extension of the iPhone/iPod Touch technology I’d like to smack with a clue-by-four. Microsoft et al will jump on that one big-time and sow FUD faster than a cloud of crickets and eat a cornfield. Why does MDN give these twits yet another link to their drivel?

    It is a slow news Monday, that’s for sure.

  3. Newton Schmewton.

    Just pull the display off a MacBook, hard-wire it to a WACOM Cintiq tablet, duct tape them together and you’re done!

    You can bet the MicroShills and FUDsters would LEAP onto the Newton name faster than Bush on a photo-op.

    Tablet computers are proven failures. How many times has Microsoft tried to breathe life into the concept only to have it fall flat. And we’re seeing the end of days for PDAs.

    I doubt that something in-between an iPhone and MacBook would do very well. iPhone features, capable of running real applications, but with a 6″ or 7″ hi-res (for the size) screen, like 600×800 or 1024×768.

    I’m sure that there would be some niche users… medical, retail stock, maybe law-enforcement… that would love it. If I could run VectorWorks on something like that on it, it would be great for doing site surveys.

    But it would be one more thing to lug around, keep charged, sync and do maintainence on. It would have to be pretty much drop-dead incredible to beat all the negatives.

    Historically, people seem to prefer pocket-able devices. When they get too much larger, you may as well lug a full-featured laptop around.

    There’s the rub.

  4. Mr. Reese writes:

    “You can bet the MicroShills and FUDsters would LEAP onto the Newton name faster than Bush on a photo-op.”

    As in they won’t leap onto it all?

    If there ever was a cloistered POTUS, it has to be Bush. He hardly does speeches or press conferences much less photo ops.

    I think you need to substitute some other more applicable politician (recall Bill Clinton) to make your metaphor work.

    Thatisall

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