“I believe Apple TV is selling according to Apple’s expectations at present, which is somewhat north of 100,000 units sold this year. Why so few? Because Apple hasn’t yet introduced all the content and services that fulfill its vision for the product,” Carl Howe writes for Blackfriars’ Marketing.
Howe writes, “I believe that Apple has three features that will fulfill Steve Jobs claim that the Apple TV is destined to be ‘the new DVD player’ for consumers:”
• Movie rentals
• High-definition content
• Encrypted peer-to-peer (P2P) Internet distribution
Howe writes, “Why are we so bullish on Apple TV rather than joining the chorus claiming it’s just a losing product? It’s simple: unlike most of Apple’s products, Apple TV revenue is being deferred over 24 months to allow for software upgrades, just as the iPhone is. If it were just a product that missed the mark (unlikely, but always possible), Apple never would never have planned to defer the revenue from selling it; it would have treated it like an iPod and recorded the one-time revenue. But the 24-month amortization of the revenue indicates that Apple plans at least two years of enhancements and upgrades to the device.”
Howe believes that Apple TV could be worth more than $1.8 billion in fiscal 2009 for Apple.
More in the full article here.
Then what the hell is Apple waiting for? Get this show on the road and maybe I’ll buy one.
I’m one of the millions waiting for a few more bells and whistles before I buy. I’m very confident Apple TV will be successful…just needs a little time.
I’m hopeful they will release at least the “store” pretty soon. Even if it’s just for music for now it will be a start.
It’s still a great device just as it is though. It can only get better…
I think Apple is waiting for the content providers.
Apple TV was introduced just as the media giants were switching from thanking Apple for developing a new profitable distribution stream with iTunes to wanting a bigger piece of that pie.
Apple has very definite views on how things should be. They will not take what the content providers offer. They will wait until they get a deal that favors consumers and Apple over the media moguls.
I get the feeling Apple thought they had deals lined up for shortly after releasing the Apple TV. Then those deals fell through.
While NBC and others try other solutions to spite Apple, every video enabled iPod (from the nano up) and iPhone sold empowers Apple a bit more to get what they want.
Apple TV?
Nice try but MS Media Center is the trick!
You people are always trying to make the complex simple, and it’s beginning to really unnerve me!
I love my AppleTV. We use it for movies, TV shows, photos, and music. Great combination. Heck, the screensaver alone is mesmerizing.
I really want to record tv . . . . . i know other devices do that but I don’t want a bunch of devices . . . . same reason an iPhone is sitting on my desk – one device.
Content AND distribution are the kings of media. Once feature length HD films are available for rental, Apple TV will be the solution to access both.
I love my AppleTV too. Since I’m not a massive consumer of television, it saves me about $10/month. I get my shows without commercial, watch them when I want, and I am targeting better quality shows than when I would surf using cable. My time alive is spent doing what I want to, rather than being fed what other people want me to watch (commericals). It’s GREAT!!
/plus now podcasts are really fun
Apple needs to get on the ball with DVD style content. What I mean by this is:
1) Allow videos to have multiple subtitle options, as well as commentaries, bonus features, etc.
2) Allow collections of content (for example, video and photos from a birthday party). I shouldn’t have to go from my “Movies” catagory to my “Photos” catagory.
3) Allow an external hard drive to be connected to the USB port.
“Then what the hell is Apple waiting for? Get this show on the road and maybe I’ll buy one.”
Perhaps a few courses on product development, content licensing and distribution networks would shed a little light on your ridiculous comment.
Or do you think they just wiggle their noses and crap this stuff out their asses?
Anyone at MDN proofreads the headlines these days?
heres an article about a 3rd party doing movie rentals for AppleTV
http://www.macnn.com/articles/07/10/01/apple.tv.movie.rentals/
In other news , joost is now available for down loading, with out an invite, I would love to see joost on appleTV!
heres the link for the rentals
• Movie rentals
• High-definition content
• Encrypted peer-to-peer (P2P) Internet distribution
Unless Jobs can get the studios to provide more content (or at the very least stop them from pulling content, like Universal/NBC recently did), then non of the above is going to make Apple much money. And the last one may not get out of the planning stage.
Make AppleTV a DVR however, and at least the last feature starts to give it some real power. From what I’ve heard, the latest version of TiVo has it too, and it’s what makes paying a stupid monthly fee worth it.
I like AppleTVs’ existing features, and renting would be great too (I see eventual HD content as a given, not a selling point), but that’s all icing. For me the cake is a DVR.
No, that would be Microsoft.
Things that may make me buy an AppleTV (in order):
1. Cheaper price ($199)
2. HDTV content (1080i)
3. Movie rentals
4. DVR capability (no archiving capability needed).
The first iteration of AppleTV was a pathfinder that built on the FrontRow interface. It is interesting to compare the release of AppleTV to that of the iPod back in 2001. Given its current level of success, it is easy to forget that the iPod was released without the iTunes store for on-line content, and has relatively modest sales for the first couple of years.
Although the current incarnation of AppleTV has some definite limitations (use of laptop HDD form factor, lack of DVR functionality), it has great potential. But Microsoft and others are gunning for the internet media link to the growing base of high definition TVs in the household. So Apple needs to put some effort into AppleTV in the near term. It is possible that MacOS X 10.5 Leopard will be the catalyst/seed for the next generation AppleTV.
Is it me, or is it just a bit boring?
Can’t help feeling a slightly more memorable appearance would help it along a bit…
DogGone,
Currently Blu-Ray players are at about $500, and HD Blu-Ray movies are going for $25.
…And you want Apple to sell a $199 box to deliver HD content over the internet when the Hollywood Studios are already having a crap about selling BELOW dvd quality at $12.99. You really think they will allow Apple to offer HD content at similar prices? Not a chance.
I doubt AppleTV will ever have DVR. It conflicts with Apple’s model of pay-per-download.
Apple TV is one step behind, what i want is a better eyeTV
Hey everyone, I think the plumbing is at fault.
HD (1080i) content for 2-hour movies, let alone 22-minute TV shows, takes a lot more bandwidth than most people have. Hell, I have DSL and I feel it still takes too long to download a 30-minute audio podcast. I don’t even want to imagine deciding at 7:00 pm on Saturday night that I want to watch a movie and then waiting for freakin’ ever for the sucker to download in HD format. It takes less time for me to drive to my local Blockbuster.
I suspect old willy Jobs is waiting for more people to get fiber or cable delivery of their internet so that watching an HD movie will not involve a wait longer than the lines at Costco.
Everyone seems to be viewing TV as a TIVO/DVD replace. In other words, a device to view commercially produced media. I am happy with how TV enables the sharing of my personally produced media in the home entertainment area of my home. It used to be tied to my office computer. Decades of home movies, photos, my own music… it’s fantastic. Also, watching You Tube in large groups in the living room is more fun than doing it on my own. The ability to tap into digital copies of TV shows and Commercial Movies is gravy.
Everyone seems to be viewing TV as a TIVO/DVD replacement. In other words, a device to view commercially produced media. I am happy with how TV enables the sharing of my personally produced media in the home entertainment area of my home. It used to be tied to my office computer. Decades of home movies, photos, my own music… it’s fantastic. Also, watching You Tube in large groups in the living room is more fun than doing it on my own. The ability to tap into digital copies of TV shows and Commercial Movies is gravy.