Apple TV a work in progress, could pull in more than $1.8 billion for Apple is fiscal 2009

“I believe Apple TV is selling according to Apple’s expectations at present, which is somewhat north of 100,000 units sold this year. Why so few? Because Apple hasn’t yet introduced all the content and services that fulfill its vision for the product,” Carl Howe writes for Blackfriars’ Marketing.

Howe writes, “I believe that Apple has three features that will fulfill Steve Jobs claim that the Apple TV is destined to be ‘the new DVD player’ for consumers:”

• Movie rentals
• High-definition content
• Encrypted peer-to-peer (P2P) Internet distribution

Howe writes, “Why are we so bullish on Apple TV rather than joining the chorus claiming it’s just a losing product? It’s simple: unlike most of Apple’s products, Apple TV revenue is being deferred over 24 months to allow for software upgrades, just as the iPhone is. If it were just a product that missed the mark (unlikely, but always possible), Apple never would never have planned to defer the revenue from selling it; it would have treated it like an iPod and recorded the one-time revenue. But the 24-month amortization of the revenue indicates that Apple plans at least two years of enhancements and upgrades to the device.”

Howe believes that Apple TV could be worth more than $1.8 billion in fiscal 2009 for Apple.

More in the full article here.

39 Comments

  1. I think Apple is waiting for the content providers.

    Apple TV was introduced just as the media giants were switching from thanking Apple for developing a new profitable distribution stream with iTunes to wanting a bigger piece of that pie.

    Apple has very definite views on how things should be. They will not take what the content providers offer. They will wait until they get a deal that favors consumers and Apple over the media moguls.

    I get the feeling Apple thought they had deals lined up for shortly after releasing the Apple TV. Then those deals fell through.

    While NBC and others try other solutions to spite Apple, every video enabled iPod (from the nano up) and iPhone sold empowers Apple a bit more to get what they want.

  2. I love my AppleTV too. Since I’m not a massive consumer of television, it saves me about $10/month. I get my shows without commercial, watch them when I want, and I am targeting better quality shows than when I would surf using cable. My time alive is spent doing what I want to, rather than being fed what other people want me to watch (commericals). It’s GREAT!!

    /plus now podcasts are really fun

  3. Apple needs to get on the ball with DVD style content. What I mean by this is:

    1) Allow videos to have multiple subtitle options, as well as commentaries, bonus features, etc.
    2) Allow collections of content (for example, video and photos from a birthday party). I shouldn’t have to go from my “Movies” catagory to my “Photos” catagory.
    3) Allow an external hard drive to be connected to the USB port.

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