“Piper Jaffray has raised its price target for Apple (AAPL) from $160 to $205. up 28% which is stunning. Apple trades at $143 now. So, a stock that is up 130% over the last year would rise another 43% from the current price,” Douglas A. McIntyre opines for 24/7 Wall St.
“The new target price is based to a large extent on an estimate by the firm that Apple will sell 45 million iPhones in calendar year 2009, at an average price of $330,” McIntyre writes.
McIntyre describes Piper Jaffray’s forecast as “nutty,” writing, “The idea that Apple will sell a third as many phones at Motorola sells now is not credible… The Apple estimate also assumes that the larger handset companies will not come out with competing phones.”
Of Piper’s 12-month price target of $205 for Apple, McIntyre writes, “No way, no how.”
Full article here.
24/7 Wall St.’s website states, “The editors of 24/7 Wall St. do not own securities in companies that they write about. Other writers may have positions in companies and these are disclosed in their articles.” Since no such disclosure is contained within McIntyre’s article, we assume McIntyre has no stake in AAPL.
We believe that McIntyre is underestimating the excellence of iPhone, the power of word-of-mouth, and Apple’s ability to expand their iPhone product line at various price points (as they did with iPod), while overestimating competitors’ abilities to copy a device with over 200 patent applications that Apple has stated they plan to vigorously defend. McIntyre also seems to be totally discounting Mac growth, future iPods, and possible unreleased, unknown products from Apple.
We have iCal’ed McIntyre’s article, which we will revisit in 12-months or if AAPL shares hit $205 before a year elapses.
that’s why we invest in AAPL.
we understand that this company can break existing investing rules. it’s a risk, but the reward will be even sweeter than it already is. bottom line: AAPL has incredible growth potential for a stock that already grown incredibly. And, for some, that’s just too incredulous. not for me.
Douglas A. McIntyre is one of the most vicious Apple hating analysts. He has a history of sliming Apple. I love betting against him with my money.
No one can say for certain that AAPL will hit $200+ in 12 months, However… that said…. No one can say that it will NOT either.
will Douglas A. McIntyre be the new Laura Goldman?
let’s see in a year’s time…
I don’t believe AAPL will hit $205 either. I think Apple will split the stock before that happens
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Maybe since he has no position, he’s going to attempt to put of FUD to create a buying opportunity… Otherwise, why comment at all and risk joining Ms. Goldman…
Dear MDN,
While you’re iCal’ing Mr McIntyre, you might also note The Crow Roast. a site with many delicious recipies for cooking crow, and you might save a recipe posted on the Culinary Arts Blog for Sour Grapes and Humble Pie. You may wish to forward these culinary suggestions to Mr McIntyre next summer. You might also suggest that he accompany his dinner with the songs of Sheryl Crow.
Lars H,
If so, the split-adjusted figure will be just as valid in determining McIntyre’s fate.
My friends 60 year old dad just bought an 8 gb IPhone yesterday. He has never owned an IPod and he never used Itunes before. He just went into a Apple store and tried one out for 5 minutes before he decided that he had to have it. This thing is going to be so much bigger than any analyst can imagine. I think that 12 months from now people are going to say that $200 was conservative.
re: iCal
I sometimes use iCal as an alarm clock: it sends a signal to iTunes to play a specific “wake up” playlist in the morning. I also use iCal to email myself reminders. Is that what MDN means when they say they’ve iCal’ed it? Are there any other good uses for iCal?
Apple remembered the Mac. That way there’d be something to write about other than that damn telephone.
we need these opinions to help the stock
thanks doug
see you @ 250
I’m sure Nokia will come out with a competing phone…it just won’t compete very well.
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A year ago, many “analysts” would have said the same thing about Apple hitting $143.75 a share, “No way, no how.” At that time, the iPhone was just a rumor (one that had been circulating for years). Only the top people at Apple really know what it’s got in store during the coming 12 months. $205 very possible.
Apple is the epitome of Disruption
McIntyre is a no-nothing, pseudo-blogger on financial topics. I’ve read his comments on Apple in the past, and he doesn’t get it.
Having said that, I think Munster’s price target of $200 is a bit rich, and not a 12-month price target until we know more about how the iPhone is selling and what Apple has in the pipeline for the Fall.
AAPL is less likely to split with Google on board.
He’ll be sick as a pig when he discovers that the iPod phenomenon was as nothing to the upcoming iPhone one…
as of friday’s close, apple has exceeded google’s market value by over 4 billion dollars.
“The Apple estimate also assumes that the larger handset companies will not come out with competing phones.”
Options: (it’s not the phone any more it’s the OS)
#1. write an OS of their own that is a good or better than OS X – not likely
#2. License OS X from Apple – possible but not likely
#3. Go to Microsoft and be stuck with their garbage OS. Most likely. NOT a winner for a phone.
@Eric46162
While HP’s market cap, $127.12 billion, is now just around an easy curve in the road for Apple, Google’s, at $162.04 billion, will probably take the rest of the calendar year for Apple to equal
PJ often has the most optimistic price predictions. They typically set the high and other analysts fill in below that.
@MB
there are markets that those of us who lusted during the wiat for the iphone never dreamed of. people like mb’s friend’s dad. lots of people who bought and use (use is the operative word) an ipod, never even owned a portable cd player. the sustained growth of the iphone and its AAPL derivatives will not only reshape the phone market like it reshaped the mobile audio market, but it will redefine it as it redefined the mobile audio market.
i’m so giddy over using the iphone as a phone and mobile computer, i sometimes forget it even is an ipod! more than once people have asked to see the ipod when i’m using the phone features. having owned 2G thru 4G ipods including the short lived photo only version that cost as much as the iphone, having all that music and video along with me in just a phone is still something i’m adjusting to. that is the seductive attraction of AAPL products. they make you do things that not only were not possible, but you didn’t even want to do them because they were too hard. that is the active part of redefining a market.
How do you compete with Apple and its patents at this stage? Windows Surface does not yet fit into a phone! Any other way to do multi-touch?
Everybody knows AAPL will hit 200 in due time, solely based on the prospects of iPhone sales. The question is rather what will happen if Apple starts releasing its 200 iPhone patents on the rest of its product portfolio.
The ability of Apple to bring new technologies to the masses is astonishing. It will not go unnoticed. Even the most truthful pc-users will be tempted.
Smoke:
As of Friday’s close, Google’s Market Value stands at
$120, 393, 216, 640.00, while HP’s value is at
$127, 120, 872, 060.00.
link