24/7 Wall St.‘s Douglas A. McIntyre: No way, no how Apple hits $205 within 12-months

“Piper Jaffray has raised its price target for Apple (AAPL) from $160 to $205. up 28% which is stunning. Apple trades at $143 now. So, a stock that is up 130% over the last year would rise another 43% from the current price,” Douglas A. McIntyre opines for 24/7 Wall St.

“The new target price is based to a large extent on an estimate by the firm that Apple will sell 45 million iPhones in calendar year 2009, at an average price of $330,” McIntyre writes.

McIntyre describes Piper Jaffray’s forecast as “nutty,” writing, “The idea that Apple will sell a third as many phones at Motorola sells now is not credible… The Apple estimate also assumes that the larger handset companies will not come out with competing phones.”

Of Piper’s 12-month price target of $205 for Apple, McIntyre writes, “No way, no how.”

Full article here.
24/7 Wall St.’s website states, “The editors of 24/7 Wall St. do not own securities in companies that they write about. Other writers may have positions in companies and these are disclosed in their articles.” Since no such disclosure is contained within McIntyre’s article, we assume McIntyre has no stake in AAPL.

We believe that McIntyre is underestimating the excellence of iPhone, the power of word-of-mouth, and Apple’s ability to expand their iPhone product line at various price points (as they did with iPod), while overestimating competitors’ abilities to copy a device with over 200 patent applications that Apple has stated they plan to vigorously defend. McIntyre also seems to be totally discounting Mac growth, future iPods, and possible unreleased, unknown products from Apple.

We have iCal’ed McIntyre’s article, which we will revisit in 12-months or if AAPL shares hit $205 before a year elapses.

53 Comments

  1. that’s why we invest in AAPL.
    we understand that this company can break existing investing rules. it’s a risk, but the reward will be even sweeter than it already is. bottom line: AAPL has incredible growth potential for a stock that already grown incredibly. And, for some, that’s just too incredulous. not for me.

  2. Dear MDN,

    While you’re iCal’ing Mr McIntyre, you might also note The Crow Roast. a site with many delicious recipies for cooking crow, and you might save a recipe posted on the Culinary Arts Blog for Sour Grapes and Humble Pie. You may wish to forward these culinary suggestions to Mr McIntyre next summer. You might also suggest that he accompany his dinner with the songs of Sheryl Crow.

  3. My friends 60 year old dad just bought an 8 gb IPhone yesterday. He has never owned an IPod and he never used Itunes before. He just went into a Apple store and tried one out for 5 minutes before he decided that he had to have it. This thing is going to be so much bigger than any analyst can imagine. I think that 12 months from now people are going to say that $200 was conservative.

  4. re: iCal

    I sometimes use iCal as an alarm clock: it sends a signal to iTunes to play a specific “wake up” playlist in the morning. I also use iCal to email myself reminders. Is that what MDN means when they say they’ve iCal’ed it? Are there any other good uses for iCal?

  5. A year ago, many “analysts” would have said the same thing about Apple hitting $143.75 a share, “No way, no how.” At that time, the iPhone was just a rumor (one that had been circulating for years). Only the top people at Apple really know what it’s got in store during the coming 12 months. $205 very possible.

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