Strategy Analytics predicts that Apple’s new iPhone will account for 10-percent share of total smartphone sales in the United States by the end of 2007. Strategy Analytics defines a smartphone as a data-centric mobile phone with a multi-tasking operating-system. Numbers are rounded.
Neil Mawston, Associate Director at Strategy Analytics said via press release, “We forecast 20 million smartphones to be sold in the USA during 2007. We expect Apple and its iPhone portfolio to account for 2 million of that total, giving it a 10 percent share by the end of the year.”
Chris Ambrosio, Director of Wireless Device Strategies at Strategy Analytics, commented, “Apple has a strong brand and good retail presence; now it needs to deliver on the product. Competitive pricing, of course, will be critical, as will the device’s usability and reliability.”
David Kerr, Vice President at Strategy Analytics, added, “A critical question will be what percentage of iPhone buyers will be churning from other operators? A second key issue is whether the iPhone will draw users who would otherwise have bought Nokia N series music and multimedia devices, eroding their premium tier share, or will iPhone most dramatically impact the SEMC Walkman series fortunes?”
http://www.strategyanalytics.net/
Oh Microsoft must be having a great day with that news.
Wait for 2008….! For 10% is just the beginning.
$500!!! And its not a smartphone!
2 Million? I bet they’ve already sold that many.
What are Neil smoking? Odds are, come tomorrow Apple will issue a PR stating 1 million iPhones have been sold to-date. Only 2 million by years end? Please.
Try 5 – 6 million by years end, which will put Apple and iPhone in the 25% – 30% smart phone market share range.
Neil and his team are not accounting for market dynamics, and the market, due to iPhone is going to shift to iPhone in and of itself. Consumers are now going to want a device that truly does the web, cool navigation and full iPod capabilities. iPhone meets this new expection Apple created, which pushes the entire market to the iPhone solution.
Apple will have another million by the end of September (that would be 2 million there Neil…), and during the Christmas months another 3 – 4 million iPhones will be sold (thats 5 – 6 million iPhones Neil).
I really believe that estimate is much too low.
Christmas is coming and Apple’s goose is getting fat.
Didn’t I see a report about Wednesday of last week that AT&T had announced
1 million activations already?
yea, 1 million has already been confirmed, so its a given that they’ll easily get 2 million buy the end of the year.
i would say at least 10 million +
If you’re uncool, use a pocket protector, carry a big wad of keys on your belt, throw chairs, believe logic is the ultimate determiner of outcomes, then you can’t figure out the iPhone. These guys use PC’s. Bet on it.
“it needs to deliver on the product. Competitive pricing, of course, will be critical, as will the device’s usability and reliability.”
Done, done and DONE!!!!
He’s making the mistake many analysts make when it comes to Apple’s products.
He uses the ‘projected’ size of the smartphone market as it stands now, and doesn’t realize that Apple will create a much bigger market with this device.
In short, a lot of people will be buying an iPhone who would otherwise never have considered a smartphone.
An iWhat?
An iWhat?
An iWhat?
An iWhat?
Charko — exactly. Apple is “growing the pie” to use an old economics expression. I’m one of those who had no use for a cellphone (basically because of the butteating UIs I’ve seen and the whole featuritis bs). I am now considering an iPhone. As soon as it has voice recording capability, I’m there.
“yea, 1 million has already been confirmed”
Confirmed by who and/or what?
You’re right Charko. If the smartphone market is at 10 million and Apple sells 5 million, then the market could become 15 million and Apple will have 33.3% of the market (assuming the 10 million folks still go and purchase Curves or whatever, but they probably won’t- so Apple could have 40-50% of the market.)
Active user base of iPhone will be over 3mil by 1Jan08.
Again, I want the iPhone sans phone. I understand there’s a hack and a jump I can do to enable the phone and then select pay-as-I-go service for the phone part.
On topic, I would not be at all surprised to see a 15%+ market share by end of December. I’m sorry I waited as long as I did to buy aapl stock, but I’m really glad I didn’t wait any longer.
@ R2
Not so much “confirmed” but maybe “strongly suggested”. AT&T said they’d had over 1 million ‘activations’, so that’s a pretty good indicator. Actually, I like that more than the “20 million copies of Vista crammed into the channel” line. I’d love to know how many copies of Vista were actually activated and in use, but I don’t think Ballmer would be so proud of that number.
-c
@Jim Balsillie & Jack Plating
That was great! Thank you.
@R2
That was the famous anonymous source at AT$T.
R2………D2!
Let’s see: 1 million sold in 5 days, that’s 200,000 a day.
If I do the math, Strategy Analytics style, they are predicting around 5,650 to be sold daily on average for the rest of the year.
Now there are about 165 Apple stores in the US, and over 1800 AT&T stores.
That means these morons are predicting just under 3 iPhones/outlet sold daily on average for the rest of the year.
“As soon as it has voice recording capability, I’m there.”
We’ll as long as we are asking for features that perhaps everyone doesn’t want, as soon as they make the end of the iPhone capable of opening a bottle of beer, I’m in.