Positive iPhone reviews may mean last chance to buy Apple shares under $120

“Today may well have been your last chance to buy shares of Apple for under $120. The first reviews of the iPhone (by journalists actually allowed to test the device) were published on the Web at 3 p.m. PDT today and seem to be generally positive, with the typical caveats about Apple’s choice of cellphone carriers. Interestingly, some of the issues that were initially cause for concern seem to have fallen by the wayside. Indeed, two of the three reviewers below actually seem fond of the device’s virtual keyboard and all of them found its new screen to be durable,” John Paczkowski reports for AllThingsD.

MacDailyNews Note: That’s because Pogue is a spaz. It only took Walt Mossberg a few days; Pogue will get the hang of the iPhone keyboard sometime by late summer/early fall.

Full article here.

[Thanks to MacDailyNews Reader “LinuxGuy and Mac Prodigal Son” for the heads up.]

MacDailyNews Note: By the way, as Paczkowski notes via link in his article, that piece of garbage “First Review” of Apple iPhone that appeared in the NY Post yesterday was by hack Glenn Fleishman who was not one of those allowed two weeks with Apple iPhone. Some “review.” The real reviews of note, of which there are four so far, come from people who had actual access to iPhone for real long-term hands-on testing and are listed in the “Related articles” below.

29 Comments

  1. Blackberries can be wiped from remote, in case the device gets stolen or “forgotten” at the pub.
    Also, it’s not a “true” MSEX-client, as one of those shitty HPC-phones with the abysmal speech-quality.
    So, “someone”‘s IT-departement is mostly correct.
    But as noted above, CxO will love the device.
    OTOH, the fact that there’s only a single supplier for the network (AT&T) is – though not ideal – in no way uncommon in the IT-world.
    I’ve not heard anybody complain, that they can’t buy XP from someone other than MSFT ” width=”19″ height=”19″ alt=”wink” style=”border:0;” />

  2. You know, I consult with a lot of companies that can be considered “enterprises”. They use Exchange because they want internal, proprietary email communications sandboxed behind the firewall– with only selected messages being allowed out into the internet cloud. I can see why typical POP and IMAP are not acceptable. As far as I’m concerned it is OK that the iPhone is ideal for everyone. What product is? There is no reason why future iPhone models can’t be produced with stronger security and Exchange capabilities. Until they do, it is unfair to rag on IT guys who’s job it is to secure data. I say “give this enterprise support issue a rest.” Hopefully, some of the smarter IT guys will obtain an iPhone for testing and keep an open mind.

  3. “…Pogue is a spaz.” Ouch, I bet he reads this site. His video review yesterday was very good cheap entertainment, and he’s no MS shill either. Can’t you soften up that line with a smiley face at least?

  4. AAPL is currently at $120.94, so it may already be too late to buy under $120.

    However, keep in mind that AAPL is now trading in an uptrend, capped by broader market weakness.

    So there are two scenarios where AAPL may drop again:

    1. If the broader market drops (e.g. spooked by long term interest rates – watch the 10 year Treasury yield), then AAPL will most likely drop with it. AAPL has been trading with the market for the past several trading sessions.

    2. Once the iPhone release has happened, there may be a significant sell-the-news reaction. If such a dip happens, then look for AAPL to touch – but not break – significant support levels, such as the 20-day exponential moving average and/or the June monthly lows. That will be the buy signal.

    Another way to play AAPL is to wait for the next breakout. Specifically, the $125 level has recently proved to be tough resistance for AAPL.

    The next catalyst that could push AAPL above the $125 level is likely to be the next quarterly earnings, scheduled to be reported on July 25th after the market close. The analyst consensus estimate is $0.71 earnings per share on $5.282 billion in revenue.

    So watch the stock reaction after the earnings report. If it decisively breaks through the $125 level, the stock is a buy, well on its way to the $150 or $160 targets set by the analysts.

    If the stock cannot decisively break through the $125 level after the July 25th earnings report, then the stock will probably not do so until late 2007 or early 2008, i.e. during the Christmas season or the runup to MacWorld Expo in January.

    Happy investing!

  5. AAPL closed at $121.89, up $2.24 (1.87%) from yesterday’s close. This is not interesting, since it is well within the trading range ($120-$125) established in the second half of June.

    What is interesting is how AAPL started rising just as the broader market started lifting too. AAPL is very much following the market right now.

    Looking ahead, it is a good thing that the iPhone launch is on a Friday at 6pm local time, i.e. well after the stock markets have closed.

    As a result, the markets will have the whole weekend to digest news and reports about iPhone mania. By Monday morning there will probably be some preliminary figures of how many iPhones were sold, and how those figures compared with expectations.

    So there will indeed be a sell-the-news reaction in AAPL at market open on Monday, July 2 (the first trading day after the iPhone debut).

    But I suspect any such sell-the-news drop will be viewed as a buying opportunity by those who wanted to get into the stock but didn’t or hadn’t. So the actual price drop in AAPL may be limited.

    Will be interesting to see how it plays out.

  6. One last point:

    Be aware that the Federal Open Market Committee (i.e. the Federal Reserve) will be announcing its latest decision about the federal funds rate (i.e. short term interest rates) at 2:15pm ET tomorrow (Thursday, June 28).

    The Fed will leave interest rates where they are – this is a near certainty and already priced in by the market.

    The real interesting data will be in the text the Fed uses to indicate where interest rates may be heading later this year. Any hint of the Fed keeping rates where they are, or even better, rates dropping later this year, and the equity markets will be off to the races.

    That’s because there is a lot of pent up money looking for a home, plus we are in the last week of the quarter when window-dressing is common in mutual, pension, and hedge funds.

    One caveat: If the Fed changes its measure of inflation from core inflation (excluding energy and food costs) to headline inflation (including these costs), then that is bearish for the equity markets.

    That’s because in recent months, ethanol production has consumed an increasing percentage of the corn crop, which in turn has driven up prices in corn and many other commodities that go into food production costs.

    As a result, food and energy price fluctuations are less correlated with acts of god (e.g. bad weather, earthquakes, etc) and more with policy decisions as well as producer and consumer choices.

    Because headline inflation has tended to exceed core inflation in recent years, any move by the Fed to switch its inflation measure to headline inflation will increase the probability of interest rate hikes, and thus such a switch would be bearish for equity markets.

    Bottom line:
    1. Don’t trust any stock price moves before 2:15pm Thursday – because everyone will be on Fed-watch, and moves will lack conviction.
    2. Look at the text of the Fed announcement at 2:15pm Thursday for any signs of interest rates staying constant or decreasing later this year. That’s bullish for stocks.
    3. Watch out for any sign of the Fed switching its inflation measure from core inflation to headline inflation – that’s bearish for stocks.

  7. From MDN archive
    MoMo Trader Oct 23, 06 – 01:49 pm
    “The AAPL breakout above $80 today may not be sustainable…..”

    MoMo Trader Oct 23, 06 – 02:17 pm
    “My prediction is that AAPL will not be able to sustain a rally about $80 until there is further clarity on the options investigations, and if that isn’t resolved soon, AAPL will in the short term head downards, probably to the low $70s or possibly high $60s”

    We can see how wrong this guy’s predictions turned out to be. Lots of very impressive sounding words, but they were all pointing in the wrong direction. AAPL has gone up by 50% since then.

  8. AlanAudio, you’re welcome to ignore my postings if you disagree or don’t care for them.

    But you’re falsely implying (“AAPL has gone up by 50% since then”) that back in October 2006 I was predicting where AAPL would be eight months later. I did no such thing back then — and even the most cursory reading of my posts make it plain it is simply wrong to claim otherwise.

    Let me spell it out for you.

    Look carefully at the text of my October 23, 2006 posting that you quoted. See the words “short term” in them? In case you are not aware, on Wall St. the words “short term” typically indicates one to three months, which in this case would indicate October through December.

    No Wall St. commentator would use “short term” to describe the eight month timescale you appear to be using — October through June. Clearly my prediction was much shorter than that.

    What about the substance of my prediction, that the stock option investigation would remain a significant overhand on any gains in the stock, until Apple clarified the investigation?

    This proved entirely correct. The gains in AAPL during the holiday quarter (14.3% from my prediction date to the day after Thanksgiving) were entirely erased — and additional losses incurred — on the very day (12/27/2006) the market was reminded of the ongoing stock options investigation.

    And the very day (12/29/2006) that Apple finally restated its results and clarified the stock options investigation to the market’s satisfaction, the stock recouped all its losses, and started a significant uptrend.

    What about my quantitative prediction on how low AAPL might drop? I was wrong on precisely how low AAPL would dip. The low turned out to be $76.77 (intraday low on 12/27/2006) instead of my predicted “low $70s or high $60s” — but I wasn’t that far off quantitatively, and I certainly got it right qualitatively on the short term implications of the ongoing stock options investigation.

    So, AlanAudio, you have every right to ignore my postings in the future, for whatsoever reason, if you wish. But if you do intend to comment on my postings, please take a moment to read them carefully enough to actually comprehend what I am writing about.

    Thank you.

  9. I wrote: “The gains in AAPL during the holiday quarter (14.3% from my prediction date to the day after Thanksgiving) were entirely erased — and additional losses incurred — on the very day (12/27/2006) the market was reminded of the ongoing stock options investigation.”

    To clarify, AAPL gained 14.3% from the date of my prediction (October 23, 2006) to the Monday after Thanksgiving (November 27, 2006).

    Then the stock started a slow downward grind, losing 13.2% until December 26, 2006.

    On December 27, 2006 the news hit that the stock option investigation was still very much ongoing, and the stock dropped another 5% to an intraday low of $76.77.

    I also wrote: “And the very day (12/29/2006) that Apple finally restated its results and clarified the stock options investigation to the market’s satisfaction, the stock recouped all its losses, and started a significant uptrend.”

    To clarify:

    On December 29, 2006, Apple filed its restated financial results, and the stock quickly popped back to an intraday high of $85.40.

    The stock then stayed around the $85 level, closing at $85.47 on January 8, 2007, the day before Steve Job’s keynote at MacWorld Expo.

    The stock spiked to $97 during the Expo keynote, and then trended back down to the $83 area in February. A real uptrend in the stock actually didn’t start until late March, when the stock headed back into the mid-$90s and then on to the $100s after the April earnings report.

    So I was right about the effects of the stock option investigation, but my wording about the gains and losses and uptrends were less than clear. Hopefully this follow up has made it unambiguous.

    Sorry for any confusion that my initial wording may have caused.

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