Analysts’ estimates for Apple iPhone unit sales for 2007 and 2008 run wide gamut

“Apple Inc., whose market value passed $100 billion in May as euphoria mounted over its iPhone, may be facing investor expectations that are too high,” Connie Guglielmo reports for Bloomberg.

MacDailyNews Note: Or perhaps they’re too low, just as their consensus quarterly revenue estimates for Apple have consistently been for years?

“Apple may sell as many as 200,000 iPhones in the product’s first two days on the market this week and as many as 3 million in the second half of the year, according to the most optimistic analyst estimates. Apple, in its only public forecast, says it plans to sell 10 million next year,” Guglielmo reports.

“Sales at those levels would outdo the iPod, Apple’s best- selling product to date, for comparable periods. The danger is that Apple may fall short of projections for initial sales and damp investor enthusiasm for the product,” Guglielmo reports. “‘There’s definitely a lot of buzz,’ said Andy Hargreaves, an analyst at Pacific Crest Securities in Portland, Oregon. ‘If they only sell 100,000, that would be bad’ and the stock will fall. Hargreaves is one of two analysts predicting two-day sales of 200,000.”

“Analysts don’t expect the iPhone to have a significant effect on Apple’s revenue this year or next because the company said in April it will recognize revenue from sales of the device over two years, rather than in the quarter it’s sold,” Guglielmo reports. “San Antonio-based AT&T may pay Apple $5 to $10 per month per subscriber, said UBS analyst Benjamin Reitzes in New York. He estimates sales of 150,000 iPhones on June 29 and June 30, the last two days of Apple’s third quarter.”

Investment firms’ estimates for unit sales of Apple iPhone:

(Firm: Fiscal Year Ending Sept. 2007, Fiscal Year Ending Sept. 2008)

• American Technology Research: 250,000, N/A
• Bear Stearns & Co: 650,000, N/A
• Credit Suisse: 1.7 million, 12.3 million
• Pacific Crest Securities: 800,000, 4.8 million
• Piper Jaffray & Co: 1.2 million, 8 million
• UBS AG: 950,000, 8.1 million

Source: Analyst research reports

More in the full article here.

24 Comments

  1. I’d just like to reiterate that analysts have no special training & can get a job as an analyst right out of college. In other words, they have NO KNOWLEDGE OF WHAT THEY SPEAK WHATSOEVER. Do not trust analysts.

  2. The analysts’ estimates of iPhone sales are amazingly LOW! Of the three that include an estimate for 2008, only one (CSFB) seems to believe that iPhone sales will exceed Apple’s estimate of 10 Million. If these analysts reflect what the market truly believes about iPhone sales, than Apple stock is hugely undervalued right now. Apple has always estimated very conservatively–and has nearly always beaten its own estimates by a good margin. I believe CFSB’s esimates are the MINIMUM; in fact, I will bet (through Apple stock) that Apple will sell at LEAST 35% more iPhones than they are currently projecting.

  3. “Apple may sell as many as 200,000 iPhones in the product’s first two days…”

    or as many as 400,000 iPhones, if initial inventory is that high.

    Huge expectations are in order, not pessimism. I’m not selling any of my AAPL this week.

  4. I agree with Jake. The best forecast for the future is whaty has happened in the past, and past performance. I realize it’s a totally different product, I’m just speaking of estimating… It’s the only actual real data there is. I think it’s histerical that people get paid to guess wildly about something that only a few people heve even seen for real!!!! It will be all about the network. The product is amazing… but can the networ support it? That is the question!

    -Pi

  5. Apple has consistently underestimated demand for it’s products in the past (with the notable exception of the cube). I have no doubt that by Saturday morning anyone who hasn’t purchased an iPhone will be put on the back-order list. That is the reason I’m going to camp out in front of an Apple store on Friday. As a person who has been on the waiting list before, I can tell you nothing kills the buzz more than being told “we had no idea we would sell so many”.

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