“Apple Inc., whose market value passed $100 billion in May as euphoria mounted over its iPhone, may be facing investor expectations that are too high,” Connie Guglielmo reports for Bloomberg.
MacDailyNews Note: Or perhaps they’re too low, just as their consensus quarterly revenue estimates for Apple have consistently been for years?
“Apple may sell as many as 200,000 iPhones in the product’s first two days on the market this week and as many as 3 million in the second half of the year, according to the most optimistic analyst estimates. Apple, in its only public forecast, says it plans to sell 10 million next year,” Guglielmo reports.
“Sales at those levels would outdo the iPod, Apple’s best- selling product to date, for comparable periods. The danger is that Apple may fall short of projections for initial sales and damp investor enthusiasm for the product,” Guglielmo reports. “‘There’s definitely a lot of buzz,’ said Andy Hargreaves, an analyst at Pacific Crest Securities in Portland, Oregon. ‘If they only sell 100,000, that would be bad’ and the stock will fall. Hargreaves is one of two analysts predicting two-day sales of 200,000.”
“Analysts don’t expect the iPhone to have a significant effect on Apple’s revenue this year or next because the company said in April it will recognize revenue from sales of the device over two years, rather than in the quarter it’s sold,” Guglielmo reports. “San Antonio-based AT&T may pay Apple $5 to $10 per month per subscriber, said UBS analyst Benjamin Reitzes in New York. He estimates sales of 150,000 iPhones on June 29 and June 30, the last two days of Apple’s third quarter.”
Investment firms’ estimates for unit sales of Apple iPhone:
(Firm: Fiscal Year Ending Sept. 2007, Fiscal Year Ending Sept. 2008)
• American Technology Research: 250,000, N/A
• Bear Stearns & Co: 650,000, N/A
• Credit Suisse: 1.7 million, 12.3 million
• Pacific Crest Securities: 800,000, 4.8 million
• Piper Jaffray & Co: 1.2 million, 8 million
• UBS AG: 950,000, 8.1 million
Source: Analyst research reports
More in the full article here.