Apple Mac grabs 7.6% home computer market share; iPhone to sell 100m units per year within 10 years

In a sidebar accompanying the article “iPhone mania nears fever pitch,” which we’ll get to in a moment, USA Today reports that “home computer market share” for Apple Mac in May 2004 stood at 3.2% and has now rocketed to 7.6% in May 2007. Those figures, which also accompany iPod and iTunes numbers, are sourced: “Apple, USA Today research, Wolf Bytes, IAG Research. By process of elimination, knowing what each source provides, we assume that the market share number came from USA Today research. We are also assuming these figures pertain to the U.S. market as opposed to worldwide which have always been lower historically.

Now, for the iPhone stuff:

Jefferson Graham reports for USA Today, “June 29 is the day many gear-heads have marked on their calendars as iDay, the release of what independent analyst Richard Doherty calls “the most eagerly awaited consumer technology device of the last 20 years.”

“The iPhone is being sold only at Apple’s 200 retail stores, Apple’s website and nearly 1,800 AT&T (formerly Cingular) stores beginning at 6 p.m. local time across the country. AT&T says it will close its stores at 4:30 p.m. and reopen at 6 p.m. Apple would not comment on its plans. No pre-orders are being accepted. Fans are expected to camp out in front of stores for days,” Graham reports.

“Online discussion boards debate shopping scenarios: Should you stand in line with mobs at a big urban store, only to discover they have only a handful of phones? Or go out to the suburbs and try your luck with a smaller, less-busy store?” Graham reports. “Doherty says that big urban outlets generally receive bigger supplies of must-have products, such as the Nintendo Wii and Sony PlayStation 3. He recommends going to the busiest stores that do the most volume.”

Graham reports, “AT&T won’t say how much its data plan for the iPhone will cost. A current “unlimited” data plan — which makes sense if you’re going to be surfing the Web from the phone — is $20 monthly. Couple that with a 900-minute $59.99 monthly voice plan and yearly usage costs could approach $1,000.”

“Gene Munster, who covers Apple for investment firm Piper Jaffray, says the iPhone could nearly double the size of Apple within two years. Apple revenue is now at $24 billion. Munster projects iPhone sales could push that to $42 billion — including $15 billion in iPhone sales — by 2009,” Graham reports. “It’s simple math, Munster says: The wireless industry is 12 times the size of the digital music player market that Apple dominates… ‘Within 10 years, I see Apple selling 100 million phones a year,’ says Charles Wolf, an independent analyst who has covered Apple for 22 years. “Apple will have 7% of the phone market.”

More in the full article here.

25 Comments

  1. Raymond – how much are you paying a month now for cellular service? discount that from the $1000 because it is a replacement cost.

    If you want a voice plan, you will have those costs regardless of the phone you use. If you don’t want to use the data plan (why?) then don’t get the $20 unlimited plan – pay as you go or something. It does not add to the cost of the phone. The phone gives you access to more features you would not otherwise be using because of the lack of access.

  2. I’m still agog over Mac owning over 7% of the US market. And, that would be the entire market, not just it’s niche. I guess the iMac, MacBook and Mac mini (I want a ‘midi, thanks) are drawing people into that niche that would not normally be there … still. If that niche is only 20%-25% of the total market, that would make Apple the big frog in that pond. “That pond” being the high end of the market, from $1,000 to $5,000 – the Good Stuff.

    DLMeyer – the Voice of G.L.Horton’s Stage Page Pod Cast

  3. Tossing out a $1,000 / year figure is just silly.

    Going the other way, if you keep your iPhone for 3 years, take the 900 minute plan and the unlimited data plan, having an iPhone will cost about what you’d spend imbibing one latté per day. ($4.40 – making a huge assumption that my math is correct!)

    I’ll take an iPhone over a latté any day.

  4. I know some DINKs who have no landline at home. Home cable is only for internet and cable TV. Now they’re getting rid of the cable TV since they never watch it.

    Now they can potentially get rid of the cable entirely since they can do their internet banking & surfing anywhere on their iPhone. What you save on home cable goes a long way towards the iPhone data costs. I’d keep the cable internet for my Mac, aTV, WiiConnect24, iPhone WiFi and Skype.

  5. Here’s something to chew on…

    If Apple are receiving a 5% kick-back from AT&T (and their other partners) from the customers’ service plans (for two years) and the average monthly bill is $50, Apple – even on a conservative 40 million phones/year – would be receiving (80M x $50)*5% (i.e. $200M) per month: that’s right – $2.4 billion every year just in network commissions, which is – to all intents and purposes – pure profit.

    Any “tweak” on that model makes the figures even more incredible.

    If the iPhone family (for this is what it must ultimately become) is a runaway phenomenon and sells 75 million units a year (7.5% of today’s market) and the figure becomes (150M * $50)*5% or $375M per month. What if the average plan is $80? Apple’s take now increases to $600M per month. And if the commission is 7.5%, Apple’s global take annually would be over $10 billion, plus the $30 billion odd that it would make from handsets.

    Assume that a rump iPod business continues selling around 50M units annually at around $180.00/unit: that’s another $9 billion.

    A further assumption would be that the “halo” effect would continue building and Apple might increase CPU sales to a consistent 10 million units annually; at current levels, Apple would look to sales of $12.5 billion.

    So that’s $61.5 billion and we’re not even into talking about the “incidentals” of Apple’s business, such as iTS or the pro software title, which currently generate around $1.25 billion every quarter.

    If you take all of these areas into account, Apple might be a $70 billion business in three or four years generating a perfectly conceivable $10 billion in profit.

    Put a P/E multiplier on that of 33 – which is conservative at the moment (39) – and Apple might be worth $330 billion; if you want to know why Microsoft has its astroturfers working 24/7, there’s your answer – it fears an Apple which is able to compete financially whilst being more able to deliver a better “innovation on investment” ratio.

    I don’t normally do the MW thing, but mine is currently ‘blood’! You can draw your own meaning.

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