“The launch of Apple’s iPhone is just two weeks away — and any day now, we’ll get some real information about the model’s pivotal features and associated service contract,” Tero Kuittinen reports for RealMoney.
“It is almost unprecedented that we know so little about a high-profile mobile phone this close to its launch. We do, of course, know that the 4GB model is priced at $499 and the 8GB model at $599. However, the true price of a mobile phone is a combination of the device’s price, the applications it offers and the price of the service contract,” Kuittinen reports.
“Needless to say, some recent projections for iPhone sales have been fever dreams, particularly those calling for a 7% U.S. market share by 2009. That would mean taking over 30% of AT&T’s entire phone range in just two years,” Kuittinen reports. “Even the oft-cited 1% global share is an astounding goal; the market-share range for all mobile phones that retail for $500 or more is about 2% to 3%.”
Kuittinen reports, “Surely, iPhone shipments will sell out during the third quarter; the 2 million to 3 million American Apple loyalists are in the bag, no matter what the specifications are. But modeling sales beyond the first wave will be extremely tough.”
Kuittinen reports, “I’m not sure most investors realize what a high-wire act Apple is now attempting. Yet its share price has hardly wobbled after a stunning run-up through the first half of the year. Faith in the company has been absolute, even though every shareholder I’ve talked to is well aware of the media backlash scheduled to ramp up around June 18.”
Full article here.
The FUD campaign and media backlash started immediately after iPhone was unveiled (predicted quite accurately by our own SteveJack: The massive FUD campaign against Apple’s iPhone ramps up – January 10, 2007). Jobs help us if it ramps up any further!
It will come in waves soon, and it will be for journalists to get web-hits and thus advertising dollars.
Outside of this group of morons, iPhone will blow away sales figures, and iPhone owner’s friends will see it and want one. It’s that good.
As iTunes becomes the portal for EVERYTHING, Apple will usurp Windows. Who cares about backlash? The tide has already begun to turn. Accept it…
MW “else,” as in “Or….”
What does media backlash mean (for the non-English speaker that I am)?
To Jeff: back lash in this sense can be said to mean a lot of press or internet articles that denigrate Apple’s products and are intended to spread fear, uncertainty and doubt (FUD). Hopes this helps. In a literal sense, backlash means hitting back, as in using the lash (whip) to hit back.
media backlash = the media gets out the lash and will try to make the people do it’s bidding
I don’t see how their can’t be a media backlash. So many details of the phone–everything from whether or not it can text message to what the price of a contract will be–are completely unknown only two weeks before launch.
There are only a couple of people that report using the virtual keyboard–one likes it, the other didn’t but wants to give it time–which is not much of a knowledge pool to use assessing a completely new interface.
It is unknown what third party capabilities the phone will end up being able to have.
Etc.
Many people have poured into this void huge expectations for the phone.
How can there not be a backlash once the iPhone is a reality instead of a dream?
The dearth of information provided by Apple has created hysteria over the product, but also some very, very huge expectations that the released product will have to live up to.
MDN – You is very, very funny
…”Jobs help us if it ramps up any further!”
“It is almost unprecedented that we know so little about a high-profile mobile phone this close to its launch.
I wonder if Apple media savvy will be catchy to ATT and others… like a virus. Wouldn’t it be weird if over the coming years more and more companies began to operate like Apple, not announcing products (usually) until they’re ready to ship and holding back all the sumptuous details until the last minute (as is certainly still the case with more than a few “top secrets” of leopard (one hopes))?
Would that make Apple less special, as they would become less unique?
Looks like the guy found a new take on the iPhone: let’s write about the negs and what might be not happening. Good for him. But I have looked around the current phone offerings. There isn’t much exciting stuff out there. Except the high-end N95 and then the keyboard-attached smarties. Unless you need the “blackberry/treo” look, I’m out of luck! I prefer my E815 over a Razor (s/w sucks).
Let’s imagine Apple will come out with an entry-level iPhone. Same interface, no WiFi, just a plain iPod-phone. I bet all of the high market share predictions will come through.
The greatest FUD will come from people who miss out on acquiring an iphone in the first and second wave.
First wave = names held by AT&T in the hope that that translates to a definate reservation.
Second wave = the second shipment of iphones after the first shipment is sold out.
The worst FUD will be from the second group who will probably think that by turning people off the iphone, it will increase thier chance to acquire one at the third shipment.
Of course do not discount the rivals, Nokia, Sony Ericsson, Phillips, Prada etc. The more people they can turn off, the more handsets they hope to sell, they have already launched their attack, check this news item out.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/technology/6751605.stm
The backlash will be intense because it will be fueled by PR flaks from multiple markets.
The handset makers will spread FUD because they fear losing market share.
The phone networks will spread FUD because their entire business model is being challenged by Apple’s insistence on building and marketing the handset the Apple way.
The mobile OS manufacturers (principally MS) will spread FUD because of the market share issue, and because Apple has grown too big.
And many mainstream media will spread FUD because it’s cool to take down the hot property, and right now Apple is hot.
There are literally billions of dollars at stake. The status quo will not take it lying down. It is going to be brutal. The good news is that, as with the iPod, it is ultimately the market that decides. There’s no doubt that this is a gamble for Apple, but their track record should give investors some reason for comfort.
So she expects the 3 million to sell out in the 3rd quarter, which I think is still only a US release. That’s going to be damn impressive.
Now Apple only has to sell 7 million more during a release in Britain, Europe, and Japan?
How is this going to be a bad thing when the company announces it sold over
16 miillion phones by the end of 2008?
Yea, I can pick numbers too out of thin air, they’re everywhere.
What is gonna happen when people actually see one in action?
Good points here. I agree with OpJ. Backlash is inevitable when we know so little and expectations have grown so high.
And I would add that there are so many media/blogger types that would love to give Apple (and Apple fans) a comeuppance. Lets be prepared for the onslaught and not overreact. Because really, they’re all just jealous
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And when any backlash occurs, the media will blame Apple for hyping the iPhone too much, completely forgetting the fact that it’s been the media that has done all of the hyping.
I also predict that Apple will sell well over 500 iPhones through the end of this year.
I feel sure I’ll be right about one of these two statements.
Remember kids: Wir sind Helden rocks!
– “I still can’t believe this! All this hype for something so ridiculous! Who cares about an MP3 player?”
– “All that hype for an MP3 player? Break-thru digital device? The Reality Distiortion Field is starting to warp Steve’s mind if he thinks for one second that this thing is gonna take off.”
– “Better bring that price down or you wont sell any of these babies”
Comments from clueless MDN readers after the 2001 iPod introduction.
Bozos,
S.
“the 2 million to 3 million American Apple loyalists are in the bag”
No, we are only “in the bag” when Apple comes out with an insanely great product that we can use. The fact that Apple has been doing just that for a while now is not Apple’s fault. Well, actually it is.
“”It is almost unprecedented that we know so little about a high-profile mobile phone this close to its launch.”
Actually, it’s almost unprecedented that we know so much about a product before it is even launched.
Hmm, what else do you expect from Finnish guy .. should he say that iPhone is better than Nokia – Finland based company?
It is almost unprecedented that we CARE so MUCH about a high-profile mobile phone.
http://macdailynews.com/index.php/weblog/comments/13934/
MW: show
Show me the backlash. I’ll show YOU a BACK LASH.
Yes, the media backlash will come in waves, however the iPhone buying spree will keep coming in bigger and bigger waves, especially as new cheaper versions keep coming out.
Just like the iPod, the backlash and iPod-killers kept coming in waves, but they never established a beachhead, they just got steamrolled by the iPod/iTunes/iTMS juggernaut.
“everything from whether or not it can text message to what the price of a contract will be”
sms text messaging was demoed in the keynote.
http://www.apple.com/iphone/phone/
“Needless to say, some recent projections for iPhone sales have been fever dreams, particularly those calling for a 7% U.S. market share by 2009. That would mean taking over 30% of AT&T’s entire phone range in just two years,” Kuittinen reports.
Only if AT&T didn’t get a single new customer in the process. This guy is a moron. Especially considering that Motorola and Nokia have 30% of certian carriers phone ranges (although including various price points including some Apple doesn’t want).
Also, I believe that the market for MP3 players $500 or more was also 2-3% when the ipod was launched. It did quite well anyway, and the price came down and did even better. I think it is safe to assume the same for the iPhone.