Caris & Co. hikes Apple iPhone sales target to 17M units in ‘08, 25M in ‘09

“Shebly Seyrafi, an analyst with Caris & Co., this morning raised his price target for Apple (AAPL) to $115 from $110, asserting that iPod sales in the June quarter should be up from the March quarter. Seyrafi says he now sees iPod units in the quarter growing to 11.9 million units from 10.5 million in Q1; his previous forecast called for a decline to 10 million units,” Eric Savitz blogs for Barron’s.

“He also sees upside for the iPhone, and suggests that his already startling numbers could be too low. Seyrafi expects 17 million units in fiscal 2008 and 25 million in fiscal 2009 – remember that Apple CEO Steve Jobs had predicted getting to 1% global market share, or about 10 million phones, in the first year,” Savitz reports.

MacDailyNews Note: Apple CEO Steve Jobs’ publicly stated target is 10 million iPhone units by end of 2008, not “in the first year.” iPhone is expected to begin shipping in June 2007.

Savitz reports, “Seyrafi raised EPS estimates to $3.52 from $3.43 for the September 2007 fiscal year; to $3.73 from $3.54 for ‘08, and to $4.42 from $4.21 for ‘09.”

Full article here.

[Thanks to MacDailyNews Reader “jalex” for the heads up.]

18 Comments

  1. My question about the next iPod is about wifi. We all know the next iPod will have the same form factor as the iPhone, but without the phone, but will it have wifi so you could potentially use VOIP?

  2. I was wondering how Apple will change the 6th gen iPod Take into consideration how careful they are not to have product features overlap. The NANO could play videos but they won’t incorporate it.
    The 5.5 iPod could be used with Nike but they don’t (claim HD) , I run with my 3G ipod and it’s still ticking.
    They will be careful where features overlap and I don’t mean just the phone part. More games. Flash Drive across the board? Better battery life?

    Guessing Wi-Fi is for iPhone only. Don’t want people using VoIP to take away from Att sales.

    I might even go so far as to say the iPod doesn’t get the widescreen. You heard it hear first.

    Need to have people buying the higher margin iPhone, you know?

  3. I love how these guys come up with numbers.

    Here’s a safe bet: Apple were conservative with their 10M number in 2008.

    As for applicability of the tech for true iPods. The widescreen pod will likely be the next update for the HD units. Lot of people like myself are waiting for such a unit.

    I have a 3G iPod and have found once you get to a certain pace the HD skips all the time. So I ended up getting a shuffle and then a nano for running. The sports kit is superb and I understand why Apple chose to limit it to the nano.

    As for video in the nano – are you kidding me? The photos are hardly worth viewing let alone moving images. The processor too probably can’t handle it either.

  4. If the dude is right and the P/E multiple holds steady, then Apple stock would appreciate about 30% or so over the next two years. Of course, those are bigs ifs. But I feel good about Apple short term and long term.

  5. I am anticipating a big rush to get one soonest. I promised my kid an iPhone for graduation. I’m thinking I might get one for myself, as well, though I originally planned to wait for iteration 2.

  6. What does it mean when an analyst says they are raising, or lowering, a target price for a stock? I mean, when they say they are raising AAPL to $115 when do they mean it is expected to hit $115? Next week, next month, next year, wometime within AAPL’s fiscal year? Or do they just kinda leave it open so they are more likely to be correct?

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